Severe WX December 10 & 11, 2021 Severe Threat

[Juliett Bravo Kilo]

The big question for me is why? What do they gain from underrating tornadoes, and especially not calling an EF5?

I must say that I found Marshall's tweet rather ridiculous. Jarrell and Bridge Creek are widely acknowledged as two of the most extreme events recorded. As I said earlier, if you're treating it like that, you're missing the entire point of the scale to start off with - and he of all people should be smart enough to realise this.

Well Marshall's been far gone for a long time; that tweet of his confirms just HOW far gone he is.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Well Marshall's been far gone for a long time; that tweet of his confirms just HOW far gone he is.

I strongly agree!

 

[buckeye05]

Yeah can't say I'm too big of a fan of him after this.

 

[TH2002]

Marshall has been going downhill since Westminster. He did lead some good surveys from 2007 to 2014 but Vilonia, Chapman and now Mayfield are the straws that broke the camel's back.

 

[Austin Dawg]

That's true. I guess it was long enough ago that my memory is a little more fuzzy when it comes to how the upgrade process went. That was actually the outbreak that made me start looking into how the rating process works.

I know the conversations that the Smithville survey team had with residents like my brother that were able to tell them the specifics of the construction of the homes and buildings. Not only was his home on the edge of some of the worst in Smithville (his house was right across the road from the cemetery at the corner where the road that went north to the funeral home) he was an alderman for many years and one of the important interviews they were able to have quickly and upgrade it to F5.

The point is that it was only one town. They have many towns to examine here.

 

[eric11]

This was rated 140mph....maybe by NWS Louisville, what the hell?

 

[Juliett Bravo Kilo]

I know the conversations that the Smithville survey team had with residents like my brother that were able to tell them the specifics of the construction of the homes and buildings. Not only was his home on the edge of some of the worst in Smithville (his house was right across the road from the cemetery at the corner where the road that went north to the funeral home) he was an alderman for many years and one of the important interviews they were able to have quickly and upgrade it to F5.

The point is that it was only one town. They have many towns to examine here.

Not that that won't stop them from simply ignoring a bunch of towns altogether.

 

[pohnpei]

DAT just updated the EF4 point of Mayfield tornado. The highest one was in downtown Mayfield. Two LRB building rated 188mph with DOD7.
The UK facility only got 170mph rating and was classified into Elementary School DI. Rated DOD10 but winds lower than EXP.Close view showed extensive use of thick rebars and filled concrete in the building structure.

 

[pohnpei]

So this one was only rated 170mph with comments of high 3-low 4. Not really surprise given CMU foundation but big inconsistency with those high end rating CMU foundation in the past.

Recheck the DAT and found they labeled All Wall collapsed for this building which can't be true but they did labeled It on the exact location of this house. So maybe they will rectify It soon.

 

[Casuarina Head]

View attachment 11082

I think this confirms it...

Timothy Marshall almost seems a bit sardonic about the NWS’s ultimate decision. Perhaps he disagrees but is sarcastically highlighting the higher-ups’ mentality?

 

[A Guy]

DAT just updated the EF4 point of Mayfield tornado. The highest one was in downtown Mayfield. Two LRB building rated 188mph with DOD7.
The UK facility only got 170mph rating and was classified into Elementary School DI. Rated DOD10 but winds lower than EXP.Close view showed extensive use of thick rebars and filled concrete in the building structure.

Lemme see, Elementary School DI specifies block construction but does not say anything about filling and reinforcing - which will make a big difference. Lower than EXP sounds like, frankly, bullshit (as is distressingly common).

 

[pohnpei]

Lemme see, Elementary School DI specifies block construction but does not say anything about filling and reinforcing - which will make a big difference. Lower than EXP sounds like, frankly, bullshit (as is distressingly common).

You can tell from the pic It was here.

 

[TH2002]

I think I may have some surveys to add to the list of the "Worst Tornado Damage Survey Fails Of All Time"

 

[Juliett Bravo Kilo]

I think I may have some surveys to add to the list of the "Worst Tornado Damage Survey Fails Of All Time"

I mean Vilonia is #1, hands down. Goldsby & Chickasha are definitely in the top 5, Chapman 2016 and at least one tornado from this outbreak deserve to be in the top 10.

 

[TH2002]

Another thing I don't like about these surveys is a lot of the photos on the DAT are hastily taken cell phone pictures that are often SIDEWAYS. I don't want to have to break my neck to take a closer look at the damage they photographed.

 

[TH2002]

I mean Vilonia is #1, hands down. Goldsby & Chickasha are definitely in the top 5, Chapman 2016 and at least one tornado from this outbreak deserve to be in the top 10.

I was referring to a list I made in a previous post on the "Significant Tornado Events" thread. It's not in a particular order (and somehow I forgot about Chickasha and Goldsby when I first made the list) but the one thing it goes to show is that even though there were indeed some bad calls made during the F scale area (particularly at the end of the scale's life) modern damage surveying with the EF scale is unbelievably and ridiculously stringent.

 

[Casuarina Head]

Unfortunately, the systematic underrating of these tornadoes will probably serve to bolster certain conspiracy theories—to the effect that the NWS is ostensibly covering up the occurrence of exceptionally strong tornadoes that were surreptitiously “engineered” by HAARP for political purposes. After all, the damage to the UK research facility indicates solid EF5 damage and, combined with the ground scouring, torn-up concrete foundations, and destruction of multi-story brick structures, indicates one of the most powerful tornadoes on record in the U.S. The degree to which multiple WFOs are determined to avoid surveying so many high-end DIs almost looks conspiratorial and/or politically motivated; given that the structures affected were well built, one may rightly wonder as to the actual reason.

 

[TH2002]

Unfortunately, the systematic underrating of these tornadoes will probably serve to bolster certain conspiracy theories—to the effect that the NWS is ostensibly covering up the occurrence of exceptionally strong tornadoes that were surreptitiously “engineered” by HAARP for political purposes. After all, the damage to the UK research facility indicates solid EF5 damage and, combined with the ground scouring, torn-up concrete foundations, and destruction of multi-story brick structures, indicates one of the most powerful tornadoes on record in the U.S. The degree to which multiple WFOs are determined to avoid surveying so many high-end DIs almost looks conspiratorial and/or politically motivated; given that the structures affected were well built, one may rightly wonder as to the actual reason.

I think it's at least partially, if not entirely political. Would you want to move to an area after learning it was hit by an EF5 tornado? An EF4 tornado sounds a lot less threatening to the average person.

 

[vanni9283]

Unfortunately, the systematic underrating of these tornadoes will probably serve to bolster certain conspiracy theories—to the effect that the NWS is ostensibly covering up the occurrence of exceptionally strong tornadoes that were surreptitiously “engineered” by HAARP for political purposes. After all, the damage to the UK research facility indicates solid EF5 damage and, combined with the ground scouring, torn-up concrete foundations, and destruction of multi-story brick structures, indicates one of the most powerful tornadoes on record in the U.S. The degree to which multiple WFOs are determined to avoid surveying so many high-end DIs almost looks conspiratorial and/or politically motivated; given that the structures affected were well built, one may rightly wonder as to the actual reason.

And according to the DI chart for an institutional building, the expected value that the such damage occurs at is 210 mph. I certainly think the UK research facility qualifies as an IB.

IB.html

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[SilentShadow87]

Well this has convinced me that an EF5 rating is effectively impossible and without major changes to the system we will probably never see another officially rated EF5 again. Admitting that they're using Jarrell of all tornadoes as a standard basically confirms that - you can probably count on one hand the number of tornadoes that have reached that level of violence. And if another one occurs any time soon, they'll probably find some excuse to rate that below EF5 too.

I agree this isn't the worst case of an underrated EF5-strength tornado we've seen recently, but it's pretty close, especially considering contextual evidence. Vegetation damage, ground scouring, and the tossing of 100+-ton freight cars are all major flags that this was a very violent tornado.