Severe WX April 3rd-5th, 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley)

[CheeselandSkies]

I personally would like it if the event moves later into the evening, even though I know that's more dangerous. 4/4 is an election day here in Wisconsin, and I'll be working it. I really, really don't want to have to deal with securing my location and getting voters into shelter. After 8pm, then I only have to worry about securing ballots and getting other workers to shelter. Much easier.

I'm thinking any threats for Wisconsin should be later in the evening as it is, rather like Friday.

Good luck and stay safe! My wife and I voted in-person absentee today so that I can leave to chase right after work Tuesday.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

I personally would like it if the event moves later into the evening, even though I know that's more dangerous. 4/4 is an election day here in Wisconsin, and I'll be working it. I really, really don't want to have to deal with securing my location and getting voters into shelter. After 8pm, then I only have to worry about securing ballots and getting other workers to shelter. Much easier.

I would like it if it moved earlier. I want to be out of school as soon as possible on Tues.

 

[ColdFront]

I would like it if it moved earlier. I want to be out of school as soon as possible on Tues.

Oh to be young and banking on those weather days to get you out of school…

 

[notsoencrypted]

I'm thinking any threats for Wisconsin should be later in the evening as it is, rather like Friday.

Good luck and stay safe! My wife and I voted in-person absentee today so that I can leave to chase right after work Tuesday.

Yeah, that's what I was thinking, too. Just with the talk of the threat moving later, I'm allll for that. 7:30p warning (like Friday) would be awful. Overall, I'd just love for this event to fall apart. Nobody needs this so soon.

 

[warneagle]

Oh to be young and banking on those weather days to get you out of school…

People up here are confused when I explain that we had way more tornado/hurricane days than snow days when I was a kid.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[ColdFront]

Even though there’s still a lot of questions on this setup, you don’t see STP values like that often.

Also music to @CheeselandSkies ears LOL

 

[ColdFront]

People up here are confused when I explain that we had way more tornado/hurricane days than snow days when I was a kid.

I’m from Eastern KY - besides snow, the only times I remember getting out early-ish were 3/2/2012 and 4/27/2011.

We were firmly in the moderate on 4/27. The SPC was actually calling for a broken line of cells to form in western KY and pretty much rake the state that day, but the MCS In NW Alabama may have saved us from a high end day

 

[ColdFront]

if a storm were to initiate in this kind of environment…..

Sounding from Iowa/IL border

 

[TornadoFan]

if a storm were to initiate in this kind of environment…..

Sounding from Iowa/IL border
View attachment 19795

Let's not and say we did, mother nature.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

if a storm were to initiate in this kind of environment…..

Sounding from Iowa/IL border
View attachment 19795

Holy Jesus ….

 

[notsoencrypted]

Yeah, that sounding well illustrates the high values for significant tornado threat...

 

[ColdFront]

More from this guy:

 

[Tanner]

More from this guy:

I'm honestly not impressed by this setup.

 

[ColdFront]

I'm honestly not impressed by this setup.

It has some major issues judging from what I’m seeing others say online, even Evan Bentley from SPC lol I never thought I’d say that about a 5K Cape, 11+ EHI set up, but here we are.

 

[Tanner]

It has some major issues judging from what I’m seeing others say online, even Evan Bentley from SPC lol I never thought I’d say that about a 5K Cape, 11+ EHI set up, but here we are.

It certainly does have a lot going for it, but the skepticism is justified. The caveats such as capping and weak forcing really drag the threat down. I'm still in the consensus that things could change, because if we've learned much in 2023 about models it's that they haven't been very competent.

 

[jiharris0220]

It’s just as I was talking about yesterday. The modest forcing, exceptional cap, and high LFC together totally do in any potential discrete development.
Its nice to see that the trend has only gotten more apparent as the event nears.
Again, for everyones sake considering what happened 2days ago, lets hope this continues.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Day 2 update close 2!hours from now …. I am calling a moderate risk along Iowa Illinois border .there may be some capping issues , but storm can get going this environment, hell breaks loose

 

[WhirlingWx]

Day 2 update close 2!hours from now …. I am calling a moderate risk along Iowa Illinois border .there may be some capping issues , but storm can get going this environment, hell breaks loose

You called it pretty nicely. For some reason today I've had problems attaching images on mobile, so someone else will have to do it, but there's a moderate risk for the region of the MO/IA/IL region, driven by a 15% hatched tornado risk.

 

[brianc33710]

You called it pretty nicely. For some reason today I've had problems attaching images on mobile, so someone else will have to do it, but there's a moderate risk for the region of the MO/IA/IL region, driven by a 15% hatched tornado risk.

I don't see the update on either Chrome or Firefox, just the ENH risk. And I've refreshed the page a bunch. But I am on my phone. Is that the problem?