2022 Tropical Weather

[bjdeming]

I know this guy from Twitter and he has a MASSIVE WPAC bias. He often times criticizes the NHC and frankly, he has no idea what he is talking about.

Those are the folks it's always fun to answer with facts.

Some of the replies were good, though I don't get the connection with Julia 2016 and Arthur 2008. Wondered what part of Australia is (presumably) a south central Florida style wetland, too.

Nature is so messy compared to textbooks. Sounds to me like Colin was one of those complexities the textbook writers save for grad students.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The East Pacific remains highly active and the dominate basin for tropical activity.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The NHC has outlined an area of interest in the northern Gulf for potential homegrown development.

 

[warneagle]

Darby is fascinating. A rapidly-intensifying major hurricane but the hurricane-force winds only extend out about 10 miles from the center.

 

[OHWX97]

Picturesque is the word to describe Darby right now. Exceptional symmetry, stadium-effect eye, and no land in sight!

Darby is fascinating. A rapidly-intensifying major hurricane but the hurricane-force winds only extend out about 10 miles from the center.

Tiny tropical cyclones are very easily able to accomplish impressive feats of intensification if presented with a favorable environment. Darby was a tropical storm this time yesterday. Now, it's on the verge of becoming a category 4. It likely wouldn't have gotten so strong if it wasn't so small and compact.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Hurricane Darby continues to overachieve intensity compared to the NHC’s initial forecast.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Models show future Estelle in the Pacific to be a behemoth.

 

[SouthFLwx]

Models show future Estelle in the Pacific to be a behemoth.

I do know that AOI has some strong model support, although from what I have seen so far, it’s nothing overwhelming.

 

[bjdeming]

Hurricane Darby continues to overachieve intensity compared to the NHC’s initial forecast.

Just saw this:

 

[Taylor Campbell]

We now have tropical storm Estelle in the east Pacific. It should quickly become a hurricane. I think this will make a good run for major.

 

[SouthFLwx]

We now have tropical storm Estelle in the east Pacific. It should quickly become a hurricane. I think this will make a good run for major.

It could make a run for major hurricane strength, but there is some shear that might keep it’s intensity in check.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Northerly shear has kept Estelle from becoming anything major and its future looks to remain below major status.

 

[MattW]

So what's the meteorological reasoning behind the quiet Atlantic year so far? I feel like normally when things are this quiet, there are headlines about "Saharan Air Layer" or other things, but I haven't seen anything so far.

 

[SouthFLwx]

So what's the meteorological reasoning behind the quiet Atlantic year so far? I feel like normally when things are this quiet, there are headlines about "Saharan Air Layer" or other things, but I haven't seen anything so far.

There is a massive SAL outbreak right now (which is normal) and considering the fact that July is normally one of the most quieter months of the season, activity shouldn’t really ramp up until mid-late August.

 

[bjdeming]

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The tropical wave activity in the eastern Atlantic looks to be grounds for development in the extended in the eastern Pacific as that area continues to be very active. Tropical storm Georgette and Frank are currently out there causing stormy seas.

 

[JayF]

It has been quiet so far, but we are entering the timeframe of when the storms really start showing up. Hope everyone is doing well. While we cannot control when and where these storms go, we can help educate people, help spread information and give back to the communities affected.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Check out this strong thunderstorm complex over Western Africa. This activity has been making some noise in the extended on the GFS\CFS models.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Check out this strong thunderstorm complex over Western Africa. This activity has been making some noise in the extended on the GFS\CFS models.

The last few GFS runs are showing further development of this disturbance in the eastern Atlantic in the four day range (like there could be a name for it by Tuesday/Wednesday).

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The EURO and its ensembles are also picking up on this disturbance organizing into a tropical system.