Severe WX April 3rd-5th, 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley)

[ColdFront]

Outlook for Tuesday. Seems a little more tame than what I was expecting

Storm Prediction Center May 24, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

They cite moisture depth, possible capping issues, and absence of lift as caveats

 

[TH2002]

They cite moisture depth, possible capping issues, and absence of lift as caveats

Not expecting anything close to what we saw on April 30 - but that's wishful thinking on my part because we really, really don't need this again. And I gotta work on Tuesday anyways so...

edit: March 30. 31. Double woops.

 

[ColdFront]

Not expecting anything close to what we saw on April 30 - but that's wishful thinking on my part because we really, really don't need this again. And I gotta work on Tuesday anyways so...

Do You mean what we saw on Friday?

 

[TH2002]

Do You mean what we saw on Friday?

Yeah, I meant March 30. Guess this is what I get for typing still half asleep

 

[ColdFront]

Yeah, I meant March 30. Guess this is what I get for typing still half asleep

I don’t want to do this to you but Friday was the 31st LOL! Get some sleep!

 

[JPWX]

I honestly would expect more of North MS to get involved in the next outlook especially going into Wednesday (maybe as soon as Tuesday night). I know the Southeast corner of Northeast MS is under a Marginal Risk for tomorrow. I know it may not be as potent as the previous two outbreaks, but I'm not taking any chances. A threat is a threat.

 

[cincywx]

 

[andyhb]

Nocturnal potential Tuesday night into Wednesday morning really needs to receive some attention.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

I mean...it's the 3KM NAM at the end of its range but I will take that sim ref/UH plot from 12Z. Just go back to the same place I was Friday, which the data was already pointing toward anyway.

 

[Avon]

Seems like models have trended a little slower with the front progression on Wednesday allowing a chance for severe in the great lakes region

 

[ColdFront]

Additional input from previously mentioned Met Randy Bowers on Tuesday.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Additional input from previously mentioned Met Randy Bowers on Tuesday.

Wow. Seem want keep nudging little more east off that map …. Kind haven’t paid much attention last 24 hours on this system . Trying catch up yard work

 

[UK_EF4]

Wow. Seem want keep nudging little more east off that map …. Kind haven’t paid much attention last 24 hours on this system . Trying catch up yard work

To me, the threat doesn't looks quite as bad as it looked 24 hours ago, though still significant. Hopefully remains on the downward trend.

 

[ColdFront]

To me, the threat doesn't looks quite as bad as it looked 24 hours ago, though still significant. Hopefully remains on the downward trend.

Also some discussion on WX Twitter about a more amplified SE ridge showing up in the models now.

So like you said, it does seem it’s not looking as significant as it was a few days ago, but we are in that weird 2-3 day range where everything can get wonky

this event may be more focused with smaller areas of convection instead of a “widespread” event where it’s everywhere like Friday

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Southeast Iowa still looks good to me. Although I may have suddenly become biased.

 

[Casuarina Head]

Also some discussion on WX Twitter about a more amplified SE ridge showing up in the models now.

The trend toward amplification over the past several cycles has been quite impressive. There is definitely more of a sheared-out appearance or “stretch.”

 

[ColdFront]

Southeast Iowa still looks good to me. Although I may have suddenly become biased.

Wow. 4K CAPE with 0-3 EHI of 11.

 

[ColdFront]

Hodographs for Tuesday firmly in that warm sector.

 

[KevinH]

What severe weather is expected to take place on April 3rd?

 

[ColdFront]

What severe weather is expected to take place on April 3rd?

Storm Prediction Center May 24, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov