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Severe WX April 3rd-5th, 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley)

Outlook for Tuesday. Seems a little more tame than what I was expecting

Storm Prediction Center Jul 15, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov

They cite moisture depth, possible capping issues, and absence of lift as caveats
 
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ColdFront said:
They cite moisture depth, possible capping issues, and absence of lift as caveats
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Not expecting anything close to what we saw on April 30 - but that's wishful thinking on my part because we really, really don't need this again. And I gotta work on Tuesday anyways so...

edit: March 30. 31. Double woops.
 
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I honestly would expect more of North MS to get involved in the next outlook especially going into Wednesday (maybe as soon as Tuesday night). I know the Southeast corner of Northeast MS is under a Marginal Risk for tomorrow. I know it may not be as potent as the previous two outbreaks, but I'm not taking any chances. A threat is a threat.
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
Wow. Seem want keep nudging little more east off that map …. Kind haven’t paid much attention last 24 hours on this system . Trying catch up yard work
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To me, the threat doesn't looks quite as bad as it looked 24 hours ago, though still significant. Hopefully remains on the downward trend.
 
UK_EF4 said:
To me, the threat doesn't looks quite as bad as it looked 24 hours ago, though still significant. Hopefully remains on the downward trend.
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Also some discussion on WX Twitter about a more amplified SE ridge showing up in the models now.

So like you said, it does seem it’s not looking as significant as it was a few days ago, but we are in that weird 2-3 day range where everything can get wonky

this event may be more focused with smaller areas of convection instead of a “widespread” event where it’s everywhere like Friday
 
ColdFront said:
Also some discussion on WX Twitter about a more amplified SE ridge showing up in the models now.
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EPSLoop.gif


The trend toward amplification over the past several cycles has been quite impressive. There is definitely more of a sheared-out appearance or “stretch.”
 
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