I'm in Central Alabama, about 80 miles south of Birmingham. So I'm pretty sure that we're going to get wind and rain.
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Archive Former Major Hurricane Irma
- Thread starter JayF
- Start date
MikeP
Member
Per 33/40......
The latest run of the GFS is mostly out and this run is in pretty close agreement to the forecast track from the National Hurricane Center and to the earlier European model run. According to this run, Hurricane Irma should start rapid intensification within the next 24 hours and could climb back into category 5 strength before landfall.
Expected point of landfall in the latest GFS run will occur on early Sunday morning before dawn (2:00AM-5:00AM EDT) as a category 5, with winds up to 157 knots, or up to 180 MPH. Barometric pressure is expected to be around 898mb when crossing the Keys and making landfall in the Everglades. If this holds true, Irma will have the 2nd lowest pressure at landfall, just behind the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane at 892m
The latest run of the GFS is mostly out and this run is in pretty close agreement to the forecast track from the National Hurricane Center and to the earlier European model run. According to this run, Hurricane Irma should start rapid intensification within the next 24 hours and could climb back into category 5 strength before landfall.
Expected point of landfall in the latest GFS run will occur on early Sunday morning before dawn (2:00AM-5:00AM EDT) as a category 5, with winds up to 157 knots, or up to 180 MPH. Barometric pressure is expected to be around 898mb when crossing the Keys and making landfall in the Everglades. If this holds true, Irma will have the 2nd lowest pressure at landfall, just behind the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane at 892m
TuckerTerry
Member
Per whom? My God ...this is going to be beyond devastating. Landfall still Miami? Or further West?
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Alabama 33/40 home of James Spann
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SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 76.0W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.31 INCHES
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 76.0W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.31 INCHES
TuckerTerry
Member
Glenn and Brad are telling us that we're dodging a bullet. <sigh>
From the NWS for us ,
-- Changed Discussion --
Sunday looks to be the calm before the storm. Models showing
strong surface high moving into the northeastern states, while
Hurricane Irma will be moving into southern Florida. Low-level
flow on Sunday will be out of the northeast, but there may be
some moisture increase aloft well ahead of Irma, to continue
with 20 percent pops late in the day. Wind speeds will be on the
increase throughout the day, and can not rule out at least a
lake wind advisory being required during the day and even into
the early evening. Sunday night will see winds continue to
increase as Irma tracks northward through Florida. Temperatures
remain cooler than normal.
Irma impacts will be felt more on Monday and into Monday night.
NHC has the storm across northeastern Florida Monday morning,
then tracks it northwestward towards Atlanta into Tuesday
morning. This puts the entire cwa firmly in the right half of
the storm. Strongest winds to be felt across the CSRA through
the day on Monday, with Tropical Storm force winds possible.
Expect that at least a Wind Advisory for much of the cwa for
Monday, with the possibility of a High Wind Watch/Warning also
being required for western portions of the cwa. With the current
track, Monday should see the outer rainbands moving across the
area at times throughout the day and into the overnight hours.
With the expected strong shear and very strong winds aloft,
there should be a threat of seeing isolated tropical tornadoes
as the right front quadrant of the storm moves through. The
other issue will be the heavy rain potential. With plenty of
deep moisture being available, rainfall will be heavy at times
as the rainbands move through. From Sunday through Tuesday, continued
to follow WPC QPF guidance through the period, which has
rainfall totals of 3-4 inches across the northern counties,
increasing to over 6 inches across the southern counties.
Flash flooding will be possible, especially in training storms.
Tuesday through Friday should still see isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorm, with some gusty winds still possible
each day. Temperatures remain below normal.
All interests are urged to monitor the latest information and
forecasts regarding this storm, and prepare accordingly.
-- End Changed Discussion --
-- Changed Discussion --
Sunday looks to be the calm before the storm. Models showing
strong surface high moving into the northeastern states, while
Hurricane Irma will be moving into southern Florida. Low-level
flow on Sunday will be out of the northeast, but there may be
some moisture increase aloft well ahead of Irma, to continue
with 20 percent pops late in the day. Wind speeds will be on the
increase throughout the day, and can not rule out at least a
lake wind advisory being required during the day and even into
the early evening. Sunday night will see winds continue to
increase as Irma tracks northward through Florida. Temperatures
remain cooler than normal.
Irma impacts will be felt more on Monday and into Monday night.
NHC has the storm across northeastern Florida Monday morning,
then tracks it northwestward towards Atlanta into Tuesday
morning. This puts the entire cwa firmly in the right half of
the storm. Strongest winds to be felt across the CSRA through
the day on Monday, with Tropical Storm force winds possible.
Expect that at least a Wind Advisory for much of the cwa for
Monday, with the possibility of a High Wind Watch/Warning also
being required for western portions of the cwa. With the current
track, Monday should see the outer rainbands moving across the
area at times throughout the day and into the overnight hours.
With the expected strong shear and very strong winds aloft,
there should be a threat of seeing isolated tropical tornadoes
as the right front quadrant of the storm moves through. The
other issue will be the heavy rain potential. With plenty of
deep moisture being available, rainfall will be heavy at times
as the rainbands move through. From Sunday through Tuesday, continued
to follow WPC QPF guidance through the period, which has
rainfall totals of 3-4 inches across the northern counties,
increasing to over 6 inches across the southern counties.
Flash flooding will be possible, especially in training storms.
Tuesday through Friday should still see isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorm, with some gusty winds still possible
each day. Temperatures remain below normal.
All interests are urged to monitor the latest information and
forecasts regarding this storm, and prepare accordingly.
-- End Changed Discussion --
CoreyandFrosty
Member
You guys think Atlanta could see hurricane force winds?
- Moderator
- #252
Here you go bud: http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&mapping=cesium
Real time information. They're pretty much running around the clock at this point.
Mission 23 is en route to make the next series of fly-throughs now. Approaching the north eastern Cuba coastline.
Pluviophile
Member
From Twitter:
James Spann @spann 3 hours ago
One thing I have learned; people on FB don’t know the difference between the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Panhandle.
James Spann @spann 3 hours ago
One thing I have learned; people on FB don’t know the difference between the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Panhandle.
TuckerTerry
Member
That is hilarious, if not downright sad, really. Not to mention scary if some of them live there.
TuckerTerry
Member
At this point, I hope it shifts even further west. At current, this is worst case scenario. Although I hate seeing anybody get this monster. I have friends on Key West that couldn't get out with their son, who is a Muscular Dystrophy patient with zero mobility and on ventilator. They tried, but couldn't get gas after taking 6 hours to get to Key Largo. He cannot fly .. 
Keys are now set to get direct hit first, at Cat 5 ...
Keys are now set to get direct hit first, at Cat 5 ...
TuckerTerry
Member
Yes, that's the one I don't like. It's a no win situation. If eyewall skirts west coast of FL, conditions will be worse here. I just pray that EVERYONE in FL, GA, AL are ready.
I hope that the people in Ga are taking this serious, I know I have
chief25
Member
There seems to be a more concerning threat that the track is continuing to move to the west. CBS 42 posted a pretty good video to facebook.
Ty, I will look
