I know it's the happy hour GFS but it probably shouldn't be hitting the sauce that hard on a Monday. Gotta pace yourself dude, there's a whole week ahead of you.
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf• The RMM index and upper-level velocity potential anomaly analyses indicate a weak MJO.
• Widespread agreement among forecast models of an increase in MJO activity in the coming weeks.
• TC activity in the Atlantic basin has increased, and some activity in the Main Development Region remains a possibility as we move into early October.
A trough of low pressure located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
The trough is forecast to move northward over the southwestern
Atlantic by Sunday, where a broad area of low pressure is expected
to form north of Hispaniola. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be conducive for gradual development, and a subtropical or
tropical depression could form during the early part of next week
while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over
the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless of development, there is an
increasing risk of coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy
rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the
southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and
portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during the early
to middle part of next week. The disturbance is also expected to
bring locally heavy rainfall to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands
this weekend. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
98L is officially up.80/90 probs.
1. Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located more than 300 miles north of Puerto
Rico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move generally
northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic where environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a
subtropical or tropical storm is likely to form in the next day or
so. The system is then forecast to turn westward or
west-southwestward over the southwestern Atlantic by the middle
part of this week where additional development is possible.
Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of coastal
flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf,
and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States
coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and
northwestern Bahamas beginning in the early to middle part of this
week. Interests in those areas should continue to monitor the
progress of this system as tropical storm, hurricane, and storm
surge watches could be required for a portion of these areas by
early Monday. Additional information on this system, including
gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service and in products from your local weather