1/6-1/7 Winter Storm Potential Thread

[Bama Ravens]

James Spann posted a new call map. Slowly moving it south:

GFS has actually been slowly trending NW with the precip shield. But technically, his map is correct at the moment, but is very much going to be subject to change if the trend continues.

 

[Lovemesomesnow]

This is really good to hear, I am in north Jefferson County (Morris).

My son lives on Sardis Road and the oldest grandson is having a fit for inches of snow to sled in.

 

[Bama Ravens]

I actually kind of hope it doesn't trend too much NW this time - the Shelby county folks are so often left out of the snow that it would be great to see them get some. Here's hoping the system overperforms for all.

 

[Blountwolf]

My son lives on Sardis Road and the oldest grandson is having a fit for inches of snow to sled in.

Yeah, my 3 year old has never seen enough snow to remember. Hoping he gets a chance to play in some. If not where I am - have 4x4, will travel... lol.

 

[Heelfan77]

It seems alot of the model runs are trending more northwest? I really hope everyone down in Ala, Miss, Ga, Sc, and Nc can reel this one in!!!

 

[Richardjacks]

If the current trends I am seeing from the last 3 runs continue on the gfs...we may have to up the totals beyond 3" in east central Al...south of I20/east of I65. Sleet may reduce those amounts a bit, but the snow may be quite heavy and accumulate quickly. Check out the 250mb on the gfs, last 6 runs. Upper air is stronger and SW flow is more southerly vs. westerly.

 

[_melody_]

Blountwolf, I'm just below you on the Jeff/Walker Cty line. What are we looking like? These maps are not impressing me. I'm afraid we are looking at traces of snow. What cha say?

This is really good to hear, I am in north Jefferson County (Morris).

I'm in Kimberly, so right near you all. We've been staying at Smith Lake for a couple of weeks, and were planning a leisurely move home over the weekend, but are taking the forced march approach instead. Don't want to get stuck in a tiny cold house with no power.

 

[JeffnTrussville]

Just curious, does anyone have any knowledge of how well Birmingham and Atlanta airports handle snow these days? I(as well as quite a few other Bama fans) am scheduled to fly out of Birmingham Saturday mid-day in route to Tampa. Of course I have to fly thru Atlanta. I'm fine getting cancelled on Saturday, but do these airports typically get things up and running within 24hrs after snowfall? Just trying to come up with some game plan in the event of travel issues.

 

[ShowMeYourTDs]

If the current trends I am seeing from the last 3 runs continue on the gfs...we may have to up the totals beyond 3" in east central Al...south of I20/east of I65. Sleet may reduce those amounts a bit, but the snow may be quite heavy and accumulate quickly. Check out the 250mb on the gfs, last 6 runs. Upper air is stronger and SW flow is more southerly vs. westerly.

Curious to get your thoughts on the slow, but steady NW progression of the GFS over the last few runs. Seems that totals should be increasing on a NE to SW orientation based on the estimated precip maps. Do you think this adjustment will come later, if at all?

 

[Richardjacks]

I think the precip will expand a little further north...totals have been increasing with each run on the GFS in that corridor you mentioned...also shifting north.

 

[metfascination]

LOL AJC went full panic.
http://www.ajc.com/weather/winter-s...least-days-state-says/Awa4ESCWN3wTWHp9iGHuYK/

Holy smoke - well I guess after the Snowmageddon of 2014.....

 

[ShowMeYourTDs]

For the ATLers:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1127 AM EST Thu Jan 5 2017


.UPDATE...
Forecast remains tricky with regards to snowfall accumulations and
timing of onset Friday. The overnight ensembles have reiterated
previous solutions with higher snowfall amounts over the metro
Atlanta area as convective banding dumps snow over the area late
Friday through Saturday morning. At this time, have focused the
update on hourly temperatures, dew points, QPF and snowfall
amounts. Will continue to monitor the 12z models as they come in
before doing another round of updates for the afternoon forecast
package, but for now 4"+ snowfall possible for portions of the
eastern metro area, with most of the Atlanta metro generally
seeing 2-3". Winter Storm Watch still in effect and will likely
need to upgrade to Warnings/Advisories this afternoon given the
current forecast amounts.

31

&&

&&

 

[ARCC]

Even though the 12z cut the frozen precip total for me, the ensemble mean actually ticked up a hair.

 

[Pluviophile]

Yeah, my 3 year old has never seen enough snow to remember. Hoping he gets a chance to play in some.

Heck, my 17-year-old and 12-year-old have never seen more than about 2 inches! Maaaybe 3 inches....

 

[SASQUATCH]

EURO just told most of Alabama to "Talk to the Hand"

 

[Fred Gossage]

The Euro was too far south, similarly, with the moisture for another interesting storm system a few years ago. It also underperformed on QPF in the area with just Monday's system. Could it be right? Sure... some of the high resolution models think so.... but those models also didn't do too well with the QPF back on Monday either...

 

[JeffnTrussville]

Do I remember correctly that the EURO typically has issues inside 48 hrs?

 

[SASQUATCH]

The Euro was too far south, similarly, with the moisture for another interesting storm system a few years ago. It also underperformed on QPF in the area with just Monday's system. Could it be right? Sure... some of the high resolution models think so.... but those models also didn't do too well with the QPF back on Monday either...

Nice to see you here, Fred!

 

[ARCC]

GFS vs the world.

 

[Richardjacks]

The Euro was too far south, similarly, with the moisture for another interesting storm system a few years ago. It also underperformed on QPF in the area with just Monday's system. Could it be right? Sure... some of the high resolution models think so.... but those models also didn't do too well with the QPF back on Monday either...

Hi Fred!

That solution just doesn't look right to me. I have seen this set-up many times and know there will be overunning precip. Now I guess we could have drier air evap the precip...but I just can't figure out how it would be THAT dry.