Hurricane Category 4 Hurricane Helene

[TornadoFan]

 

[Blountwolf]

Hmm... a thought. Don't sleep on the possibility of an Atlantic-side wind driven surge in N FL and SE GA. Could be significant with this as big as it is and in the big bend.

 

[Destin Native]

A few pics from Carrabelle of the bay as I was leaving. Then driving over the bridge in Apalachicola it started storming again. The calm water pics and light house is Port St Joe. I’m decided to evacuate to Pensacola. I’m at friends house, safe.

 

[weatherguy24]

Here's a cool webcam, direct in the path of Helene: St George Island Florida
https://thesurfersview.com/live-cams/florida/st-george-island-beach-cam-surf-report/

 

[TornadoFan]

Looks like an eye is clearing out, but I can't tell.

 

[Blountwolf]

Looks like an eye is clearing out, but I can't tell.

Getting there. Big one.


96 frame visible loop - you can watch it wrap up.

COD NEXLAB: Satellite and Radar

Check out COD Meteorology's Satellite and Radar Data

weather.cod.edu

 

[Richardjacks]

Getting there. Big one.
View attachment 30236

96 frame visible loop - you can watch it wrap up.

COD NEXLAB: Satellite and Radar

Check out COD Meteorology's Satellite and Radar Data

weather.cod.edu

That's definitely an eye beginning to pop

 

[Blountwolf]

Still a good bit of dry air entrainment - I expect we won't get a completely clear eye for a bit yet. Tower firing right on what will be the western eyewall.

 

[Clancy]

Flooding risk greatly expanded for tomorrow. High brought southward and Moderate expanded westward into AL.

 

[Destin Native]

Carrabelle Island View Park Camera

This camera is on the bay looking at Dog Island one of our inhabited barrier islands. Dog island is only accessible by ferry or personal vessel.

 

[TornadoFan]

Hello, Helene. "Eye" see you. (Still needs to close up)

 

[TornadoFan]

Looks like the dry air is starting to close up.

 

[South AL Wx]

Uh-oh, from the latest NHC discussion:

"The NHC intensity forecast now shows an intensity of 115 kt (Category 4) at
24 hours, which is mirrored by several of the regional hurricane
models and the SHIPS guidance. It should be noted that additional
strengthening is possible beyond 24 hours before Helene makes
landfall Thursday evening."

 

[Blountwolf]

Looks like the dry air is starting to close up.

Getting there. It's kind of like having chunks of unmixed stuff in your cake batter when you are making a cake. The smoother it all gets, the faster it spins.

Uh-oh, from the latest NHC discussion:

"The NHC intensity forecast now shows an intensity of 115 kt (Category 4) at
24 hours, which is mirrored by several of the regional hurricane
models and the SHIPS guidance. It should be noted that additional
strengthening is possible beyond 24 hours before Helene makes
landfall Thursday evening."

Ugh.

 

[KoD]

Low level recon checking out the eye now. Gonna be glued to this for awhile

 

[wx_guy]

So officially forecasting a Cat 4 with further strengthening possible...just about the perfect conditions to strengthen sounds like, too. This continues to have "historic" written all over it.

 

[Richardjacks]

I am wondering if the RI that's about to begin is going to time near perfectly where there isn't much time for a EWRC before landfall.

 

[South AL Wx]

Also, the surge forecast has been increased again:

Carrabelle, FL to Suwannee River, FL...15-20 ft

 

[JPWX]

I am wondering if the RI that's about to begin is going to time near perfectly where there isn't much time for a EWRC before landfall.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that similar to what Michael did?

 

[JPWX]

Also, the surge forecast has been increased again:

Carrabelle, FL to Suwannee River, FL...15-20 ft

Got a cousin who lives in Suwannee.