Since we're nearing the last few days of January, it's time to look forward into February. Currently, global models suggest times of cool/cold periods (especially first half), and potential energy flying all around. Let the discussion begin.
Model signals are still mixed in regards to the exact pattern next week, but the Euro and its ensembles are showing a more active pattern taking hold. Perhaps some rough weather. The GFS and company isn't as bullish. There are a lot of moving parts to this pattern. First, the wave breaking over the Aleutians. Second, the cut off over the GOA. Third, how this thing phases. Fourth, downstream ridging and trough evolution. Like I said, A LOT of variables. But, with this being a La Nina driven pattern and with GWO and MJO supporting this type of pattern with Central US troughing and ridging east, it's at least something to keep an eye on....
The Euro is quite potent as well. Would likely be a large, multi day event beginning in about 6-7 days. Still plenty of time to watch and of course, TalkWeather will always be updated. Still PLENTY of time for this to change....Huge changes on the operational GFS. It was showing a low pressure system deep in the southeast moving across the northern gulf and Florida. Now it shows a deepening low presssure system in the Ohio Valley with a wide warm sector.
Still some mixed signals. The GFS is not biting on a pattern conducive for potential active weather next week. Euro is still bullish, especially the operational, for something next Tuesday. Models are having issues resolving the phase of ULLs in the Pac NW and GOA. Also, ridging in the Western U.S. is stronger thus more of the energy is shunted up into Canada on the GFS.
What really had some potential in the modeling around 10 days ago (for Winter Potential) is nil now. Models underestimated the strength of the westerlies crashing the Pac coast. Hard for a western ridge to build to amplify the eastern trough. As you said, cold blasts will be quick accompanied with no blocking at least through mid month in my opinion.January was 7-8 degrees above normal for MS and AL. Just crazy anomalies. And long term doesn't offer any sustained cold. Just quick blasts....
Off topic ...Im Taking my first Sky warn spotter class tomorrow evening. Im looking forward to it.
Class was very informative and interesting. It only took 2 hrs and was well worth my time. I agree with you Lori, for no more time than it take and this could possibly help save a life, everyone should do it. Thank you for turning me on to the ideaGood deal!! I recommend everyone to take a spotter's class!! Keep your NWS in your contacts because the information you give from hail size to wind gusts are important!!