KevinH
Member
Right. That is for Tuesday the 4th. I am asking about tomorrow, the 3rd (current D2). I don’t see anything but marginal risks here.
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Severe WX April 3rd-5th, 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley)
- Thread starter Lake Martin EF4
- Start date
Woops thought I linked the SPC outlook for tomorrow.
Muwx
Member
Is this a bigger concern in the northern or southern area? I’ve seen some discussion that this could be an issue in the ozarks.
Likely southern.
Michigan and vicinity is a concern on Wednesday too. Setup aloft is favorable for a significant severe event for the Great Lakes.
RAP going back to that more dangerous look with slightly more zonal, less amplified trough a bit further east, compared to GFS & ECM that of anything seem to be going the other way. The differences are very subtle but could mean a lot for the eventual event outcome - for example the latest RAP run was reminiscent of a large scale outbreak. Models like RAP are naturally favoured due to better resolution etc, but still globals shouldn't be discounted. Closer model watching necessary. The difference between a major tornado outbreak and isolated but still significant event will be a very fine line imo.
Noob question…RAP going back to that more dangerous look with slightly more zonal, less amplified trough a bit further east, compared to GFS & ECM that of anything seem to be going the other way. The differences are very subtle but could mean a lot for the eventual event outcome - for example the latest RAP run was reminiscent of a large scale outbreak. Models like RAP are naturally favoured due to better resolution etc, but still globals shouldn't be discounted. Closer model watching necessary. The difference between a major tornado outbreak and isolated but still significant event will be a very fine line imo.
How are you able to discern zonal flow and trough amplification?
You can discern zonal flow by how zonal (west to east) wind barbs are - the direction of wind is the opposite to the side of the line with the barbs on it. The amplification is just how amplified the wave is, i.e bigger distance between the top and bottom of the wave is more amplified. Hope this helped, sorry if my explanations were a bit iffy!
Here ya go
3km EHI for 00z on Tuesday. 
makes perfect sense @UK_EF4 @UncleJuJu98 I appreciate the guidance
CheeselandSkies
Member
Do you know why the 21Z is the "long-range" RAP run? Seems random as opposed to for example the HRRR having them at 00, 06, 12 and 18Z.
Not sure, I guess they wanted to be unique haha
CheeselandSkies
Member
CheeselandSkies
Member
CentralKyWeather
Member
Still see SW Tennessee busting the capping inversion late afternoon with more breaking out across WKY. Usually in WKY and CKY we usually don't see this type of energy build up.
See large hail and tornadoes Tuesday afternoon and evening. With wind event Wednesday morning.
See large hail and tornadoes Tuesday afternoon and evening. With wind event Wednesday morning.
- Thread starter
- #278
Lake Martin EF4
Member
Like, how bad of a wind event? Tuesday's probs gonna be a shortened school day, and I want to know if they just give up and s**tcan school on Wednesday.
Tomcats Forever!
Member
74 analog again...
notsoencrypted
Member
I personally would like it if the event moves later into the evening, even though I know that's more dangerous. 4/4 is an election day here in Wisconsin, and I'll be working it. I really, really don't want to have to deal with securing my location and getting voters into shelter. After 8pm, then I only have to worry about securing ballots and getting other workers to shelter. Much easier.