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2022 Tropical Weather

JayF

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Taylor Campbell

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Are we going to have an invest soon? GOES satellite shows a counter-clockwise wind drift in the low to mid levels.

3EA95E7C-4B66-4BA1-B5AB-DDD5F4743AF9.gif
 

Taylor Campbell

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The NHC has scheduled a mission to sample the environment tomorrow. EURO is the fastest with development and forward motion through the short term.
 

bjdeming

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Down to two at the moment, but one is moderate and the other high probability. :)

Meanwhile, I saw this tweet, tried to visit the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to check it out, and got the message that site might be swamped with traffic.

Anyone know more about this?

 

Sawmaster

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Down to two at the moment, but one is moderate and the other high probability. :)

Meanwhile, I saw this tweet, tried to visit the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to check it out, and got the message that site might be swamped with traffic.

Anyone know more about this?


JTWC is up for me right now

Phil
 

bjdeming

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JTWC is up for me right now

Phil
Thanks. On further look, it's probably my equipment, or rather, some issues related to a stalking problem I've got at the moment.

I just was surprised by the intensity of this typhoon and didn't stop to think that vital Navy websites don't collapse that way :) .

Did find another useful tracking site, though (in English): https://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/RSMC_HP.htm

A recent NHK news story, too: https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20220830_07/
 

Taylor Campbell

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Lots of model support for areas to watch in the eastern Atlantic. May see some of the tropical entities get further west the week of the 19th.
 

TH2002

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The center of Hurricane Kay is expected to pass just off the SoCal coast beginning Friday, bringing widespread rain (exactly what we need after this brutal heat wave! Possibly an inch of rain here but higher totals in the San Diego mountains), tropical storm force wind gusts (essentially set up like a Santa Ana wind event, but the low pressure area being that of a tropical storm) and an elevated risk for lightning and thunderstorms. Keeping my eyes peeled for that elusive Southern California tornado! Of course there is the possibility that Kay will fall apart too soon like Nora did last year, but the SST's are well above average, much more conducive than usual to maintain a tropical cyclone, and only the end of the week will tell. Also curious to see if the TROP STM warnings will extend to the SoCal coast.
hurricane-kay.JPG
 

TH2002

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With Tropical Storm Kay's approach I have to say this is the first time I've seen any sort of tornado probabilities placed so close to where I live! Looking like most of the action will stay off to my south and southeast, and I would totally go storm chasing if my truck didn't have a faulty fuel filter... oh well, will have to see what I can catch from in and around my area.
day2probotlk_1730_torn.gif
 

Taylor Campbell

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The tropical wave at 10N/35W is something that modeling shows could make it a large amount westward across the Atlantic and as a feature to watch for further development.
 

Taylor Campbell

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The tropical wave at 10N/35W is something that modeling shows could make it a large amount westward across the Atlantic and as a feature to watch for further development.

A lot of thunderstorm activity with this area of interest tonight. The northern Leeward islands could see a healthier system nearby this weekend.
 

bjdeming

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Meanwhile, in Alaska (it's from typhoon remnants, so I'm putting this here, as we twiddle our thumbs waiting, waiting, waiting for the Atlantic to quit serving fish...):

155%20flood.png


Text accompanying image

Satellite:

ir_loop.gif
 
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