2022 Tropical Weather

[Weatherphreak]

Radar definitely looks like a tropical system coming ashore with a fairly defined circulation in the convection near Pensacola. Someone said it may be an active start to the season

 

[JPWX]

It does appear that we'll be ending the 7 year streak of pre-season tropical systems as we'll stay quiet going into early June across the Atlantic. Side note though the Western Pacific has had no tropical systems this month and the last time that occurred was in 2020. 2022 looks to become the 2nd most recent time if nothing develops that way before months end.

 

[JBishopwx]

NOAA release their outlook. Also created a graphic showing both the NOAA and CSU outlooks

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Looks like things are becoming largely more favorable for a east Pacific named storm within weeks end. With potential energy transfer Gulf side in the extended.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

GFS bombs out the east pacific disturbance down to 933mb. All other models show a formidable hurricane. Conditions look supportive of rapid intensification.

This system will be called Agatha.

 

[OHWX97]

Agatha has arrived. The 1pm advisory from the NHC estimated maximum sustained winds of 45 knots. Visible satellite imagery this morning/afternoon reveal a very well organized tropical storm with an eye-like feature surrounded by rotating hot towers, and I think it's quite possible Agatha will achieve hurricane intensity as early as later tonight, or early tomorrow morning. Rapid intensification is absolutely on the table given the favorable conditions and how tight the circulation is. Those in the hurricane watch along the Mexican coast should take this one very seriously and expect a strengthening hurricane making landfall on Monday.

 

[OHWX97]

Agatha is a category 1 hurricane this morning with maximum sustained winds estimated at 75 knots as of the 10AM CDT advisory from the NHC. This is a well-organized hurricane and intensification is likely to continue throughout the day and perhaps into Monday prior to the storm making landfall.

 

[bjdeming]

...Those in the hurricane watch along the Mexican coast should take this one very seriously and expect a strengthening hurricane making landfall on Monday.

It's not on the coast but based in the capital area. Still, this blog might be a good source of local information about the effects of Agatha's passage The link includes Google translation (if it works); here is the original Spanish-language link to current coverage.

Also, this (Spanish): https://mobile.twitter.com/CNPC_MX

 

[Taylor Campbell]

970mb pressure @ 90knts now.

 

[OHWX97]

 

[JBishopwx]

It's June 1st, and you know what that means..

.

 

[warneagle]

This is the first time in what, five or six years we didn't get a pre-1 June storm?

 

[WesL]

Just for historical reference lol

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula is
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and this
system is likely to become a tropical depression while it moves
northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern
Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of
southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, and Belize during the
next day or so, spreading across western Cuba, South Florida, and
the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday. Interests in the Yucatan
Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Southwestern Atlantic northeast of the Bahamas:
A weak surface trough located around 200 miles northeast of the
central Bahamas is producing disorganized shower activity as it
interacts with an upper-level trough. Surface pressures are
currently high across the area, and significant development of this
system appears unlikely as it moves generally east-northeastward
over the next several days away from the southeastern United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which
will run until November 30. Long-term averages for the number of
named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 14, 7, and 3,
respectively.

 

[WesL]

Up to 80% today.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located over the northeastern portion
of the Yucatan Peninsula continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula. Despite strong upper-level
winds, this system is likely to become a tropical depression or
tropical storm while it moves slowly northeastward over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during
the next day or two. Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys,
and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this
system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required
for some of these areas later today.

Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall are likely
across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba during
the next day or so, spreading across southern and central Florida
and the Florida Keys Friday and Friday night, and the northwestern
Bahamas on Saturday. These heavy rains could cause scattered to
numerous flash floods across South Florida and the Florida Keys.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Southwestern Atlantic:
Shower activity associated with a weak surface trough located about
200 miles east-northeast of the northwestern Bahamas has
diminished, and upper-level winds remain strong in the area.
Development of this system is not expected while it moves
northeastward at 5 to 10 mph over the southwestern Atlantic during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Beven

 

[SouthFLwx]

Up to 80% today.

View attachment 14416

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located over the northeastern portion
of the Yucatan Peninsula continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula. Despite strong upper-level
winds, this system is likely to become a tropical depression or
tropical storm while it moves slowly northeastward over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during
the next day or two. Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys,
and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this
system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required
for some of these areas later today.

Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall are likely
across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba during
the next day or so, spreading across southern and central Florida
and the Florida Keys Friday and Friday night, and the northwestern
Bahamas on Saturday. These heavy rains could cause scattered to
numerous flash floods across South Florida and the Florida Keys.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Southwestern Atlantic:
Shower activity associated with a weak surface trough located about
200 miles east-northeast of the northwestern Bahamas has
diminished, and upper-level winds remain strong in the area.
Development of this system is not expected while it moves
northeastward at 5 to 10 mph over the southwestern Atlantic during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Beven

It was at 80% yesterday, but yeah, it definitely looks interesting.

 

[JBishopwx]

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One, located near the Yucatan Peninsula, at 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC).

 

[bjdeming]

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One, located near the Yucatan Peninsula, at 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC).

How dry/wet is South Florida now?

 

[JBishopwx]

How dry/wet is South Florida now?

Potential rainfall:

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Another burst of tropical activity is coming by the end of the week in the East PAC. Development looks possible Atlantic side later in the period.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

In the East Pacific basin, Tropical Storm Blas has formed and another disturbance Invest 93E could get named. Blas is forecast to become a hurricane.

In the Caribbean, Invest 93L is an area to watch.