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Hurricane Category 4 Hurricane Helene

Clancy said:
11PM Advisory out.

View attachment 30121
Click to expand...
And while this graphic no longer shows the M letter for Major, NHC explicitly states in their discussion: "The system is
projected to move over waters of very high ocean heat content,
which should lead to considerable strengthening during the forecast
period."
 
JPWX said:
And while this graphic no longer shows the M letter for Major, NHC explicitly states in their discussion: "The system is
projected to move over waters of very high ocean heat content,
which should lead to considerable strengthening during the forecast
period."
Click to expand...

And:
"It should be noted that the 72-hour forecast allows for a little weakening after moving inland, so the cyclone is still expected to be at major hurricane
strength at landfall."
 
does that not make it confusing for the general public? The normal person isn't reading the print, they are looking at the map. Dropping of the M would suggest weakening to the normal person especially after the M was included on the previous map.
 
Maybe this hurricane will trend downward. A long way to go though. Maybe it will be the opposite of Michael. Didn’t the models rapidly underestimate Michael’s strength early on?
 
Robust convection on 9 late this evening.
 
The Nino said:
does that not make it confusing for the general public? The normal person isn't reading the print, they are looking at the map. Dropping of the M would suggest weakening to the normal person especially after the M was included on the previous map.
Click to expand...
Which is why people need to keep up to date. They issue several advisories through out the day as new data comes in. Nothing is 100% guaranteed until it actually happens. Just like with severe Wx. Stay up to date and make plans accordingly. The weather is fickle.
 
KevinH said:
Which is why people need to keep up to date. They issue several advisories through out the day as new data comes in. Nothing is 100% guaranteed until it actually happens. Just like with severe Wx. Stay up to date and make plans accordingly. The weather is fickle.
Click to expand...
I agree in principle but you have to remember the level of weather awareness most people are at. They probably have no idea where to find a forecast discussion, much less read it. They’re just gonna see the graphic flash by on TV or Twitter or whatever.

It’s like George Carlin said, think of how dumb the average person is and remember that half of them are dumber than that.
 
06Z Hurricane Model Runs...

HWRF 922 mb 150 mph into Perry
HMON 941 mb 130 mph into Perry
HAFS-A 921 mb 155 mph into Steinhatchee
HAFS-B 909 mb 165 mph into Steinhatchee

So the Hurricane Models wants to take a Cat 4/5 into the eastern/southern Big Bend. Pretty much a worst case scenario for surge. Even Tampa Bay will get it rough on these tracks.
 
warneagle said:
I agree in principle but you have to remember the level of weather awareness most people are at. They probably have no idea where to find a forecast discussion, much less read it. They’re just gonna see the graphic flash by on TV or Twitter or whatever.

It’s like George Carlin said, think of how dumb the average person is and remember that half of them are dumber than that.
Click to expand...
lol… fair enough
 
Shear still high, but relaxing some over the last few hours.
1727182040858.png
 
wx_guy said:
06Z Hurricane Model Runs...

HWRF 922 mb 150 mph into Perry
HMON 941 mb 130 mph into Perry
HAFS-A 921 mb 155 mph into Steinhatchee
HAFS-B 909 mb 165 mph into Steinhatchee

So the Hurricane Models wants to take a Cat 4/5 into the eastern/southern Big Bend. Pretty much a worst case scenario for surge. Even Tampa Bay will get it rough on these tracks.
Click to expand...

Twice in one year for that area.

In all of those runs it appears we have a strengthening storm at landfall.
 
Wowsers. NHC has pulled out magenta storm surge contours for 12+ ft. inundation along the Big Bend.
 
Euro still thinking someone gets clocked with 11 inches of rain inland. This run NW GA, E TN, and the Carolina mountains.
1727187722587.png
 
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