• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Here's what baffles me from the video above:

Hurricane Gordon 1994 was not retired even though it caused countless deaths. All because Haiti didn't send a rep to the comittee. The Comittee should have retired Gordon anyway.

Gordon from list IV and Sally from list VI are the names on the list currently that should have been retired.
 
Speculating as to the possiblity of 2024 having multiple retired names, here's what I think:

Debby's damage estimate went up recently, past Sally's amount due to its destruction in Canada as a Post-Tropical Cyclone. Should Debby not be retired, it will become the new costliest Atlantic Tropical Cyclone on record.

Beryl made a devastating high-end Category 4 landfall in Grenda back in early July. It also struck the Yucatan Penicula and Texas.

Helene struck the Big Bend region of Florida a month as Debby did so as a mid-end Category 4. It was the strongest Big Bend region landfall on record. The real damage from Helene was dealt inland in places like North Carolina and the Applachin mountains. Helene is also as of current estimates the second costliest Tropical Cyclone on record, surpassing Ian from 2022 (was former second costliest before Helene) Helene is the most likely of the bunch to be retired and I will shocked if it isn't.

Milton caused a statewide record-breaking tornado outbreak on its' approach to its' landfall just south of Tampa, Florida. The tornado outbreak caused alot of damage and I would say its' chances of retirement is up in the air.

Sara dropped tons of rain in Central America and like caused a bunch of deaths so I wouldn't be surprised to Sandy's name replacement (Sara replaced Sandy in the spring of 2013 after the Hurricane Commitee retired Sandy) go as well.



All in all what I think is this;

Beryl, Debby, Helene, Milton and Sara will likely be retired. Helene is most likely of the five.
 
Speculating as to the possiblity of 2024 having multiple retired names, here's what I think:

Debby's damage estimate went up recently, past Sally's amount due to its destruction in Canada as a Post-Tropical Cyclone. Should Debby not be retired, it will become the new costliest Atlantic Tropical Cyclone on record.

Beryl made a devastating high-end Category 4 landfall in Grenda back in early July. It also struck the Yucatan Penicula and Texas.

Helene struck the Big Bend region of Florida a month as Debby did so as a mid-end Category 4. It was the strongest Big Bend region landfall on record. The real damage from Helene was dealt inland in places like North Carolina and the Applachin mountains. Helene is also as of current estimates the second costliest Tropical Cyclone on record, surpassing Ian from 2022 (was former second costliest before Helene) Helene is the most likely of the bunch to be retired and I will shocked if it isn't.

Milton caused a statewide record-breaking tornado outbreak on its' approach to its' landfall just south of Tampa, Florida. The tornado outbreak caused alot of damage and I would say its' chances of retirement is up in the air.

Sara dropped tons of rain in Central America and like caused a bunch of deaths so I wouldn't be surprised to Sandy's name replacement (Sara replaced Sandy in the spring of 2013 after the Hurricane Commitee retired Sandy) go as well.



All in all what I think is this;

Beryl, Debby, Helene, Milton and Sara will likely be retired. Helene is most likely of the five.
Milton, Beryl, and Helene are locks to me, and they absolutely should be retired. I believe Debby should be retired too for its impact in Canada, it was quite nasty up there. My aunt lives on a farm near the big bend of Florida, and I talked to her about the worst one for her this year, and surprisingly she said Debby was the most destructive for her farm, due to the nasty flooding.

I don’t think Sara will be retired, but there’s a chance. It did cause really nasty flooding as well, and it killed more people than Debby did.
 
Milton, Beryl, and Helene are locks to me, and they absolutely should be retired. I believe Debby should be retired too for its impact in Canada, it was quite nasty up there. My aunt lives on a farm near the big bend of Florida, and I talked to her about the worst one for her this year, and surprisingly she said Debby was the most destructive for her farm, due to the nasty flooding.

I don’t think Sara will be retired, but there’s a chance. It did cause really nasty flooding as well, and it killed more people than Debby did.
IDK I can't see debbie being retired
 
An interesting feature is forming the NATL right now which appears to possibly have potential to become a SS in the next day or two.
 

Attachments

  • Screenshot 2024-12-18 3.19.52 PM.png
    Screenshot 2024-12-18 3.19.52 PM.png
    701.5 KB · Views: 0
  • Screenshot 2024-12-18 3.20.08 PM.png
    Screenshot 2024-12-18 3.20.08 PM.png
    591.6 KB · Views: 0
  • Screenshot 2024-12-18 3.20.25 PM.png
    Screenshot 2024-12-18 3.20.25 PM.png
    679.9 KB · Views: 0
  • Screenshot 2024-12-18 3.20.43 PM.png
    Screenshot 2024-12-18 3.20.43 PM.png
    694.6 KB · Views: 0
  • Screenshot 2024-12-18 3.20.50 PM.png
    Screenshot 2024-12-18 3.20.50 PM.png
    678.9 KB · Views: 0
  • Screenshot 2024-12-18 3.21.26 PM.png
    Screenshot 2024-12-18 3.21.26 PM.png
    631.9 KB · Views: 0
  • Screenshot 2024-12-18 3.21.34 PM.png
    Screenshot 2024-12-18 3.21.34 PM.png
    686.4 KB · Views: 0
  • Screenshot 2024-12-18 3.21.49 PM.png
    Screenshot 2024-12-18 3.21.49 PM.png
    498.3 KB · Views: 0
Here is the phase diagram for this upcoming system:

Screenshot 2024-12-18 3.24.56 PM.png
 
Here is the ECENS model on Weathernerds:

62810818.gif

And the GFS simulated satelitte:
Screenshot 2024-12-18 3.33.34 PM.png
 
A current view to close things out (I will be gone for a bit today)

Screenshot 2024-12-18 3.42.35 PM.png
 
Well I came across something interesting to do with the non-frontal low from December 21.

This is Tropical Storm Debby 1994 (Peak of 45 mph)
IMG_1854.png


Now look at the non-frontal low from about a week and a half ago as of now;

IMG_1855.jpeg
The low’s convection is a little weaker but it looks similar to Debby 1994 above.



Maybe this non-frontal low will be classified, maybe not; we will see.
 
Well I came across something interesting to do with the non-frontal low from December 21.

This is Tropical Storm Debby 1994 (Peak of 45 mph)
View attachment 32443


Now look at the non-frontal low from about a week and a half ago as of now;

View attachment 32444
The low’s convection is a little weaker but it looks similar to Debby 1994 above.



Maybe this non-frontal low will be classified, maybe not; we will see.
Even the non-frontal low had a better defined center of circulation!
 
Even the non-frontal low had a better defined center of circulation!
ChatGPT predicts the replacement names (announced on Wednesday)
Thoughts?


4o:

Retired NameReplacementReason
BerylBrielleOn-trend, safe, feminine
HeleneHaylaSoft, unique, distinct from Hanna
MiltonMalikDEI-core, punchy, no conflict
DebbyDaraShort, clean, pan-ethnic
RafaelRayenIndigenous-rooted, distinct
John (EPAC)JairoSpanish-rooted, not in other basins


o3-mini-high:

TL;DR Final Predictions:


Beryl becomes Brielle

Helene becomes Helia

Milton becomes Malik

Debby becomes Demi

Rafael becomes Roberto

(EPAC) John becomes Jairo


----

Atlantic Basin Replacements

1. Beryl → Brielle

Why?

Brielle fits the modern trend: soft, feminine, and clearly different from the old‐fashioned “Beryl.” It’s vowel‐rich, flows well in multiple languages, and fits the current push for fresh, contemporary names.

2. Helene → Helia

Why?

Helia retains the “H” start and the melodic quality of Helene but drops the heavy, nasal European feel. It’s distinct enough from “Hanna” and other similar names already in use while remaining internationally pronounceable—think “solar” and light, which contrasts with the catastrophic legacy of Helene.

3. Milton → Malik

Why?

Malik is an unequivocal DEI-tier name. It’s short, punchy, and has an Arabic/Swahili flavor that WMO has been embracing lately. It’s a modern, assertive replacement that marks a departure from the stale, old-school Milton.

4. Debby → Demi

Why?

Debby is painfully dated. Demi is a modern, sleek alternative that’s short, memorable, and aligns with the trend toward names that sound like they belong on a social-media–savvy generation’s radar. It’s soft enough to be easily pronounced yet distinct enough to replace a name that’s long past its prime.

5. Rafael → Roberto

Why?

Roberto offers a classic, solid sound that fits the current trend: strong, yet smooth, and entirely in line with the Hispanic, Catholic, and Iberian aesthetic favored in the region. It has a robust international flavor that won’t get tripped up in translation.


Eastern Pacific Replacement

John → Jairo

Why?

Jairo is a Spanish-rooted, phonetically clear name that fits well into EPAC’s modern naming style. It’s distinct, easy to pronounce, and already has a precedent in the region. It’s a perfect example of how WMO is rebranding names to be more inclusive and reflective of the affected regions.
 
Last edited:
ChatGPT predicts the replacement names (announced on Wednesday)
Thoughts?


4o:

Retired NameReplacementReason
BerylBrielleOn-trend, safe, feminine
HeleneHaylaSoft, unique, distinct from Hanna
MiltonMalikDEI-core, punchy, no conflict
DebbyDaraShort, clean, pan-ethnic
RafaelRayenIndigenous-rooted, distinct
John (EPAC)JairoSpanish-rooted, not in other basins


o3-mini-high:

TL;DR Final Predictions:


Beryl becomes Brielle

Helene becomes Helia

Milton becomes Malik

Debby becomes Demi

Rafael becomes Roberto

(EPAC) John becomes Jairo


----

Atlantic Basin Replacements

1. Beryl → Brielle

Why?

Brielle fits the modern trend: soft, feminine, and clearly different from the old‐fashioned “Beryl.” It’s vowel‐rich, flows well in multiple languages, and fits the current push for fresh, contemporary names.

2. Helene → Helia

Why?

Helia retains the “H” start and the melodic quality of Helene but drops the heavy, nasal European feel. It’s distinct enough from “Hanna” and other similar names already in use while remaining internationally pronounceable—think “solar” and light, which contrasts with the catastrophic legacy of Helene.

3. Milton → Malik

Why?

Malik is an unequivocal DEI-tier name. It’s short, punchy, and has an Arabic/Swahili flavor that WMO has been embracing lately. It’s a modern, assertive replacement that marks a departure from the stale, old-school Milton.

4. Debby → Demi

Why?

Debby is painfully dated. Demi is a modern, sleek alternative that’s short, memorable, and aligns with the trend toward names that sound like they belong on a social-media–savvy generation’s radar. It’s soft enough to be easily pronounced yet distinct enough to replace a name that’s long past its prime.

5. Rafael → Roberto

Why?

Roberto offers a classic, solid sound that fits the current trend: strong, yet smooth, and entirely in line with the Hispanic, Catholic, and Iberian aesthetic favored in the region. It has a robust international flavor that won’t get tripped up in translation.


Eastern Pacific Replacement

John → Jairo

Why?

Jairo is a Spanish-rooted, phonetically clear name that fits well into EPAC’s modern naming style. It’s distinct, easy to pronounce, and already has a precedent in the region. It’s a perfect example of how WMO is rebranding names to be more inclusive and reflective of the affected regions.
@Atlantic @Wazim Khan



The Evolution of Atlantic Hurricane Naming

1950s–1970s (The Old Lady Era):

Storms were given simple, Anglo names—practical, familiar, and straight from the military meteorological playbook. Names reflected a conservative aesthetic, with little thought to global diversity.

1980s–1990s (Gender Integration & Latin Invasion):

With increasing global influence, male names were added and Latin, Spanish‐coded names started creeping in. Hurricanes like Hugo sparked debate, and regional representation began to matter as more Caribbean and Latin American voices joined the naming process.

2000s–2010s (Multiculturalism & Media Branding):

As media coverage and international impacts grew, names took on a cultural weight. Names like Gonzalo, Humberto, Isaias, and Dorian began to reflect the growing influence of diverse cultures. Storm names became part of the global conversation, sometimes even becoming viral memes.

2020s–Now (Full DEI Era):

The naming system has been overhauled by DEI pressures. Supplementary lists now feature names that sound like they were chosen by a social-media-savvy, globalized committee—names like Deshawn, Tayshaun, Imani, and Braylen are becoming the norm. This era prioritizes inclusivity and cultural representation, even if it means replacing traditional names with ones that may be meme-worthy or challenging for legacy audiences.





Retirement Predictions & Replacement Names



Based on current WMO trends (post-2021), our predictions for Atlantic retirements are:

Beryl:

With catastrophic impacts and extreme damage (a Category 5 early storm), Beryl is a shoo-in for retirement.

Predicted Replacement: Brielle – a modern, vowel-rich, Gen Z-friendly name.

Helene:

An apocalyptic storm causing massive devastation (with billions in damage and hundreds of deaths) will see Helene retired without question.

Predicted Replacement: We debated options—names like Hailey, Hania, or even Hayla came up. Given naming trends that favor phonetic clarity and DEI alignment, a strong candidate might be a name that sounds fresh but isn’t too similar to active names like Hanna. (Our final pick here leaned toward something like “Hailey” or a variation, but the debate remains.)

Milton:

A devastating Category 5 that almost delivered a catastrophic blow to Florida is destined for retirement.

Predicted Replacement: Malik – a short, punchy, DEI-tier name that fits the modern trend.

Debby:

While Debby’s damage in Canada (and along the US coast) is significant—making it one of the costliest extratropical events in Canadian history—there’s some debate. Retirement is highly likely if Canada pushes for it.

Predicted Replacement: Options like Dara, Delya, or even Demi were considered. We leaned toward a short, non-dated name like “Dara”.

Rafael:

This one is more of a wildcard—significant damage in Cuba might push it over the edge, though the death toll is low.

Predicted Replacement: Rayen or Roberto were discussed, with Rayen fitting the modern, soft yet distinct trend.



For the Eastern Pacific, we predicted John would be retired and replaced by Jairo—a name that’s culturally and phonetically more in line with the modern, Spanish-influenced style preferred there.
 
Where did you find that? I thought they announced the retired names at the end of the committee.
(announced on Wednesday) - IdaliaHelene
 
Back
Top