I have seen many euro runs that look like that in the beginning that ends up being a SE severe maker....not sure that is the case this time around, but usually a deamp trend tends to mean further east.
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rolltide_130
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Overdoing the strength of the southeast ridge is a very big bias problem. It may take a couple runs but I fully expect that issue to correct itself.
ARCC
Member
Very possible. Either way, another big system on its heels with the big jet streak entering into California at hour 240 with deep moisture in place over the south. Gonna be a lot of model watching over the next two weeks.
The pattern next week is going to mean trouble for someone late in the week, that's a given.
Kory
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EPS would agree that next weekend's system will be a problem for Dixie.
The models are already starting to disagree on whether or not there will even be any severe weather late next week. 0Z GFS has much of central OK and KS under EHI values >4 on Thursday evening. 0Z CFS has CAPE values >2,000 over part of central OK during that same time frame, but even higher values over central TX Friday and Saturday. Other models don't seem to suggest much out of the ordinary. This will almost certainly be one of those "wait and see"-type events.
rolltide_130
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? I don't see any major global with no severe weather threat next week. The 0z Euro is an omnious Dixie look as well. What models are you talking about?
Correction *0z Euro
Some models (such as GEFS and GDPS) don't seem to have as much in the way of severe weather ingredients across the eastern/central CONUS over the period of Thursday-Sunday. Meanwhile, the GFS, CFS, ECMWF, and EPS all have at least some chance of severe weather over that area/period.
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GFS and Euro showing a second disturbance around the 17th. Gonna be an interesting month that's for sure.
Yes, see several possible widespread events...a strong and large upper low moving slowly east in mid April, not good...just looking for some consisantcy in dates and location.
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SPC starting to highlight regions in the LR, day 6. I'm sure placement will shift & possibly trend northward.
Euro still showing some fair consistency (with the exception of timing the low placement around 12 hours sooner, 12 hours later):
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tennessee storm chaser
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yeah... looks to be the start of a active severe pattern coming up
SPC starting to highlight regions in the LR, day 6. I'm sure placement will shift & possibly trend northward.
Euro still showing some fair consistency (with the exception of timing the low placement around 12 hours sooner, 12 hours later):
Kory
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GFS seems to be in its own world regarding this weekend's system...go figure. Euro/CMC agree with the slower solution and much better moisture return allowing a more potent warm sector. UKMET through 144 hrs agrees with the slower evolution like the Euro/CMC.
Very deep trough on the models which takes on a negative tilt. I never like to talk storm mode this far out, but this would probably be another nasty squall line marching across the South.
Very deep trough on the models which takes on a negative tilt. I never like to talk storm mode this far out, but this would probably be another nasty squall line marching across the South.
tennessee storm chaser
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low level shear that been showing on the euro... favor a tornado threat... also wind fields look rather impressive this far out...
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At least this system isn't on a Wednesday...
tennessee storm chaser
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no... true... but this threat does begin on a friday 13th... which is creepy in its on way... thats if your superstitious....
NWMSGuy
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Do you think the current Outlook SPC has highlighted will be expanded eastward? I could see Memphis getting in on this.
westtnstormtracker
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I can see this expanded eastward spc has hinted on it
tennessee storm chaser
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Yes. At this time....
CheeselandSkies
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12Z GFS verbatim isn't especially impressive. Thursday would be a decent day for the Plains except it's capped. Front pushes through the MS Valley Friday morning too early for peak heating, and by the time it gets to the OH/TN valleys the system is occluded with flow mostly parallel to the cold front. Then it wipes the Gulf dry on Monday yet somehow has upper 60s to the Red River by Wedensday evening.