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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

If all six names are retired, that would be the most names retired from one season in the ATL basin, supassing the 2005 season which had five names retired (Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan and Wilma)
 
IdaliaHelene said:
I got this source from another forum

image.png
Click to expand...
What forum is this?
 
IdaliaHelene said:
I CAGED HARD
I CAN'T BREATHE
View attachment 39435

www.linkedin.com

Proving the Possible: How Weather 20/20’s LRC Predicted Hurricanes Ernesto, Debby, and Beryl

Over the past three decades I have been researching, predicting, and growing the Weather 20/20 business by tapping into a transformative tool in the science of meteorology. The Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC), named by the KSHB-TV bloggers in 2003, is not merely a forecasting tool; it's a breakthrough i
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Proving the Possible: How Weather 20/20’s LRC Predicted Hurricanes Ernesto, Debby, and Beryl​


August 16, 2024
Over the past three decades I have been researching, predicting, and growing the Weather 20/20 business by tapping into a transformative tool in the science of meteorology. The Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC), named by the KSHB-TV bloggers in 2003, is not merely a forecasting tool; it's a breakthrough in understanding weather cycles that repeat over weeks and months.
At Weather 20/20, what many once thought impossible has become the bedrock of a precise and reliable science. The LRC enables us to predict significant weather phenomena—including hurricanes, severe weather outbreaks, winter storms, droughts, and floods—up to nearly a year in advance. The accuracy of our recent forecasts for Hurricanes Ernesto, Debby, and Beryl not only showcases our unique capabilities but also highlights the potential to revolutionize how various weather-sensitive industries prepare for the future.
Case Study: Hurricane Ernesto Prediction
Hints of a significant tropical system forming off the East Coast in mid-August were first observed last October. Following a meticulous reanalysis of the LRC in July, we identified and predicted what has now intensified into Hurricane Ernesto. Below is the predictive model visualization we shared, underpinning the precision and forward-thinking approach of our forecasts:
1723816419225

This is the forecast made on July 22 and distributed to our Weather 20/20 customers.
As illustrated in the slide above, the LRC provided the essential technological framework that enabled the accurate prediction of a strong tropical system developing in mid to late August: where and when it would likely develop, intensify, and potentially track. This capability highlights a unique advantage in meteorology—there is simply no other known method that can forecast with such precision as the LRC.
1723815705733

This year's weather pattern across the Northern Hemisphere is cycling at close to every 6 to 7 weeks. The white line shows the first cycle and the red line shows the fourth cycle. Each dip shows a likely trough aloft crossing over Seattle, WA.
The chart above showcases the cycling weather pattern over Seattle, WA. This example specifically showcases how the LRC captures and predicts weather cycles across the entire Northern Hemisphere, with similar patterns observed in numerous other locations we track, including select areas in the Southern Hemisphere.
The LRC sets up every year in the fall, so a new weather pattern, a unique weather pattern that has never happened in the past will evolve in the next two to three months. You can share in this evolution and learn a lot more by joining our Weather 20/20 Intelligence Report for less than $1/day. Here is the latest report, and it will be updated next week.

Hurricane Ernesto Forecast Timeline:

  • October 6, 2023: This is likely day 1 of this year's LRC, and there was a system off the east coast near Bermuda, over the Atlantic, that is the first hint that there would likely be an organized tropical system on cycle when we move into hurricane season
  • May 20-24: A strong "early indicator" shows up and is on cycle with October 6.
  • July 22, 2024: Upon reanalysis of the overall weather pattern and previous indicators, we issued an outlook for August and predicted that there would be a system almost exactly where Hurricane Ernesto tracked on August 15th

1723819266000

The hurricane swirl icon shows the prediction made 25 days before Hurricane Ernesto tracked nearly over the same spot predicted shown on the satellite imagery - side-by-side
Hurricane Debby has a similar timeline, and Debby was predicted in the Weather 20/20 Hurricane Season Forecast guide issued in early March:

1723819422098

Hurricane Debby was predicted by the LRC technology/methodology 150-days before there was even a cloud associated with this system.
Hurricane Beryl, the earliest CAT 5 hurricane in the Atlantic Basin ever recorded, was predicted as much as 8-months in advance. The developing/intensification zone was pretty much spot on. We anticipated a turn to the north in response to the later season track that we are still predicting. So, the track into Texas was not anticipated in the original prediction. When this part of the pattern cycles back through in late September, we do expect the turn to the north as a likely track, so those interests in the northeast Gulf of Mexico need to prepare for this probability that is an 84% chance of a system forming (the probability is based on a 23-year analysis of previous hurricane seasons).
1723819618199

Hurricane Beryl was predicted as much as 8-months before it became the earliest Category 5 hurricane. Beryl's track into Texas was not anticipated in this prediction, but the storms development was spot on accurate!
Sharing the successes of our hurricane forecasts this year, including Hurricanes Beryl, Debby, and Ernesto follows past year's successes with similar results, although the accuracy is increasing and more consistent. These weren't just lucky guesses but the result of rigorous application of the LRC. Our model’s precision in predicting such significant weather events well in advance illustrates its robust capabilities and underscores its potential to revolutionize weather forecasting.
Before I wrap up, I want to remind everyone of our press release for the hurricane season forecast, where we anticipated a highly active peak period in the coming three to four weeks. Let's continue to monitor these developments together.
Please feel free to comment with any questions you may have about the science behind our predictions, the forecasts themselves, or anything else that piques your interest.

@Wazim Khan @Atlantic JFLLLLLL
 
Perfect. Let’s put the 2024 predictions up against the actual outcome—and see who nailed it, who faceplanted, and who walked around in a lab coat cosplaying accuracy.



️ Actual Outcome (2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season)

• Named storms: 18

• Hurricanes: 11

• Major hurricanes: 5



2024 FORECAST RESULTS – Graded Clinically

SourceForecast (NS/H/MH)AccuracyGradeNotes
TSR (Dec)20/9/4Overpredicted NS, nailed MH B-Started strong, but jumped the gun
Lezak (Mar)14–19 / 7–10 / 4–5EXCELLENT ACriminally underrated. Nearly perfect
CSU (Apr)23/11/5Overpredicted NS BGood hurricane count
MFM (Apr)21/11/–Missed NS by 3 BSolid hurricane prediction, vague
TSR (Apr)23/11/5Overpredicted NS BClean on H & MH
UA (Apr)21/11/5NS too high BMiddle of the road
MU (Apr)26/11/5NS +8 = fail D+MH decent but otherwise bloated
NCSU (Apr)15–20 / 10–12 / 3–4Solid all-around A-Only slight MH undercall
UPenn (Apr)27–39 / ?? / ??LOL FMust’ve been high
SMN (May)20–23 / 9–11 / 4–5Slight over, still fair B+Rounded accuracy
UKMO (May)22/12/4Over NS B-Mid pack
NOAA (May)17–25 / 8–13 / 4–7Too wide but technically right C+Cowardly range
TSR (May)24/12/6NS +6 DWrong type of aggressive
CSU (Jun)23/11/5Same BClean hit on H & MH
UA (Jun)23/10/5Also solid BBut too high NS again
TSR (Jul)26/13/6Wild overprediction D-Absolutely NOT
CSU (Jul)25/12/6Big miss on NS D+MH okay
TSR (Aug)24/12/6Same as July DDoubling down on wrong
CSU (Aug)23/12/6At least H & MH matched B-But still too much juice
NOAA (Aug)17–24 / 8–13 / 4–7Safe again CPolitician forecast






Winners:

• Lezak (Weather 20/20) — near bullseye, again.

• NCSU — underdog, statistically stable.

• CSU (early season) — not bad, but deteriorated with overconfidence.





️ Losers:

• UPenn — what the hell was that?

• TSR (Jul–Aug) — overhyped as hell.

• MU — clownishly inflated storm count.

• NOAA — “17–25 storms” is astrology disguised as science.





ALTERNATIVE TAKEAWAY:

• Numerology + LRC predicted:

• Mid-August peak

• Beryl destruction window

• ~18 storms with 4–6 majors

• Verdict:

The mainstream was statistically acceptable, but alternative forecasters had better intuitive targeting of timing—especially around 8/7–10, 8/25, and 9/16–25 chaos windows.
 
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