2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Taylor Campbell]

The chances for a nasty tropical situation about to unfold seems pretty high.

 

[JPWX]

The chances for a nasty tropical situation about to unfold seems pretty high.

Yep. I would be very worrisome for something getting into the Caribbean and especially Gulf going forward. SST and OHC (Oceanic Heat Content) both remain well above normal in both areas.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Yep. I would be very worrisome for something getting into the Caribbean and especially Gulf going forward. SST and OHC (Oceanic Heat Content) both remain well above normal in both areas.

Wind shear is low into the Carribean as well.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Wowzers!

 

[slenker]

Wowzers!

View attachment 29715

This season is about to get very interesting.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

Holy (expletive). The tropical light switch has flipped.

GFS is a sphincter clincher and simulates a monster. Euro takes it West into the Yucatan.

 

[JPWX]

00z/12z Euro Ensemble tracks, 12z GFS and Euro Operational, and the 12z GFS, Canadian, Euro Ensembles all suggest a significant tropical system in the Gulf around the 8th thru 15th timeframe.

 

[Clancy]

X city in the Atlantic. The one in the central northern Atlantic is the one to watch for now.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

 

[JPWX]

However let's remember the last time we had 2 tropical systems in August was 2018. We had Florence, Gordon, and Helene in September then big Michael in October. I grow tired of seeing all this "Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency" just because nothing has happened since Ernesto. People obviously don't remember we can still get category 4 and 5 plus impactful hurricanes in October and November. It's like tornado season. Nothing big happens. Everyone shouts Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency before we get into the heart of the tornado season then something big happens.

 

[JPWX]

And yes I Atmospheric Anti-Climax my totals this season. I went too aggressive but it was solely based on what I've learned over the years. Obviously we still have so much to learn. But I'll be even more foolish if I just sat back and said nothing else will happen the rest of the season.

 

[Clancy]

And yes I Atmospheric Anti-Climax my totals this season. I went too aggressive but it was solely based on what I've learned over the years. Obviously we still have so much to learn. But I'll be even more foolish if I just sat back and said nothing else will happen the rest of the season.

Yeah, I'm seeing a lot of the boomerang effect on Twitter, even from proper mets, regarding seasonal potential. One thing I do agree with is that official outlets should probably not go so hard on actual specific numerical forecasts for hurricane seasons, because it just sets us up for failure regarding public communications.

 

[JPWX]

Which brings up a question if we should start doing or looking into probabilistic Hurricane forecasting instead of the whole total numbers. I personally might look into doing that next year. Just food for thought

 

[Clancy]

Which brings up a question if we should start doing or looking into probabilistic Hurricane forecasting instead of the whole total numbers. I personally might look into doing that next year. Just food for thought

The sentiment I saw from a few folks was just generally doing an "active, average, underactive" scheme, and also avoiding hyperactivity descriptors.

 

[JPWX]

By the way, the Western Pacific has also been very inactive this year. Only 3 major typhoons thus far and their ACE is just 65.2 (normal at this time is 140). Also it took nearly 260 days for the Western Pacific ACE to even achieve a total ACE of 53.1 and nearly that time to surpass the Atlantic total ACE. That has never happened before in the satellite era.

 

[slenker]

It's just very difficult to forecast an entire hurricane season - so many things can change in the middle of the season that drastically affects the outcome. Too many people are yelling "Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency" right now - the entire Atlantic is still extremely warm - the quantitative amount of storms may not hit what we thought it would, but there's still high potential for many storms to be very intense. I wouldn't be surprised to see a low number of total storms but a high number of those storms being particularly strong.

 

[Clancy]

This system in the Caribbean Sea will remain the one to watch most closely for the next while, though hopefully it won't develop further.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

The model I'm paying most attention to right now is the ICON. It performed well last year and performed well for Beryl. It has been persistent with developing low near Bay of Campeche in the GOM for the last 4 days. It develops a low every single run near the same spot.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

Holy 18z HRRR