2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Sawmaster]

Invest 98l now so more storm details should be coming soon.

 

[wx_guy]

The models are heavily wanting it to turn out to sea at the moment, but I still think it's too early to conclude that (as many on X are doing). It looks likely, but not guaranteed. And the East Coast (especially the northern East Coast) has been very lucky in recent years, so that's a consideration if it doesn't quite make the full turn out to sea.

 

[Clancy]

AL98 now has 80% chance of development.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles (AL98):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday in
association with a tropical wave located roughly midway between the
Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Gradual development of
this system is possible during the next couple of days while it
moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical
Atlantic. Afterwards, conditions are expected to become more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by the early to middle part of next week while the system
approaches and then moves near or over the Lesser Antilles. The
system is forecast to continue moving generally west-northwestward
and could approach portions of the Greater Antilles by the middle to
latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.


Forecaster Reinhart

 

[JPWX]

I have a spreadsheet on this. This honestly surprised me because all you hear about is how La Nina is the big driver for big Atlantic seasons.

Tropical Impacts By County (1851-2022) within 60 miles radius.

Baldwin County, Alabama (112), Bay County, Florida (114), Escambia County, Florida (110), Franklin County, Florida (111), Harris County, Texas (77), Harrison County, Mississippi (103), Jefferson County, Texas (88), Miami-Dade County, Florida (132), Mobile County, Alabama (112), Orleans Parish, Louisiana (102), Cameron Parish, Louisiana (90), Galveston County, Texas (92), Nueces County, Texas (60), and Hillsborough County, Florida (126).

Tropical Impacts at these 14 locations. During La Nina, total of 239 (17.07%) impacts, but during Neutral ENSO, Tropical Impact total is 286 (20.42%). Just something to consider especially if we fail to officially go into La Nina by heart of hurricane season.

August 8th, 2024 ENSO Discussion: ENSO-neutral is expected to continue for the next several months, with La Niña favored to emerge during September-November (66% chance) and persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (74% chance during November-January).

August 13th, 2020 ENSO Discussion: There is a ~60% chance of La Niña development during Northern Hemisphere fall 2020 and continuing through winter 2020-21 (~55% chance). We were in Neutral ENSO as well.

August 10th, 2017 ENSO Discussion: ENSO-neutral is favored (~85% chance during Jul-Sep, decreasing to ~55% during DecFeb) through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18.

August 7th, 2008 ENSO Discussion: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the end of 2008.

August 11th, 2005 ENSO Discussion: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected during the next 3-6 months.

It's very interesting how the big Atlantic impact years and most active seasons since 2000 have been Neutral ENSO.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

People over estimate the effects of Sal, as it’s present all season long. Sal is simply a continues plume of dust that creates an elevated mixed layer effect, or cap.

It can be a hindrance to convection trying to initiate but it has no impact on already established tropical waves.

It’s the amount of precipitable water/ mid level relative humidity that matters, and there’s quite a lot of it and will only increase from here.
View attachment 29613

I mean I agree with most of what you are saying....but it has been a huge hindrance this season and I don't think it's overhyped.

I know Beryl was record breaking, but other than that this season is below average to this point. We air halfway through August haven't even made it the "E" storm yet.

 

[notsoencrypted]

It's only August 11, and E-named storms in the latter half of August into early September are pretty common, at least over the last 15 years.

 

[Clancy]

Modelling is fairly intent on taking what may become Ernesto out to sea, but I'm not sure I buy that as a surefire solution. Wouldn't be surprised to see a westward shift in some of these tracks over the next several days.

 

[JPWX]

The longer it takes to develop and/or intensify, the further west it'll get. You saw that happen with both Beryl and Debby. Both were initially forecast to head out to sea or go up the East Coast. Plus any interaction with the Caribbean Islands it has down the road, that'll keep the intensity at bay.

 

[Clancy]

PTC 5 has been designated by the NHC.

 

[jiharris0220]

I mean I agree with most of what you are saying....but it has been a huge hindrance this season and I don't think it's overhyped.

I know Beryl was record breaking, but other than that this season is below average to this point. We air halfway through August haven't even made it the "E" storm yet.

4 named storms 2 hurricanes and a major along with 40+ ace before mid August is by no stretch of the imagination “below average”.

This isn’t like 2020 with a bunch of slop storms that would’ve never been named 20 years ago. Literally only 4 seasons are ahead of this one in terms of ace as of now.

Sal hasn’t been a “huge hindrance” at all otherwise this wouldn’t be the case, and this is despite it being above average this year as well, which comes back to my point that Sal only affects the ability of convection to pop up.

It has no bearing on already established tropical waves, you’re getting Sal confused with dry air, which are NOT the same thing.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

PTC 5 seems to be struggling to consolidate longer than expected...perhaps moving too fast for its own good. Didn't we see this with at least one system last year or in 2022?

 

[jiharris0220]

PTC 5 seems to be struggling to consolidate longer than expected...perhaps moving too fast for its own good. Didn't we see this with at least one system last year or in 2022?

Not really? Seems to be on track per NHC, it already has close to TS force winds and simply needs a well defined center to be classified.

Which should happen by tomorrow 8am, if not, then yes it would be a small under performance.

 

[Clancy]

To-be Ernesto could be quite an issue for Bermuda if he tracks as currently forecasted.

 

[JPWX]

I'm not convinced this is going out to sea or Bermuda. You might think I'm crazy, but I believe this is getting further west putting the Bahamas and Florida in the cone of uncertainty. Looks like this is Tropical Storm Ernesto now according to TropicalTidbits.

 

[JBishopwx]

Officially have Ernesto

 

[wx_guy]

Intriguing that the models are keeping the rest of August pretty quiet...

 

[JPWX]

With the MJO in favorable phases (8,1,2, and 3), it's only a matter of time before the Atlantic really wakes up. However, one thing that most people don't realize is that even with the lack of the Atlantic bursting forth with tropical activity, those water temperatures are going up, up, up. The biggest hindering factor that has not been supportive thus far is the warmth across the North Atlantic. You need a cooler North Atlantic in order for more convergence across the MDR, etc. The North Atlantic should begin to cool during the next few weeks. Besides, the fact is August 15th onward is really the TRUE start of the hurricane season.

 

[JPWX]

The 00z Euro Ensemble and Euro Ensemble Control all show uptick in activity late month. Above normal precipitation anomalies is usually what I tend to focus on first when looking at the ensembles. I've found that to be very useful as it provides helpful hints as to a area/region where a system may go or may form in.

 

[JPWX]

12z Euro Ensemble and precipitation anomalies thru end of month.

ACE Totals as of today:

Atlantic: 47.4 (1991-2020 Climatological Average is 15.3)
East Pacific: 15.6 (1991-2020 Climatological Average is 60.4)
West Pacific: 40.6 (1991-2020 Climatological Average is 99.3)

Biggest ACE producing storm in Atlantic thus far has been Beryl at 35.1
None of the East Pacific tropical systems have produced a total ACE of 10 or higher
Only 2 out of the 6 tropical systems in the Western Pacific have produced a total ACE of 10 or higher. Highest ACE producing storm thus far in the basin was Typhoon Gaemi.
One hurricane (Beryl) caused the Atlantic ACE to skyrocket. The East Pacific has had one hurricane and the West Pacific has had 4 typhoons. Both basins remain well below average for ACE. I just find this absolutely incredible!

BTW, I hope to see the day when we start flying recon again into Western Pacific typhoons. We are missing out on a data gold mine over there! You want to make forecast models better. Well, that's the key.

 

[jiharris0220]

Unfortunately 2 more fatalities added to the death toll this year, two drownings in South Carolina caused by rip currents from Ernesto, which made LANDFALL in Bermuda last night.

Officials: 2 men dead following separate drownings on Hilton Head Island

First responders confirm two people died Friday in drownings that were just hours apart.

www.wjcl.com

So far, not a single system has been a non lethal fish storm, and according to the models, the next time for development is around Aug 27th, with extensive ridging in place at the east coast.