Severe WX December 10 & 11, 2021 Severe Threat

[TH2002]

I hope we all end up saying this for nothing, but this tornado being upgraded to EF5 is about as likely as Microsoft calling me up and offering me a million dollars to upgrade to Windows 11 (they can keep their p*ss poor operating system but that's a story for another day!)

 

[TH2002]

Chickasha was an EF5 claimed by Tim Marshall but NWS Norman had their own thoughts

Chickasha was a no-brainer EF5 as well but Goldsby was so freaking obvious it genuinely p*sses me off when I look at the damage photos from that tornado.

 

[Blacksheep]

Besides the White House and a Castle what constitutes a well build home according to the NWS post 2013? The EF model needs to be adjusted to a practical level, when an $800,000 home is swept away and not considered well built (along with several others that I saw-Judge home in Bremen) there is a problem. I get the idea that a shack, prefab, or poorly constructed home shouldn't be factored in, but geez if true and final we have surpassed the common sense barrier.

 

[Evan]

Chickasha was an EF5 claimed by Tim Marshall but NWS Norman had their own thoughts

His paper on Chickasha says he rated it EF4. Can't be missing any nuts or washers, folks.

Redirect Notice

 

[Evan]

Besides the White House and a Castle what constitutes a well build home according to the NWS post 2013? The EF model needs to be adjusted to a practical level, when an $800,000 home is swept away and not considered well built (along with several others that I saw-Judge home in Bremen) there is a problem. I get the idea that a shack, prefab, or poorly constructed home shouldn't be factored in, but geez if true and final we have surpassed the common sense barrier.

To be fair, an 800k home is not necessarily well-built simply because it cost a lot to construct. Construction quality, design, and proper engineering are all real things. However, there's also a level of reality that needs to be applied to any analysis of residential construction quality understanding that the quality of construction is going to vary greatly depending on local/regional building codes and a number of other factors.

Nonetheless, there are well-built homes located throughout our great nation. It's when people see 1% or less of construction as being "well-built" that it becomes a total farce. Then it becomes a failure to actually use the term as intended due to preconceptions and biases.

 

[Blacksheep]

Another thing that doesn't exist anymore is EF5 tornadoes themselves. It is not that there are no longer any storms that reach that intensity, but no longer any storms that are rated as such.

The EF scale is supposed to be scientific not subjective. Rigid but with a common sense approach.

 

[Blacksheep]

It's a shame...Ted Fujita claimed the F6 never existed not the EF5, NWS must be confused...

 

[ARCC]

Smithville was a preliminary 190 mph EF4 until it was upgraded to a 205 mph EF5.

I actually think it was a preliminary EF4 then quickly went to preliminary EF5. If I remember right the wording in the text was “Rare preliminary EF5”.

Edit:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
812 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2011

…PRELIMINARY RARE EF-5 TORNADO IN MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI…

AFTER A REVIEW OF THE DAMAGE PHOTOS TAKEN DURING THURSDAY/S GROUND
SURVEY AND CONSULTATION WITH NATIONAL EXPERTS…THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS UPGRADED THE SMITHVILLE TORNADO
RATING TO EF-5 DAMAGE. THIS IS THE HIGHEST RATING FOR TORNADO
DAMAGE AND THE FIRST EF-5 OR F-5 IN MISSISSIPPI SINCE THE
CANDLESTICK PARK TORNADO NEAR JACKSON ON MARCH 3RD 1966.

 

[eric11]

His paper on Chickasha says he rated it EF4. Can't be missing any nuts or washers, folks.

Redirect Notice

I remember he labeled the house below as capable of reaching EF5 intensity in his book.

 

[vanni9283]

Is the rating still preliminary? I want to see what is found in the coming days.

 

[buckeye05]

His paper on Chickasha says he rated it EF4. Can't be missing any nuts or washers, folks.

Redirect Notice

In more recent live presentations he’s called it an EF5 though. I think he revised his opinion a bit over the years with that one, sort of like he did with the school in Greensburg.

 

[Evan]

Chickasha was a no-brainer EF5 as well but Goldsby was so freaking obvious it genuinely p*sses me off when I look at the damage photos from that tornado.

You'll find no disagreement from me, but alternating bolts with nails or using nails to secure the wall studs to the sill plate (even if straps are used as well) doesn't meet the new definition of "well-constructed."

"The definition of a well-constructed house can vary among individual damage surveyors. In this paper, we define a well-constructed residence as one that has a continuous load path of straps and anchors, without weak connections in horizontal or vertical planes. Straight-nailed connections (typically between wall studs and bottom plates) are weak, and we found them in every destroyed home."

That definition (and a whole lot more) has become accepted as policy whether official or not.

 

[Blacksheep]

This effectively renders ratings meaningless, but the maddening inconsistency from WFO to WFO and the dramatically stricter thresholds now mean they've been pretty much meaningless to compare historical events from the start. Grazulis seems a far better authority on the old ratings than the official one

The only way this makes sense is if the intention of NWS is to strictly preliminarily rate, take photographic evidence, examine---then turn everything over to engineers and others for peer review 6 months later for final determination. If that is the case, why not announce the practice. Got off topic, Fully agree Equus on your post, now for comparison everyone needs to compare pre-1973, 1974-2006, 2007-2013, 2014 present -with a sliding scale.

 

[Evan]

In more recent live presentations he’s called it an EF5 though. I think he revised his opinion a bit over the years with that one, sort of like he did with the school in Greensburg.

Not aware of his opinion vis-a-vis Greensburg and the school. What was it and how did it change?

 

[vanni9283]

I just sent a tweet to NWS Paducah sharing TM's Facebook post from earlier today.

 

[buckeye05]

Not aware of his opinion vis-a-vis Greensburg and the school. What was it and how did it change?

I called it the most violent school building damage he's surveyed during a power point presentation earlier this year, and called it EF5 worthy. It's somewhere on youtube.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

I wonder if the Dresden, the other long tracked tornado, and Bowling Green are going to be upgraded to EF4.

 

[buckeye05]

I wonder if the Dresden, the other long tracked tornado, and Bowling Green are going to be upgraded to EF4.

Doubt it.

 

[Blacksheep]

To be fair, an 800k home is not necessarily well-built simply because it cost a lot to construct. Construction quality, design, and proper engineering are all real things. However, there's also a level of reality that needs to be applied to any analysis of residential construction quality understanding that the quality of construction is going to vary greatly depending on local/regional building codes and a number of other factors.

Nonetheless, there are well-built homes located throughout our great nation. It's when people see 1% or less of construction as being "well-built" that it becomes a total farce. Then it becomes a failure to actually use the term as intended due to preconceptions and biases.

Agree, I think we are making the same point. I shouldn't have used dollars, rather the apparent appearance of the home (certainly appeared well constructed). Tornadoes occur throughout all 50 states, every state, town, and jurisdiction certainly has well built neighborhoods and others that are less so. We shouldn't have a rating system (one that is useful for significant factors other than message boards and trivia) that can only be applicable in certain neighborhoods or areas. Whatever the system it needs to incorporate solely on strength and damage. Width and track length are also factors but are already colloquially associated with any rating. I appreciate that the measurement cannot be solely radar based, thus making it tough to scientifically determine strength without analyzing damage to buildings / residences. Tree damage, ground scouring, wind rowing, water towers, etc need to be included as those DI's are found in all 50 states and in all forests / towns / etc. Whatever it should be, the current EF rating appears broken when less than 1% of geography qualifies.

 

[Tanner]

After letting it sit for a bit. I've come to the determination that the 190 mph rating can be justified in some regards.

The thing that really has me over I think is the inconsistency in the rating system. Every event like this we've learned more and more about construction flaws and what that means to determine damage surveys. But what I've also personally learned is how many homes are truly not well-built.

That's why contextual factors need to be accounted for more, as well as non-traditional indicators. We're past the days of bare-minimum in technology, thus we should find ways to be more open to other indicators that wouldn't be factored in the past. Again, while I think ignorance is a factor in these recent surveys, I truly think they are just becoming more strict on what they see to be more precise. The contrary to this is that the other indications become that much more meaningful than before, but as we know, these haven't been taken seriously, which is where the ignorance leads in quote honestly. In short, you become more strict and precise, in return it makes those "obvious" non-traditional indicators that much more valuable because that's where your higher rating probably lies.

Hope that makes sense

Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk