Severe WX December 10 & 11, 2021 Severe Threat

[vanni9283]

Well this has convinced me that an EF5 rating is effectively impossible and without major changes to the system we will probably never see another officially rated EF5 again. Admitting that they're using Jarrell of all tornadoes as a standard basically confirms that - you can probably count on one hand the number of tornadoes that have reached that level of violence. And if another one occurs any time soon, they'll probably find some excuse to rate that below EF5 too.

I agree this isn't the worst case of an underrated EF5-strength tornado we've seen recently, but it's pretty close, especially considering contextual evidence. Vegetation damage, ground scouring, and the tossing of 100+-ton freight cars are all major flags that this was a very violent tornado.

What happened in Jarrell, Texas that didn't occur in this tornado???

 

[andyhb]

So the three analog matches from Sam's VROT + TDS database are... Vilonia, Rochelle, and Chickasha 2011...

 

[andyhb]

Also looks like the BG tornado has been upgraded to EF4 per NWS CRH.

 

[charolf98]

So the three analog matches from Sam's VROT + TDS database are... Vilonia, Rochelle, and Chickasha 2011...

The problem comes to that all these matching analogs likely supposed to be EF5... you know what I'm saying?

 

[Austin Dawg]

I think it's at least partially, if not entirely political. Would you want to move to an area after learning it was hit by an EF5 tornado? An EF4 tornado sounds a lot less threatening to the average person.

The public has already been spoon-fed fantasy as fact. It's hard to put that genie back in the bottle.

 

[A Guy]

So the three analog matches from Sam's VROT + TDS database are... Vilonia, Rochelle, and Chickasha 2011...

Hit the trifecta! Don't know whether to laugh or cry.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[A Guy]

Another thing I don't like about these surveys is a lot of the photos on the DAT are hastily taken cell phone pictures that are often SIDEWAYS. I don't want to have to break my neck to take a closer look at the damage they photographed.

Did they at least get out of their car to take them this time?

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

So generous of them.

 

[TH2002]

Did they at least get out of their car to take them this time?

In a lot of cases, NOPE!

 

[SilentShadow87]

What happened in Jarrell, Texas that didn't occur in this tornado???

Ground scouring down to 18 inches, complete removal of all grass and shubs, granulation of debris into pebble-sized pieces, cars and trucks torn apart, etc. First responders were actually confused by the lack of debris. This was a violent tornado and undoubtedly should have been rated EF5 but the damage was nothing like Jarrell.

 

[A Guy]

In a lot of cases, NOPE!

How is this acceptable? I know it's a lot of area to cover, but it's not that hard to find the worst areas on the multitude of aerial video and examine them carefully. There clearly not concerned with doing a professional job, not surprising when no-one else with real credibility will call them out.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Ground scouring down to 18 inches, complete removal of all grass and shubs, granulation of debris into pebble-sized pieces, cars and trucks torn apart, etc. First responders were actually confused by the lack of debris. This was a violent tornado and undoubtedly should have been rated EF5 but the damage was nothing like Jarrell.

Probably not Jarrell but there were some pretty desolate areas in Bremen.

 

[TH2002]

How is this acceptable? I know it's a lot of area to cover, but it's not that hard to find the worst areas on the multitude of aerial video and examine them carefully. There clearly not concerned with doing a professional job, not surprising when no-one else with real credibility will call them out.

Were the homes well constructed? Maybe, but we will never know, cause they decided to half-donkey the survey in that area.

 

[TH2002]

How much do you want to bet that if Brandenburg happened today it would have gotten slapped with a "high end" EF4 rating?

 

[andyhb]

How much do you want to bet that if Brandenburg happened today it would have gotten slapped with a "high end" EF4 rating?

I'm not sure a single tornado from the Super Outbreak would receive an EF5 rating today.

 

[TH2002]

I'm not sure a single tornado from the Super Outbreak would receive an EF5 rating today.

I would be shocked if even Smithville got an EF5 rating today.

 

[SilentShadow87]

How much do you want to bet that if Brandenburg happened today it would have gotten slapped with a "high end" EF4 rating?

I ain't betting against that because I'm pretty sure it would be. I've always said that the only legit F5 tornadoes in the 74 Super Outbreak were Brandenburg, Guin, and Tanner 1, but I'm not even sure they would get EF5 ratings today. I don't think Hackleburg, Philadelphia or Rainsville would either. Smithville maaaybe, at a pretty big stretch.

 

[vanni9283]

It would have to be an 'F6' on the old scale in order to qualify for an EF5 on today's scale.

 

[A Guy]

With there stringency with which the scale is applied these days I think of the eight official EF5s the only ones which would remain are maybe Smithville, Moore (being much more politically acceptable, a big city in the 'traditional' area), and Hackleburg at a stretch. We already have the 'hurr durr there was no EF5 damage in Joplin' report to prove that it wouldn't make it.

I certainly don't see how the ratings today are any better than those in the post-La Plata period.