• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

February Discussion

SASQUATCH

Member
Messages
41
Reaction score
18
Location
Tuscaloosa
Since we're nearing the last few days of January, it's time to look forward into February. Currently, global models suggest times of cool/cold periods (especially first half), and potential energy flying all around. Let the discussion begin.
 

Kory

Member
Messages
4,928
Reaction score
2,119
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Model signals are still mixed in regards to the exact pattern next week, but the Euro and its ensembles are showing a more active pattern taking hold. Perhaps some rough weather. The GFS and company isn't as bullish. There are a lot of moving parts to this pattern. First, the wave breaking over the Aleutians. Second, the cut off over the GOA. Third, how this thing phases. Fourth, downstream ridging and trough evolution. Like I said, A LOT of variables. But, with this being a La Nina driven pattern and with GWO and MJO supporting this type of pattern with Central US troughing and ridging east, it's at least something to keep an eye on....
 

Taylor Campbell

Moderator
Moderator
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
2,102
Reaction score
2,189
Location
Wedowee, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
Model signals are still mixed in regards to the exact pattern next week, but the Euro and its ensembles are showing a more active pattern taking hold. Perhaps some rough weather. The GFS and company isn't as bullish. There are a lot of moving parts to this pattern. First, the wave breaking over the Aleutians. Second, the cut off over the GOA. Third, how this thing phases. Fourth, downstream ridging and trough evolution. Like I said, A LOT of variables. But, with this being a La Nina driven pattern and with GWO and MJO supporting this type of pattern with Central US troughing and ridging east, it's at least something to keep an eye on....

Huge changes on the operational GFS. It was showing a low pressure system deep in the southeast moving across the northern gulf and Florida. Now it shows a deepening low presssure system in the Ohio Valley with a wide warm sector.
 

Kory

Member
Messages
4,928
Reaction score
2,119
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Huge changes on the operational GFS. It was showing a low pressure system deep in the southeast moving across the northern gulf and Florida. Now it shows a deepening low presssure system in the Ohio Valley with a wide warm sector.
The Euro is quite potent as well. Would likely be a large, multi day event beginning in about 6-7 days. Still plenty of time to watch and of course, TalkWeather will always be updated. Still PLENTY of time for this to change....

d2WXdaV.png

Sp9E4pA.png
 

WesL

"Bill, I'm talkin' imminent rueage"
Staff member
Administrator
Moderator
Sustaining Member
Messages
3,344
Reaction score
2,614
Location
Fayetteville, AR
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
As of this morning I have daffodils pushing up. Strange times we live in :)
 

Kory

Member
Messages
4,928
Reaction score
2,119
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Whats the latest on the severe weather threat for next week?

Sent from my LGLS770 using TalkWeather mobile app
Still some mixed signals. The GFS is not biting on a pattern conducive for potential active weather next week. Euro is still bullish, especially the operational, for something next Tuesday. Models are having issues resolving the phase of ULLs in the Pac NW and GOA. Also, ridging in the Western U.S. is stronger thus more of the energy is shunted up into Canada on the GFS.

Really, it's just the Euro right now showing something for next week. Model consistency is in the toilet....
 

SASQUATCH

Member
Messages
41
Reaction score
18
Location
Tuscaloosa
January was 7-8 degrees above normal for MS and AL. Just crazy anomalies. And long term doesn't offer any sustained cold. Just quick blasts....
What really had some potential in the modeling around 10 days ago (for Winter Potential) is nil now. Models underestimated the strength of the westerlies crashing the Pac coast. Hard for a western ridge to build to amplify the eastern trough. As you said, cold blasts will be quick accompanied with no blocking at least through mid month in my opinion.
 

StormStalker

Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
Messages
564
Reaction score
430
Location
Tuscumbia, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
Tulip trees were blooming around here but the freeze last night took care of that.
 

Lori

Administrator
Staff member
Administrator
Moderator
Messages
1,035
Reaction score
653
Location
Vandiver, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
Off topic ...Im Taking my first Sky warn spotter class tomorrow evening. Im looking forward to it.

Good deal!! I recommend everyone to take a spotter's class!! Keep your NWS in your contacts because the information you give from hail size to wind gusts are important!!
 

Lori

Administrator
Staff member
Administrator
Moderator
Messages
1,035
Reaction score
653
Location
Vandiver, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
Tulip trees were blooming around here but the freeze last night took care of that.

Tulip trees are in full bloom where my daughter lives in Talladega Co AND my grass is greener than it was in August!!
 
Messages
141
Reaction score
59
Location
Cartersville Ga
Good deal!! I recommend everyone to take a spotter's class!! Keep your NWS in your contacts because the information you give from hail size to wind gusts are important!!
Class was very informative and interesting. It only took 2 hrs and was well worth my time. I agree with you Lori, for no more time than it take and this could possibly help save a life, everyone should do it. Thank you for turning me on to the idea
 
Back
Top