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1/6-1/7 Winter Storm Potential Thread

Blountwolf said:
OK, someone fill us in on the big picture of this system - what are the pieces on the board this time? Cold air? Check. Moisture? Check. What's the forcing mechanism - surface low? I confess, I haven't paid much attention to this threat until I went under the WSW.
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Looks like a overrunning event with a weak GoM Low to Atlantic coast runner. NC looks to be the big winner our area 0 to 3in potential for norther half of the state freezing rain/sleet/snow mix for the southern half. Just what my untrained eyes tell me.
 
tagat said:
Looks like a overrunning event with a weak GoM Low to Atlantic coast runner. NC looks to be the big winner our area 0 to 3in potential for norther half of the state freezing rain/sleet/snow mix for the southern half. Just what my untrained eyes tell me.
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Hmm... not a huge fan of overrunning events - they tend to Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency. So the trough currently in LA will be pushed south into the gulf, and the whole system rotate counterclockwise bringing down that band currently moving south through Nebraska/Missouri? Or do we expect a new band to form?
 
Blountwolf said:
Hmm... not a huge fan of overrunning events - they tend to Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency. So the trough currently in LA will be pushed south into the gulf, and the whole system rotate counterclockwise bringing down that band currently moving south through Nebraska/Missouri? Or do we expect a new band to form?
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I suspect the overunning will be more expansive northward. As that are you mentioned shifts southward it will enhance the lift as moisture is pushed northward....so probably just more filled in between the two.
 
Blountwolf said:
Hmm... not a huge fan of overrunning events - they tend to Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency. So the trough currently in LA will be pushed south into the gulf, and the whole system rotate counterclockwise bringing down that band currently moving south through Nebraska/Missouri? Or do we expect a new band to form?
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Again untrained eye but the Weak GoM low will help transport some moisture into a pretty good arctic front that will eventually make it to the GoM. Depending on the track of the low. Models have been showing something for a week but the swings have been all over the place with each model run. Now they are in more agreement and are pretty confident it could be a decent event for most of the southeast. Again NC being the big winner. Pls correct me if i am wrong from the more adept model readers.
 
The 12z Parallel NAM looks promising for all.

JQr0Wx7.png
 
12z GFS continues to show the outlandishly cold temps after the system passes that the 06z introduced. It's gonna be very cold Sun/Mon.
 
GFS is up to a foot for MBY after showing token flakes just a handful of runs ago.
This is a NW trend I can get behind.
 
Nathan was seeing very small flurries in Nashville about 2 hours ago, he's headed south though....I'm getting a little excited y'all!!
 
Lovemesomesnow said:
Blountwolf, I'm just below you on the Jeff/Walker Cty line. What are we looking like? These maps are not impressing me. I'm afraid we are looking at traces of snow. What cha say?
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I actually really like where we are - models tend to pull northwest the closer you get to the event, enough so that it's a regular joke here to fear the NW trend. But as always, it's an Alabama snow - nothing is written in stone until it's on the ground.
 
I actually kind of hope it doesn't trend too much NW this time - the Shelby county folks are so often left out of the snow that it would be great to see them get some. Here's hoping the system overperforms for all.
 
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