Severe WX April 4th-6th, 2022 Severe Weather Threat

[OHWX97]

Likely tornado near Polkville, MS.

 

[OHWX97]

There's now a confirmed tornado with the Polkville storm.

 

[Jetstream]

New tornado watch issued.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Warning for embedded supercell near Newton, MS says confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado; although the radar doesn't look that impressive to me at the moment.

 

[OHWX97]

There's another radar confirmed tornado between Prentiss, MS and Mount Olive, MS.

 

[OHWX97]

Confirmed tornado moving into Newton, MS.

 

[kevinrock]

Debris signature on the PDS cell approaching NW of Newton, MS

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[warneagle]

If that stays on the ground it's going to move right into the south side of Meridian.

 

[Jpgood97]

Thoughts on the cell moving towards Troy Alabama?


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[CheeselandSkies]

Thoughts on the cell moving towards Troy Alabama?


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Fortunately for local residents; something (perhaps those poor low-level lapse rates SPC mentioned in their MD) appears to be preventing those discrete cells from really getting rooted despite ample moisture, low-level shear and those robust UH streaks portrayed on the HRRR runs.

Edit: These may actually be elevated on the north side of the warm front. SPC still seems to think surface-based supercells will be able to develop soon, perhaps out of the cluster near Hattiesburg/Columbia currently; or the discrete cells popping up near Baton Rouge, LA.

 

[xJownage]

Fortunately for local residents; something (perhaps those poor low-level lapse rates SPC mentioned in their MD) appears to be preventing those discrete cells from really getting rooted despite ample moisture, low-level shear and those robust UH streaks portrayed on the HRRR runs.

Edit: These may actually be elevated on the north side of the warm front. SPC still seems to think surface-based supercells will be able to develop soon, perhaps out of the cluster near Hattiesburg/Columbia currently; or the discrete cells popping up near Baton Rouge, LA.

One of the subtle things I was noticing on model runs yesterday was an inversion at the surface in AL during the morning near the warm front. I'm not able to check if this verified, but if it did that would certainly be what's preventing these storms from being surface based.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Storm near Thomasville, AL now tornado warned. It's pretty much as far as possible from all the radars.

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[Jetstream]

 

[CheeselandSkies]

View attachment 13158

Convective mode/organization in terms of significant/supercellular tornado potential just hasn't been all that impressive this whole event going back to last night over Texas. However, as we know things can change in the span of one radar scan.

 

[Tennie]

However, as we know things can change in the span of one radar scan.

That's weather in a nutshell for you...

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Thomasville under a warning once again for the rotating bow echo. This one is radar confirmed.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Cell crossing I-55/US-51 north of Lake Ponchartrain has quietly assumed a very supercellular look. Not even a severe thunderstorm warning yet.

 

[Richardjacks]

Dramatic increase in winds in Birmingham from northwest....seems like a gravity wave may be developing on the back edge of the rain shield. Just gusted to 35 mph here atop Red Mountain

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Cell crossing I-55/US-51 north of Lake Ponchartrain has quietly assumed a very supercellular look. Not even a severe thunderstorm warning yet.

Looks like that died or got absorbed by the non-severe, ESE-training cluster. Flooding looks to be a far bigger story than tornadoes with this event.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Discrete cell in AL just ahead of the tornado-warned bow echo is likewise tornado-warned, near Greenville/Ft. Deposit. Probably the most threatening-looking hook and couplet of the event so far.