2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[ashtonlemleywx]

4 named storms 2 hurricanes and a major along with 40+ ace before mid August is by no stretch of the imagination “below average”.

This isn’t like 2020 with a bunch of slop storms that would’ve never been named 20 years ago. Literally only 4 seasons are ahead of this one in terms of ace as of now.
View attachment 29631
Sal hasn’t been a “huge hindrance” at all otherwise this wouldn’t be the case, and this is despite it being above average this year as well, which comes back to my point that Sal only affects the ability of convection to pop up.

It has no bearing on already established tropical waves, you’re getting Sal confused with dry air, which are NOT the same thing.

I respect your opinion and explanations. I chase tornadoes not hurricanes, so I'm not a tropical expert. I'm just wondering where do you think the dry air comes from if the SAL has nothing to do with it? If the dusty air from the SAL doesn't make dry air, what is doing it? If you have a better explanation I would love to hear it because I want to understand these things.

Seems like the western side of the MDR is getting dominated by dry air and dust at the moment. We have the warmest Atlantic on record, favorable wind shear, and the MDR is typically more active at this point. I know a lot can change between now and then....but I'm going to die on the hill saying that SAL has a lot to do with it. I think without the SAL... the Atlantic would've exploded into something extraordinary by now given the favorable conditions.

Maybe I need to be re-educated on the whole subject, but I've always heard that the SAL typically dies down and starts producing less dust/dry air around 2nd-3rd week of August.... is it just a coincidence that is typically the time the "Tropical light switch" flips on and things ramp up?

Also I don't know if I would use ACE as an indicator of an above average season, especially in August. I would maybe wait towards end of season to start throwing ACE around. Go subtract the 1 anomalous July Cat 5 from the equation and you have an average/below average ACE.

 

[jiharris0220]

I respect your opinion and explanations. I chase tornadoes not hurricanes, so I'm not a tropical expert. I'm just wondering where do you think the dry air comes from if the SAL has nothing to do with it? If the dusty air from the SAL doesn't make dry air, what is doing it? If you have a better explanation I would love to hear it because I want to understand these things.

Seems like the western side of the MDR is getting dominated by dry air and dust at the moment. We have the warmest Atlantic on record, favorable wind shear, and the MDR is typically more active at this point. I know a lot can change between now and then....but I'm going to die on the hill saying that SAL has a lot to do with it. I think without the SAL... the Atlantic would've exploded into something extraordinary by now given the favorable conditions.

Maybe I need to be re-educated on the whole subject, but I've always heard that the SAL typically dies down and starts producing less dust/dry air around 2nd-3rd week of August.... is it just a coincidence that is typically the time the "Tropical light switch" flips on and things ramp up?

Also I don't know if I would use ACE as an indicator of an above average season, especially in August. I would maybe wait towards end of season to start throwing ACE around. Go subtract the 1 anomalous July Cat 5 from the equation and you have an average/below average ACE.

To your first point, Sal and dry air are not the same thing as Sal is dust while dry air is lack of moisture, you can have moist air with Sal.

Obviously the Sahara desert is going to have dry air because semi permanent trade winds keep moisture from settling there, the dust is simply a bye product of the desertificated sands.

Sal has almost nothing to do with the mdr being quiet right now, what’s happening is that the ITCZ is higher up in latitude than average which is sending waves above 15Dgr north into dry, stable air, this will likely change come late August as models are already detecting systems by then.


2017 didn’t have its first mdr hurricane until early September and 1961 didn’t have its second named storm until early September and still managed to pull 189 ace.

Meanwhile 2024 already has over 50ace, a June mdr major, and 3 hurricanes, all of which made landfall by the way.

Ace obviously isn’t gospel but it is a very important indicator, even without Beryl we would be way above 2017, 2018, 2020, etc.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

Thank you for explaining this to me. I never considered the latitude of the ITCZ, but the way you broke it down makes perfect sense. I just always thought that dust plumes absorbed moisture thus making the air more dry.

I was just reading that dust particles can favor cloud formation, and that Saharan dust transports can also increase precipitation under certain conditions.

 

[jiharris0220]

Here’s a perfect example of yesterday’s discussion regarding what’s temporarily holding back the Atlantic right now.

See this tropical wave? Notice how it’s so far north that it’s in the Sahara desert.

But what you will also notice is that despite being literally incapsulated in Sal, it’s wholly unaffected because it’s an already established system.

Look at the cumulus ark above it though, and notice the convection is struggling to become thunderstorms.

This is what Sal does, limit convection that’s trying to initiate, but as you can see if a system is already established it has no affect. But even this EML effect Sal contains has its limits because despite it some cumulus clouds are still managing to become cumulonimbus.

Remember what I said about you can have Sal but still have a moist environment? This sounding shows what I’m talking about, the tropical wave is located in an environment rich in mid level moisture.

What’s actually going to kill this wave however is the modest sea surface temperatures and dry air all because of its northern displacement.

Had this been further south, we likely would’ve gotten a hurricane in a matter of 4 days, we can only hope for a miracle that the monsoon trough stays displaced to the north until at least mid September or we’re in trouble.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

Here’s a perfect example of yesterday’s discussion regarding what’s temporarily holding back the Atlantic right now.
View attachment 29673
See this tropical wave? Notice how it’s so far north that it’s in the Sahara desert.

But what you will also notice is that despite being literally incapsulated in Sal, it’s wholly unaffected because it’s an already established system.

Look at the cumulus ark above it though, and notice the convection is struggling to become thunderstorms.

This is what Sal does, limit convection that’s trying to initiate, but as you can see if a system is already established it has no affect. But even this EML effect Sal contains has its limits because despite it some cumulus clouds are still managing to become cumulonimbus.
View attachment 29675
Remember what I said about you can have Sal but still have a moist environment? This sounding shows what I’m talking about, the tropical wave is located in an environment rich in mid level moisture.

What’s actually going to kill this wave however is the modest sea surface temperatures and dry air all because of its northern displacement.

Had this been further south, we likely would’ve gotten a hurricane in a matter of 4 days, we can only hope for a miracle that the monsoon trough stays displaced to the north until at least mid September or we’re in trouble.

I'm extremely impressed with your explanation.

I've chatted with well established Mets about this topic all week and you broke it down better than anyone I've seen. Most of them were like me and made SAL the #1 factor for the MDR lull.

You are now my go-to for Tropical analysis

 

[JPWX]

12z Euro Ensemble and Euro Ensemble Control 15 day precip anomalies suggest the Gulf is the place to watch the next 2 weeks for development.

 

[JPWX]

The pressure pattern for September and 46 day precipitation anomalies off the Euro Weeklies. Suggest the Caribbean and Gulf will be the places to watch for tropical activity.

 

[JPWX]

The North Atlantic is beginning to "cool off". Like I said in a previous post, with the North Atlantic being so warm, it's been harder to get convergence across the south. So while we may not get a plethora of activity from the MDR any time soon, you are likely to get more activity closer to home from the Caribbean and Gulf. Don't get me wrong. The MDR is very warm and running above normal. However, until you really cool off the North Atlantic, any tropical wave that comes off the African coast probably won't develop until it gets further west. It's like a thunderstorm. You need a clash of warm/cold air to converge causing rising cumulonimbus and building thunderstorms. Same general fashion in the Atlantic. There's no clashing when both the North Atlantic and MDR are above normal.

While we all want to blame the dust or whatever you wanna call it for the dearth of activity in the Atlantic, the fact is we've been in unfavorable MJO phase. The MJO is on the move though with the recent burst of activity in the Western Pacific and now in the Eastern/Central Pacific.

Favorable Atlantic phases for tropical development are 8,1,2, and 3.

I'm just trying to explain there's a lot more to it than just the simple wind shear and dry air.

 

[TheSuckZone]

I was told there would be multiple super hurricanes every year now

 

[jiharris0220]

The North Atlantic is beginning to "cool off". Like I said in a previous post, with the North Atlantic being so warm, it's been harder to get convergence across the south. So while we may not get a plethora of activity from the MDR any time soon, you are likely to get more activity closer to home from the Caribbean and Gulf. Don't get me wrong. The MDR is very warm and running above normal. However, until you really cool off the North Atlantic, any tropical wave that comes off the African coast probably won't develop until it gets further west. It's like a thunderstorm. You need a clash of warm/cold air to converge causing rising cumulonimbus and building thunderstorms. Same general fashion in the Atlantic. There's no clashing when both the North Atlantic and MDR are above normal.

While we all want to blame the dust or whatever you wanna call it for the dearth of activity in the Atlantic, the fact is we've been in unfavorable MJO phase. The MJO is on the move though with the recent burst of activity in the Western Pacific and now in the Eastern/Central Pacific.

Favorable Atlantic phases for tropical development are 8,1,2, and 3.

I'm just trying to explain there's a lot more to it than just the simple wind shear and dry air.

So about that, the CDAS has a cold bias and is very sensitive to Sal which is one of the causes of this cold bias.

The NOAA coral reef data set is much more accurate and still shows a well above average mdr.

NOAA Office of Satellite and Product Operations (OSPO)

Access OSPO's Current Operational Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly charts, illustrating deviations from long-term averages to support climate analysis and environmental monitoring.

www.ospo.noaa.gov

There’s actually not much correlation between warm subtropics with low mdr activity if the mdr is warm also. I mean, the warm blob has kinda been there since 2015.

In actuality, a warm subtropics is better for the mdr as it raises instability in the area and reduces dry air intrusions.

Again, the reason for the lack of late August activity is due to a northernly displaced monsoon trough, which is causing waves to exit Africa above 20dgr north into dry air and cool waters, effectively nullifying them.

The most favorable phase for the Atlantic is when the -mjo phase is long gone, because like kelvin waves, there is lag time.

This is why the pacific is convectively active right now while the Atlantic is not, this will change come late September.

 

[jiharris0220]

I was told there would be multiple super hurricanes every year now

I’m not sure what you mean by super hurricanes every year? Kind of a vague statement.

But I’m assuming you’re talking about the weather weenies over hyping every season.

Although every season since 2016 has been devastating so can’t say I blame them.

 

[lake.effect]

The Gulf of Mexico is an absolute powder keg. Record high levels of OHC locked and loaded.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Indications of tropical development in the extended (end of August and early September) have up-ticked on the models. The current lull could turn the tables quickly.


Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

• During the past 2 weeks, the RMM-based MJO signal has increased in amplitude and is now located over the Indian Ocean (Phase 2).
• Dynamical models are in good agreement regarding enhanced MJO activity across the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent during the next 2 weeks.
• The MJO propagation across the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent supports an enhanced easterly wave train coming off of Africa in late August into early September.
• Combined with anomalously warm SSTs, and the approaching climatological peak of hurricane season, this favors high chances for tropical cyclone (TC) development over the Atlantic Main Development Region despite the suppressed convective pattern aloft.
• In the near term, the Western Pacific is forecast to be relatively quiet in terms of TC activity, although an uptick in TC formation potential is likely by weeks 2 and 3 as the enhanced convective envelope moves closer to the region.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[JPWX]

View attachment 29699

Fits to what @Taylor Campbell posted above from CPC earlier in the week.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

 

[Taylor Campbell]

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

ICON has this developing into Hurricane in the Caribbean. ICON did well for Beryl. This 2nd image is 06z GFS

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

Also we got an orange

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

Also there definitely seems to be a weak circulation forming near South TX. So much lightning. Regardless if this becomes a depression or not, it will dump tons of rain over South TX and Louisiana