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Hurricane Category 4 Hurricane Helene

The NWS, NHC, etc. all did a great job with messaging. However, the general public is a lot more focused on where it makes landfall and what category than the inland threats. I'll say, as a meteorologist, it's very hard to give the right message when you have a more significant threat inland such as with this more so than on the coast. I mean the main threat for this on the coast was storm surge. One thing that needs to change I believe is how long the text is on these warnings/watches. You pull up those Tropical Watches/Warnings. It's a page long. No one is gonna read all that outside of us meteorologists who understands all that.
 
Sawmaster said:
The local forecasters for the upstate of SC made it clear that this was going to be at least as bad as Fran, Ivan, and Hugo and several also stated it could be as bad as it actually was. Everyone was talking about it and only those who don't pay attention to the weather got surprised. The utility companies weren't ready at all, but otherwise we knew, and the rest is up to us.

As to NC and TN I don't know. Asheville was well warned- I'm close enough to keep up with them so I know. Thing is there that they do see frequent flooding from spring and summer storms along with the remnants of hurricanes occasionally. Maybe they got complacent based on their experiences with that in the past but that's their fault- the forecasters did what they should have done.

Poor folk can't just jump and run to some hotel hundreds of miles away which they can't afford anyway and this is where we might do better in the future. Have safe shelters open early enough and at least some of those people will use them but if you wait till it's 24 hours before to open shelters then a lot of people aren't going to be able to use them and a lot of the rest won't bother.
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It is indeed a complicated situation where science, communications and socioeconomics meet. There is no one aspect of the preparedness and recovery process that will make any of what has happened magically better the next time. Instead, it is a continual process of planning and adjusting, and, of course, working to increase community resiliency, especially in areas under high risk of natural disasters. No untested plan or system truly survives baptism by fire, and even well-tested ones will be strained by extraordinary events, like this one.
 
Clancy said:
It is indeed a complicated situation where science, communications and socioeconomics meet. There is no one aspect of the preparedness and recovery process that will make any of what has happened magically better the next time. Instead, it is a continual process of planning and adjusting, and, of course, working to increase community resiliency, especially in areas under high risk of natural disasters. No untested plan or system truly survives baptism by fire, and even well-tested ones will be strained by extraordinary events, like this one.
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I think the worst part of this is that it was in an area that really isn't under high risk of natural disasters under normal circumstances. It's much easier to tell someone who lives in Florida "hey there's a hurricane coming you need to leave" because they've probably seen several hurricane impacts already and know what's going to happen. It's much harder to tell someone in North Carolina or Tennessee "hey there's going to be a flooding event that hasn't been seen since before your grandparents were born" because they don't have any real concrete idea of what that event is going to entail or how they should prepare for it.
 
Clancy said:
This also very quickly turns into a case of "damned if you do, damned if you don't" because I cannot imagine the response and backlash that would occur if an evacuation of the magnitude (or even asking such a large area to conduct extensive preparations) were to take place for flood-prone areas ahead of an event and it didn't manifest as anticipated. I've seen a few mets say that flooding just isn't as "flashy" or eye-catching a threat compared to hurricanes or tornadoes, and, in personal experience, it can be especially difficult to encourage people to take action for flooding unless they've had the misfortune of experiencing the wrath of a flash flood themselves.
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It's so unfortunate. Flooding kills. Probably kills more per year than any other natural disaster but I don't have the statistics. But I agree. It's not "flashy". And I think that's a major reason as to why many don't take it seriously.
 
I-40 east to Asheville is open to local and emergency traffic -- source.

Clancy said:
because I cannot imagine the response and backlash that would occur if an evacuation of the magnitude (or even asking such a large area to conduct extensive preparations) were to take place for flood-prone areas ahead of an event and it didn't manifest as anticipated.
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Irrelevant here, but FWIW that is a major problem for volcanologists, and volcanoes (which always affect large areas) sometimes will do everything right up to the point of magma rising up the conduit -- and then stall before reaching the tipping point where eruptions become inevitable.
 
warneagle said:
I think the worst part of this is that it was in an area that really isn't under high risk of natural disasters under normal circumstances. It's much easier to tell someone who lives in Florida "hey there's a hurricane coming you need to leave" because they've probably seen several hurricane impacts already and know what's going to happen. It's much harder to tell someone in North Carolina or Tennessee "hey there's going to be a flooding event that hasn't been seen since before your grandparents were born" because they don't have any real concrete idea of what that event is going to entail or how they should prepare for it.
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I have to disagree somewhat, at least as far as Asheville. My NWS office covers them so I hear everything that goes on there weather-wise. That area gets numerous warned storms of all kinds throughout spring and summer, and more frequently than the western Greenville SC metro area which I am on the extreme fringes of. Floods and flash floods are common there but they usually only affect low-lying roads and rivers which all the locals know about. Likely many of the folks who didn't make it were well-experienced with local flooding and didn't think this was going to be much different even though they were emphatically told so, and some were likely new to the area and didn't understand flooding there area at all. I don't know if shelters were opened early there, but several churches serve as shelters and open up even when the government doesn't act. Anyone there during Ivan, Fran, and Hugo knew things could go crazy faster than anyone can react to, but a big question is always "When should I go" with "where do I go" following close behind. And TBH, I'm not sure they could have dealt with the numbers of evacuees even with every shelter they have open two days ahead of time. As a whole you can't be ready for something like this- there will be casualties simply due to the scale involved. Sad as it is, there won't be any doubting warnings of anything similar in this part of the world for a long time to come.
 
I saw a great discussion on several Twitter/X threads about revamping some of the threat messaging for tropical systems moving forward to convey the full inland threats better -- the new cone is a good step, but more can be done.

Much of the conversation centered on the "HTI", or the "Hurricane Threats and Impacts" graphics that I had not heard of until that conversation, and I consider myself pretty weather-savvy! Apparently, each WFO gets a webpage (for example, Tampa Bay's is at https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=tbw#hti and others can be found by replacing "tbw" with the WFO's abbreviation, this url works for the south and southeast, the northern states have a different one.) In all of my looking at graphics and such from a myriad of sites for these kind of storms, I have NEVER seen the HTI before, but I think it's fantastic and simple!

It gives a threat level, color-coded in four levels, for each of 4 threats -- wind damage, storm surge, rainfall, and tornadoes. Each of the 4 graphics are geographically placed to show the threat depicted in each area. The discussion from several meteorologists and enthusiasts alike on X was to create a Composite HTI graphic that is the max of the four HTI's across every area. This would give a simple color-coded threat level 1-4 for each area to see on the approach of a storm.

Brandon Black on Twitter came up with such a Composite HTI (with earliest arrival of TS winds overlaid), and I think this gives an excellent summary of the threat Helene posed and matches the highest damage areas mostly (the Alabama threat didn't pan out much, though, but otherwise!)

Thoughts people?

1727911222955.png
 
wx_guy said:
I saw a great discussion on several Twitter/X threads about revamping some of the threat messaging for tropical systems moving forward to convey the full inland threats better -- the new cone is a good step, but more can be done.

Much of the conversation centered on the "HTI", or the "Hurricane Threats and Impacts" graphics that I had not heard of until that conversation, and I consider myself pretty weather-savvy! Apparently, each WFO gets a webpage (for example, Tampa Bay's is at https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=tbw#hti and others can be found by replacing "tbw" with the WFO's abbreviation, this url works for the south and southeast, the northern states have a different one.) In all of my looking at graphics and such from a myriad of sites for these kind of storms, I have NEVER seen the HTI before, but I think it's fantastic and simple!

It gives a threat level, color-coded in four levels, for each of 4 threats -- wind damage, storm surge, rainfall, and tornadoes. Each of the 4 graphics are geographically placed to show the threat depicted in each area. The discussion from several meteorologists and enthusiasts alike on X was to create a Composite HTI graphic that is the max of the four HTI's across every area. This would give a simple color-coded threat level 1-4 for each area to see on the approach of a storm.

Brandon Black on Twitter came up with such a Composite HTI (with earliest arrival of TS winds overlaid), and I think this gives an excellent summary of the threat Helene posed and matches the highest damage areas mostly (the Alabama threat didn't pan out much, though, but otherwise!)

Thoughts people?

View attachment 30477
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Yeah. I have come across those a few times like with Debby and a few others. They're not really on the main page on the NWS offices site and you really have to look for them (or know where to look). I would like to see a full interactive map of this made mainly for regions that experience tropical impacts/landfalls. It would be very useful. I know there's interactive maps for a lot of things on the NWS page/different offices, but I haven't come across one that's fully made for tropical impacts.
 
The new cone definitely needs some work. Something that would be beneficial is a link to those Hurricane threat graphics in the NHC discussion for each office that has it (depending on what region is being impacted of course).
 
JPWX said:
The new cone definitely needs some work. Something that would be beneficial is a link to those Hurricane threat graphics in the NHC discussion for each office that has it (depending on what region is being impacted of course).
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I think the best way to do it would be to have like...confidence intervals within it like saying "we have 90% confidence the track of the center will be in this area, we have 70% confidence it'll be here, etc." but that's probably asking too much of most people in terms of like...understanding how probability works. I'm not really sure how you get to people who might scroll past a forecast graphic on their phone or see it out of the corner of their eye on TV and aren't going to bother to understand what the cone means or anything like that.
 
jiharris0220 said:
Death toll has now reached 200, with still hundreds missing. Wiki obviously isn’t the most reliable source but they tend to be accurate on fatal numbers as official confirmation tends to follow suit when they update them.
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Corroborated by NBC. Was also being reported by AP earlier, but can't find their article now.
www.nbcnews.com

Hurricane Helene live updates: More than 200 dead as hope fades in search for survivors

At least 190 people are known to have died as a result of the carnage and destruction wrought by Hurricane Helene since it made landfall in Florida a week ago.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com
 
It's a mess, that's for sure. I don't know why but media coverage was scant and incomplete during this event. Even the radio stations I could get didn't have many details. Their newspaper (The Citizen Times) had barely OK coverage in the online version but so far has had the most accurate info. I found as much or more on YouTube which is scary considering that those people needed to have accurate info right now to save lives.

I looked on Google and it turns out that I'm 20 miles south of Asheville as the crow flies. I thought it was further! We got hit hard here but not nearly as bad as Asheville. Most of our problems were wind-related but our drainage is better here, being more foothills than mountains. And I can sure believe the 'Thousand year event" status; most of my lifetime has been spent here and I've never in 65 years seen anything like this.
 
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