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Severe WX April 12-15th, 2018 Severe Potential

I saw mention that this will likely shift more north so is this looking like a central and north Alabama/ Tennessee threat or are areas closer to the coast likely to be included also?

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apocalyptic_pleasures said:
I saw mention that this will likely shift more north so is this looking like a central and north Alabama/ Tennessee threat or are areas closer to the coast likely to be included also?

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It is probably too early to rule out any area, but for now, I am thinking north of Montgomery, through Tenn. Valley, up into Ohio Valley...maybe further north, hard to say due to lack of instability on gfs
 
I've been traveling all weekend and don't have computer access. Are we still talking about a potentially high-end threat with this?
 
warneagle said:
I've been traveling all weekend and don't have computer access. Are we still talking about a potentially high-end threat with this?
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I would say it is unlikely a high end event due to the lack of instability and helicity
 
It's too early to rule out the potential high/low-endness of the event, especially when basing it off the D6 GFS which is notoriously bad with thermodynamic profiles, especially when it's still in the MR.
 
warneagle said:
I've been traveling all weekend and don't have computer access. Are we still talking about a potentially high-end threat with this?
Click to expand...

Depends on instability as has been mentioned. The Euro has ~1000 or so Cape across central AL Saturday afternoon, so the squall line may be potent with the strong forcing as Kory mentioned earlier. That said a high end tornado outbreak looks unlikely at the point, tons of linear forcing right now will make this by large a squall line threat. That could change in the coming days, but that is what it looks like right now.
 
BMX mentions Saturday's potential threat in this morning's AFD, but Matt said there is still too much model inconsistency:

"At the same time, a powerful jet streak moving
across the Rockies is expected to carve out a large trough over
Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. This system will have to be
watched for potential severe storms on Saturday as it heads east
of the Mississippi River. Models are struggling with the evolution
of the upper-level trough and in particular, its amplitude. The
recent progressive and generally low amplitude weather pattern
does not favor a high amplitude trough, but that is exactly what
several models are suggesting. It is certainly possible that
models will trend toward more of an open wave and a higher
potential for severe storms, but that remains to be seen. A severe
weather threat will not be mentioned in the HWO at this time due
to poor model run-to-run consistency."

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...MX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
 
WAFF 48 in Huntsville going ahead with a 1st Alert Weather Day for Saturday





More from Brad Travis on Facebook(apparently I'm not smart enough to know how to imbed a Facebook post):


Brad Travis WAFF 48 Meteorologist
24 mins ·
Going with a First Alert for Saturday. The potential for severe storms continues to show up ahead of a strong cold front that will move in late Saturday afternoon/evening. The timing is critical on this system. If it comes in later in the afternoon and the jet stream becomes negatively tilted it becomes more of a widespread threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds. If it comes in earlier with a neutral tilt it will become more of a straight line wind threat with embedded spin up tornado potential. Stay tuned for the latest information regarding this weekend storm. #WAFF48#ALWX #TNWX #MSWX
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I would just like a weekend this month that isn't garbage weather. Indications A-Day weekend may be stormy (I know that is out of the scope of this thread, it just pertains to my previous point).
 
60-70 kt LLJ and 50-60 kt 0-6km shear on the Euro for Saturday evening. Superimpose that over a narrow, but sufficient warm sector with CAPE near 1000 J/KG, that will pose the potential for a stout severe wx event.
 
Mike S said:
WAFF 48 in Huntsville going ahead with a 1st Alert Weather Day for Saturday





More from Brad Travis on Facebook(apparently I'm not smart enough to know how to imbed a Facebook post):
Click to expand...


That is some BIG wording for 6 days out. Surprised he's going that hard so early publicly, but the Euro is definitely a significant threat..
 
At this point, I'm not sure which model to believe, but there should be at least some severe on Saturday. A threat from damaging winds is pretty likely at this point and some level of tornado risk will probably be there as well. The Euro in particular has a pretty ominous look. I'd say warning people early never hurt, especially since most major models are telling us to expect at least some strong/severe storms.
 
What grabs my attention is how active we've been over the last 6-7 weeks in the deep/mid-south. While that alone is certainly not an overly strong discriminator, it becomes a bit ominous when combined with the pattern shown by the ensembles for several weeks.
 
rolltide_130 said:
That is some BIG wording for 6 days out. Surprised he's going that hard so early publicly, but the Euro is definitely a significant threat..
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I was surprised they jumped in with the First Alert designation as well. I expected a "keep your eye on" type post today, but not that. I trust Brad & Co. though so that makes it all the more concerning they've already ramped up their wording.
 
Mike S said:
I was surprised they jumped in with the First Alert designation as well. I expected a "keep your eye on" type post today, but not that. I trust Brad & Co. though so that makes it all the more concerning they've already ramped up their wording.
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He's second to none in the Huntsville market regarding severe weather, and that's saying a lot considering how good the crew at WHNT is.
 
The signal has been on long range models now for a week for a severe weather threat, I am anxious to see when we get into NAM territory how this system is gonna look.
 
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