• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER
Logo 468x120

2022 Tropical Weather

bjdeming

Member
Sustaining Member
Messages
1,512
Reaction score
1,231
Location
Corvallis, Oregon
I know this guy from Twitter and he has a MASSIVE WPAC bias. He often times criticizes the NHC and frankly, he has no idea what he is talking about.
Those are the folks it's always fun to answer with facts.

Some of the replies were good, though I don't get the connection with Julia 2016 and Arthur 2008. Wondered what part of Australia is (presumably) a south central Florida style wetland, too.

Nature is so messy compared to textbooks. Sounds to me like Colin was one of those complexities the textbook writers save for grad students.
 
  • Thread starter
  • Moderator
  • #62

Taylor Campbell

Moderator
Moderator
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
2,102
Reaction score
2,189
Location
Wedowee, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
The East Pacific remains highly active and the dominate basin for tropical activity.
 
  • Thread starter
  • Moderator
  • #63

Taylor Campbell

Moderator
Moderator
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
2,102
Reaction score
2,189
Location
Wedowee, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
The NHC has outlined an area of interest in the northern Gulf for potential homegrown development.
 

OHWX97

Member
Messages
1,013
Reaction score
1,425
Location
Maineville, Ohio
Picturesque is the word to describe Darby right now. Exceptional symmetry, stadium-effect eye, and no land in sight!
1383fa20-aa87-4384-8259-8a541beab549_1_50.gif
Darby is fascinating. A rapidly-intensifying major hurricane but the hurricane-force winds only extend out about 10 miles from the center.
Tiny tropical cyclones are very easily able to accomplish impressive feats of intensification if presented with a favorable environment. Darby was a tropical storm this time yesterday. Now, it's on the verge of becoming a category 4. It likely wouldn't have gotten so strong if it wasn't so small and compact.
 
Last edited:
  • Thread starter
  • Moderator
  • #66

Taylor Campbell

Moderator
Moderator
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
2,102
Reaction score
2,189
Location
Wedowee, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
Hurricane Darby continues to overachieve intensity compared to the NHC’s initial forecast.
 
  • Thread starter
  • Moderator
  • #67

Taylor Campbell

Moderator
Moderator
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
2,102
Reaction score
2,189
Location
Wedowee, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
Models show future Estelle in the Pacific to be a behemoth.
 
  • Thread starter
  • Moderator
  • #70

Taylor Campbell

Moderator
Moderator
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
2,102
Reaction score
2,189
Location
Wedowee, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
We now have tropical storm Estelle in the east Pacific. It should quickly become a hurricane. I think this will make a good run for major.
 
Last edited:
  • Thread starter
  • Moderator
  • #72

Taylor Campbell

Moderator
Moderator
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
2,102
Reaction score
2,189
Location
Wedowee, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
Northerly shear has kept Estelle from becoming anything major and its future looks to remain below major status.
 

MattW

Member
Messages
307
Reaction score
206
Location
Decatur, GA
HAM Callsign
KG4GUF
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
So what's the meteorological reasoning behind the quiet Atlantic year so far? I feel like normally when things are this quiet, there are headlines about "Saharan Air Layer" or other things, but I haven't seen anything so far.
 

SouthFLwx

Member
Messages
86
Reaction score
97
Location
Boca Raton, Florida
So what's the meteorological reasoning behind the quiet Atlantic year so far? I feel like normally when things are this quiet, there are headlines about "Saharan Air Layer" or other things, but I haven't seen anything so far.
There is a massive SAL outbreak right now (which is normal) and considering the fact that July is normally one of the most quieter months of the season, activity shouldn’t really ramp up until mid-late August.
 
  • Thread starter
  • Moderator
  • #76

Taylor Campbell

Moderator
Moderator
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
2,102
Reaction score
2,189
Location
Wedowee, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
The tropical wave activity in the eastern Atlantic looks to be grounds for development in the extended in the eastern Pacific as that area continues to be very active. Tropical storm Georgette and Frank are currently out there causing stormy seas.
 
Last edited:

JayF

Technical Administrator
Staff member
Administrator
Moderator
Sustaining Member
Technical Admin
Messages
1,624
Reaction score
878
Location
Hartselle, al
HAM Callsign
KB4JCS
It has been quiet so far, but we are entering the timeframe of when the storms really start showing up. Hope everyone is doing well. While we cannot control when and where these storms go, we can help educate people, help spread information and give back to the communities affected.
 
  • Thread starter
  • Moderator
  • #78

Taylor Campbell

Moderator
Moderator
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
2,102
Reaction score
2,189
Location
Wedowee, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
Check out this strong thunderstorm complex over Western Africa. This activity has been making some noise in the extended on the GFS\CFS models.

goes16_ir_eatl.gif
 
Last edited:
  • Thread starter
  • Moderator
  • #79

Taylor Campbell

Moderator
Moderator
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
2,102
Reaction score
2,189
Location
Wedowee, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
Check out this strong thunderstorm complex over Western Africa. This activity has been making some noise in the extended on the GFS\CFS models.
The last few GFS runs are showing further development of this disturbance in the eastern Atlantic in the four day range (like there could be a name for it by Tuesday/Wednesday).
 
  • Thread starter
  • Moderator
  • #80

Taylor Campbell

Moderator
Moderator
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
2,102
Reaction score
2,189
Location
Wedowee, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
The EURO and its ensembles are also picking up on this disturbance organizing into a tropical system.
 
Back
Top