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Archive Former Major Hurricane Irma

Aerials out of St. Martin



Also - y'all check out MIMIC. An EWRC is imminent.
 
Blountwolf said:
Aerials out of St. Martin



Also - y'all check out MIMIC. An EWRC is imminent.
Click to expand...

Wow that is just amazing. Every building is damaged to some degree.
 
A Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch is now up for south Florida:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Florida peninsula from
Jupiter Inlet southward and around the peninsula to Bonita Beach,
including the Florida Keys.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Florida peninsula from
Jupiter Inlet southward and around the peninsula to Bonita Beach,
including the Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee, and Florida Bay.

Irma is still a category 5 hurricane, though winds have decreased ever so slightly to 175 mph.
 
Is this even correct? Are they spreading this far again?

21414836_1715915655108846_7559971001282398643_o.jpg
 
The models with all their ensemble members always are that spread. Watch the EURO and GFS models, but plan based on the NHC track - they are the ones that interpret these and predict. But honestly - does it matter all that much at this point? We're all just going to be waiting and watching for the right turn. When it occurs is the multi-billion dollar question. I am so hoping this doesn't run up the spine of Florida. We need to hope for no landfall and a track at least 50-100 miles off the east coast of Florida, and then if that happens South Carolina is going to take it on the chin. One hard strike perpendicular to the coast would be so much better in terms of overall damage than it just onshore paralleling the coast.
 
Trouble with the Curve.

That turn to the North is really starting to worry me again. It is all about timing. If it turns early it could miss the entire state of FL (best case scenario), It could turn late and find the very warm Gulf of Mexico and cause trouble on the not quite as prepared portions of the panhandle of Florida, Alabama, Mississippi and inland Georgia. It could turn on time and cause trouble across the "prepared" portions of Florida. I'm about ready to start a watch party for Sunday.
 
TuckerTerry said:
Is this even correct? Are they spreading this far again?

21414836_1715915655108846_7559971001282398643_o.jpg
Click to expand...
You'll get that with spaghetti plots. They shouldn't be relied on and you should always expect tons of odd outliers. Obviously UKM is the most believable solution on that graphic. The only takeaway one should drive from that plot is that there is likely going to be a landfall on the US mainland. I prefer to rely on ECMWF & GFS for track solutions.
 
First video out of Tortola

 
12z GFS not changing much, keeps the hurricane very very powerful, gliding the coast.

EDIT: and continues to depict a Savannah landfall.

dtlTRRhl.jpg


It is as likely that this is wrong than it being right, so be cautious. The turn is hard to predict, as are small wobbles.
I'm eager to see the 12z euro.
 
I am just concerned about so many friends and family in the path of this monster. I guess I am looking at too much trying to figure it out. I went through Katrina in NOLA, so paranoia is a thing. Y'all please forgive me!
 
After days of pleading. My Grandmother has decided to stay.... I am beyond mad at one of my relatives...look at where she lives....
 

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SouthernStorms said:
After days of pleading. My Grandmother has decided to stay.... I am beyond mad at one of my relatives...look at where she lives....
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There are people staying. I have a friend in Boca Raton who is staying. On my way to work this morning driving on I 65 I did see a lot of cars from Florida so there are people heading north.
 
JayF said:
There are people staying. I have a friend in Boca Raton who is staying. On my way to work this morning driving on I 65 I did see a lot of cars from Florida so there are people heading north.
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Yeah, supposedly she is in a newer apartment complex on the third floor, built to hurricane codes with hurricane windows. I think it has them lured into a false sense of security.

Even if the building is fine. what about after the storm? No power, no water, lack of food etc. People just need to leave while they can for a few days.
 
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