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Severe WX April 12-15th, 2018 Severe Potential

Richardjacks said:
I have seen many euro runs that look like that in the beginning that ends up being a SE severe maker....not sure that is the case this time around, but usually a deamp trend tends to mean further east.
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Overdoing the strength of the southeast ridge is a very big bias problem. It may take a couple runs but I fully expect that issue to correct itself.
 
rolltide_130 said:
The Euro is notorious for overamplifying things at this range. I'm not particularly concerned about it at this juncture. If anything, it's a good thing because that means that things may not be underamped at verification.
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Very possible. Either way, another big system on its heels with the big jet streak entering into California at hour 240 with deep moisture in place over the south. Gonna be a lot of model watching over the next two weeks.
 
The models are already starting to disagree on whether or not there will even be any severe weather late next week. 0Z GFS has much of central OK and KS under EHI values >4 on Thursday evening. 0Z CFS has CAPE values >2,000 over part of central OK during that same time frame, but even higher values over central TX Friday and Saturday. Other models don't seem to suggest much out of the ordinary. This will almost certainly be one of those "wait and see"-type events.
 
Tennie said:
The models are already starting to disagree on whether or not there will even be any severe weather late next week. 0Z GFS has much of central OK and KS under EHI values >4 on Thursday evening. 0Z CFS has CAPE values >2,000 over part of central OK during that same time frame, but even higher values over central TX Friday and Saturday. Other models don't seem to suggest much out of the ordinary. This will almost certainly be one of those "wait and see"-type events.
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? I don't see any major global with no severe weather threat next week. The 0z Euro is an omnious Dixie look as well. What models are you talking about?

Correction *0z Euro
 
rolltide_130 said:
? I don't see any major global with no severe weather threat next week. The 0z Euro is an omnious Dixie look as well. What models are you talking about?

Correction *0z Euro
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Some models (such as GEFS and GDPS) don't seem to have as much in the way of severe weather ingredients across the eastern/central CONUS over the period of Thursday-Sunday. Meanwhile, the GFS, CFS, ECMWF, and EPS all have at least some chance of severe weather over that area/period.
 
GFS and Euro showing a second disturbance around the 17th. Gonna be an interesting month that's for sure.
 
7PrxTOrl.jpg

SPC starting to highlight regions in the LR, day 6. I'm sure placement will shift & possibly trend northward.
Euro still showing some fair consistency (with the exception of timing the low placement around 12 hours sooner, 12 hours later):
8HydQpHl.jpg
 
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KoD said:
7PrxTOrl.jpg

SPC starting to highlight regions in the LR, day 6. I'm sure placement will shift & possibly trend northward.
Euro still showing some fair consistency (with the exception of timing the low placement around 12 hours sooner, 12 hours later):
8HydQpHl.jpg
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yeah... looks to be the start of a active severe pattern coming up
 
GFS seems to be in its own world regarding this weekend's system...go figure. Euro/CMC agree with the slower solution and much better moisture return allowing a more potent warm sector. UKMET through 144 hrs agrees with the slower evolution like the Euro/CMC.

Very deep trough on the models which takes on a negative tilt. I never like to talk storm mode this far out, but this would probably be another nasty squall line marching across the South.
 
Kory said:
GFS seems to be in its own world regarding this weekend's system...go figure. Euro/CMC agree with the slower solution and much better moisture return allowing a more potent warm sector. UKMET through 144 hrs agrees with the slower evolution like the Euro/CMC.

Very deep trough on the models which takes on a negative tilt. I never like to talk storm mode this far out, but this would probably be another nasty squall line marching across the South.
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low level shear that been showing on the euro... favor a tornado threat... also wind fields look rather impressive this far out...
 
12Z GFS verbatim isn't especially impressive. Thursday would be a decent day for the Plains except it's capped. Front pushes through the MS Valley Friday morning too early for peak heating, and by the time it gets to the OH/TN valleys the system is occluded with flow mostly parallel to the cold front. Then it wipes the Gulf dry on Monday yet somehow has upper 60s to the Red River by Wedensday evening.
 
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