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Severe WX April 4th-6th, 2022 Severe Weather Threat

Debris signature on the PDS cell approaching NW of Newton, MS
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Jpgood97 said:
Thoughts on the cell moving towards Troy Alabama?


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Fortunately for local residents; something (perhaps those poor low-level lapse rates SPC mentioned in their MD) appears to be preventing those discrete cells from really getting rooted despite ample moisture, low-level shear and those robust UH streaks portrayed on the HRRR runs.

Edit: These may actually be elevated on the north side of the warm front. SPC still seems to think surface-based supercells will be able to develop soon, perhaps out of the cluster near Hattiesburg/Columbia currently; or the discrete cells popping up near Baton Rouge, LA.
 
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CheeselandSkies said:
Fortunately for local residents; something (perhaps those poor low-level lapse rates SPC mentioned in their MD) appears to be preventing those discrete cells from really getting rooted despite ample moisture, low-level shear and those robust UH streaks portrayed on the HRRR runs.

Edit: These may actually be elevated on the north side of the warm front. SPC still seems to think surface-based supercells will be able to develop soon, perhaps out of the cluster near Hattiesburg/Columbia currently; or the discrete cells popping up near Baton Rouge, LA.
Click to expand...
One of the subtle things I was noticing on model runs yesterday was an inversion at the surface in AL during the morning near the warm front. I'm not able to check if this verified, but if it did that would certainly be what's preventing these storms from being surface based.
 
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