Archive Former Major Hurricane Irma

[raine1212]

That was big move for us here in my area, not sure what to expect now. Irma has a mind of her own, and I believe she is going to do whatever she feels like at this point. On another, all hotels in Augusta are booked full, shelters are opening for the evacuees from the coast, not sure if the evacuees would be safe here, especially if we flood and no power. Not a win win situation for anyone. Stay safe everyone

 

[WesL]

Could someone give me a link to the latest model runs? Thanks!

I have always liked South Florida Water Management District.
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots

 

[greenem81]

I have always liked South Florida Water Management District.
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots

If the CLP5 model were to be the winning model, we aren't headed to the coast to pick up a car next weekend. We'd be heading down with supplies.

 

[WesL]

NHC moving that track west again. If I had interests on the Alabama or Florida Panhandle I would be starting to make preps for the main landfall.. JUST IN CASE that west trend continues

 

[Bama Ravens]

NHC moving that track west again. If I had interests on the Alabama or Florida Panhandle I would be starting to make preps for the main landfall.. JUST IN CASE that west trend continues

North and Central Alabama also need to be prepared for substantial impacts, as well. Not saying it will be anything catastrophic, but as this inland track shifts west, the threat of heavy rain and high winds for AL just continues to increase.

 

[Jacob]

I agree Wes, I'm starting to get concerned about the Panhandle now. NAM and RGEM (not that either are great models) had a large shift west with their 12z runs this morning, I'll be curious to see if the GFS/Euro follow suit.

Also of note, not sure the NE gulf can sustain a Cat 4/5 type storm, despite the warm surface temperatures. Some of the Euro ensemble members that do take it into the gulf weaken it to a 2/3 before landfall on the panhandle.

Here's the latest TCHP map

 

[cyelle21]

My concern is if it does keep shifting west, no one in the northern gulf will be prepared.

 

[JayF]

My concern is if it does keep shifting west, no one in the northern gulf will be prepared.

Hopefully they are keeping an eye on it so if it does shift they start making preparations. They should be ready.

 

[TuckerTerry]

Anxious to see 12z Euro.

 

[raine1212]

At this point, I have no clue what to be prepared for, prepped for the worst, never been in a storm so I am not I am even ready.

Do you guys think we will see shifts back east, based on models, or are we at a wait and see kinda day. Thanks

 

[TuckerTerry]

At this point, I have no clue what to be prepared for, prepped for the worst, never been in a storm so I am not I am even ready.

Do you guys think we will see shifts back east, based on models, or are we at a wait and see kinda day. Thanks

Where are you?

I personally do not think a shift east will happen. If anything, further west. FL panhandle needs to keep a close eye.

 

[raine1212]

Where are you?

I personally do not think a shift east will happen. If anything, further west. FL panhandle needs to keep a close eye.

Evans , ga 30809

 

[KoD]

At this point, I have no clue what to be prepared for, prepped for the worst, never been in a storm so I am not I am even ready.

Do you guys think we will see shifts back east, based on models, or are we at a wait and see kinda day. Thanks

I'm not as experienced as some of the members on here with tropical systems but I have remained skeptical about the east trend. I would think for that kind of turn Irma would have to slow down more than was projected. There's no question that this thing could go further east than current models prog but I personally doubt that will be the case.
On the other hand, NAM is agreeing with GFS/Euro so that solution lost a little weight. </s>

 

[TuckerTerry]

Evans , ga 30809

I am not sure where that is. I'm in Atlanta and I'm preparing for Tropical Storm force winds, possible tornadoes, trees down, and lots of rain. I am in the process of securing anything outdoors that could potentially become a projectile. I have also just left the store, got cash (ATM's don't work without power), filled both vehicles with gas. I have plans to charge all tablets, laptops, etc. in my home.. and also portable phone chargers.

Hope this helps.

 

[cyelle21]

If I'm correct, when Irma does start to turn North, she should look rather elongated. Will be interesting to see when that happens.

 

[WesL]

If I'm correct, when Irma does start to turn North, she should look rather elongated. Will be interesting to see when that happens.

I don't know a lot about the area you are in but let's remember this sucker is HUGE so you are going to get a lot of rain and winds. Flooding could be an issue and I would prepare for power outages and let's not forget the old sneaky spin up tornado threat.

 

[TuckerTerry]

What's steering her at this point? I'm wondering if she'll turn later and skirt the west coast of Florida, rather than going straight up the peninsula.

 

[Jacob]

Latest Euro has her landfalling in Cuba tomorrow morning. Depending on how long she stays over Cuba before turning north, could have big implications for her strength.

 

[KoD]

My favorite graphic from the NHC is the wind history. It's important to note the hurricane force wind speed field size vs. maximum sustained wind speeds.

Sustained speed has decreased, wind field diameter has steadily increased.

 

[TuckerTerry]

Latest Euro has her landfalling in Cuba tomorrow morning. Depending on how long she stays over Cuba before turning north, could have big implications for her strength.

I haven't seen it yet.