2022 Tropical Weather

[Taylor Campbell]

A discussion thread for the 2022 tropical weather season.

 

[SouthFLwx]

As kind of an “icebreaker” for this new thread, how about we go around and post our predictions for this year’s hurricane season?

 

[JPWX]

Here's my outlook.

Total Storms: 14 to 26

Hurricanes: 6 to 13

Major Hurricanes: 4 to 9

 

[SouthFLwx]

Here's my outlook.

Total Storms: 14 to 26

Hurricanes: 6 to 13

Major Hurricanes: 4 to 9

Good forecast, would you mind telling me your ACE predictions as well?

 

[JPWX]

I honestly don't get into ACE forecasting/predictions.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

La Nina is favored to continue through the season.

 

[SouthFLwx]

Yeah, that should definitely help things out in the Atlantic. Especially in October and November if it sticks around long enough.

 

[JBishopwx]

Both GFS and EURO want to develop at least a subtropical storm off the SE coast by early next week

 

[SouthFLwx]

Both GFS and EURO want to develop at least a subtropical storm off the SE coast by early next week

I saw that too, wonder if the NHC will mark it soon.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Models depict a strong and fast eastward moving Kelvin wave from the Indian Ocean to Africa over the next two weeks. This increases chances of tropical cyclone formation in the time period. The GFS has been showing development in the east Pacific first and then near the the Yucatán Peninsula/ Caribbean Sea.

 

[JBishopwx]

Just a reminder that the Tropical Weather Outlooks will start being issued Sunday morning.

 

[JPWX]

The 12z GFS wind gusts swath and the 18z GFS output. Now granted the GFS may be off it's rocker with the central pressure/intensity, but the idea of another early season May tropical development is increasing. Looking back at past hurricane years, the only known hurricane which was a reanalysis done by Michael Chenoweth and Cary Mock back in 2013 was Hurricane "Amanda" in 1863. Made landfall in the Florida panhandle. This is the only hurricane to form in the Gulf and make landfall on the Gulf Coast in the month of May.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

There have been May hurricanes, but I don’t know of any majors.

The 18z GFS develops this to 950mb in the central Gulf on May 26th.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The GFS remaining consistent on development. Look for surface pressures to start falling on Thursday in the southern Caribbean sea and transfer towards off the coast of Belize. There are a few other models showing more consolidated surface pressure there come next weekend.

 

[Weatherphreak]

Hasn't this feature been pretty consistent on the GFS? Its still showing up making landfall in Louisiana Memorial Day weekend.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The southern Caribbean sea is firing off a lot off deep convection. Wind shear looks to be relaxing in the vicinity.

The recent MJO weekly assessment bullet points that the "Kelvin wave is forecast to continue to propagate quickly across the Pacific and possibly into the western Atlantic, potentially leading to early season tropical cyclone development". (Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#publication)

 

[Weatherphreak]

James Spann mentioned this morning about the Saharan dust coming across the Atlantic and how that will suppress any tropical activity for
The next week or so.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Models are picking up on a small tropical feature in the northern gulf Sunday into Monday moving inland. An increase in rainfall and severe weather should accompany it.

 

[JBishopwx]

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

 

[JPWX]

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent View attachment 14180

Now I don't expect anything significant out of this but we've seen during the last 2 years how these 10% probabilities for low end disturbances have escalated quickly.