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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Blountwolf said:
I believe this one's potential is being underestimated.
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Intensity is the great blind spot in current tropical cyclone modeling, particularly RI and RW. This one has all the boxes checked for RI...I too have a feeling it'll over perform. Even if not intensity-wise, the rain and flooding it puts out my break the record books by itself.
 
Wonder if they'll make the move to Debby at the next advisory. It's close, I feel.
 
Even though models aren't showing much activity (no shock there) in the Atlantic during the next few weeks, the MJO, time of year, and pattern recognition all suggest additional tropical threats coming up for the Atlantic.
 
This guy is just one of many examples on twitter that leads to public mistrust in meteorologists, to say nothing of his use of the word “unfortunate”.
This sight really use to be really valuable, and while there’s plenty of credible people that actually care it’s sad to see stuff like this.
 
jiharris0220 said:
This guy is just one of many examples on twitter that leads to public mistrust in meteorologists, to say nothing of his use of the word “unfortunate”.
This sight really use to be really valuable, and while there’s plenty of credible people that actually care it’s sad to see stuff like this.
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Insert facepalm. Don't you just love it when the first thing you see is it's either going out to sea or up the East Coast before it even develops.
 
jiharris0220 said:
This guy is just one of many examples on twitter that leads to public mistrust in meteorologists, to say nothing of his use of the word “unfortunate”.
This sight really use to be really valuable, and while there’s plenty of credible people that actually care it’s sad to see stuff like this.
Click to expand...

IIRC, the models have yet-to-be-Debby going out to sea at this point in its lifespan, also...so yeah...
 
People over estimate the effects of Sal, as it’s present all season long. Sal is simply a continues plume of dust that creates an elevated mixed layer effect, or cap.

It can be a hindrance to convection trying to initiate but it has no impact on already established tropical waves.

It’s the amount of precipitable water/ mid level relative humidity that matters, and there’s quite a lot of it and will only increase from here.
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Here’s proof of point using GFS model soundings on tropical tidbits.
The left picture is a sounding right off of Africa same latitude as the Cape Verdes, clearly showing a Sal induced EML.
The right picture is a sounding below the previous off the Gulf of Guinea in the ITCZ, where tropical waves are already established, the effects of Sal are non existent.
1723224241298.png1723224384612.png
 
NHC closely watching the Atlantic disturbance. Obviously, the track evokes some concerns for tropics-watchers, though way too early to know where it'll go if it does develop.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Debby, located inland over the northeastern United States.

1. Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located well
to the west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands over the tropical
Atlantic is associated with a tropical wave. Any development of the
wave should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while it
moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical
Atlantic. Conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by
early next week while the system approaches and then moves near or
over the Lesser Antilles. The system is forecast to continue moving
generally west-northwestward and could approach portions of the
Greater Antilles by the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
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1723228517280.png
 
The dry air has been a bit overhyped too much this season for some reason and you can say the same thing with wind shear too. Yeah, it's been there, but it hasn't led to a dearth of tropical activity. If you want to find the main reason why the majority of July was inactive, it's because we weren't in a favorable MJO phase. Besides, July is normally not that active anyways.
 
And on top of that, what is astounding to me is the Atlantic (40.7) still outpaces both the ACE total in the Eastern Pacific (15.6) and Western Pacific (27.7). This has never happened before by the way on modern records (going back to 1981)
 
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