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1/6-1/7 Winter Storm Potential Thread (3 Viewers)


ShowMeYourTDs

Member
Messages
31
Location
Decatur, GA
 

Brax

Member
Messages
88
Location
Atlanta, GA
12z NAM brings more QPF to the table, starting in the metro around 4PM. Also things shifted NW again (surprising no one) but temp profiles appear to be relatively unchanged.
The overall result (Due to the horrendous handling of the thermals) looks like less snow, but if you adjust very much for model bias it'd likely be a decent run.
 

ShowMeYourTDs

Member
Messages
31
Location
Decatur, GA
12z NAM brings more QPF to the table, starting in the metro around 4PM. Also things shifted NW again (surprising no one) but temp profiles appear to be relatively unchanged.
The overall result (Due to the horrendous handling of the thermals) looks like less snow, but if you adjust very much for model bias it'd likely be a decent run.

What are 850s & 2m's looking like? I can't view TT at work...all I have is NCEP
 

Brax

Member
Messages
88
Location
Atlanta, GA
What are 850s & 2m's looking like? I can't view TT at work...all I have is NCEP

33/34 at surface with DPs well below freezing. (NAM has been having an incredible problem with WAA on this system.... It's like it doesn't understand how overrunning works)
850s are just as borderline.
 

ARCC

Member
Messages
417
Location
Coosa county
NAM is still garbage but some improvement. However look at where the light snow band sets up, SW AL through Clanton to ATL. That agrees with the GFS.

In other news it's glad to be back. Feels like we've come home!
 

ShowMeYourTDs

Member
Messages
31
Location
Decatur, GA
33/34 at surface with DPs well below freezing. (NAM has been having an incredible problem with WAA on this system.... It's like it doesn't understand how overrunning works)
850s are just as borderline.

Likely to be more mixing then. Will need some higher rates to get to those clown totals if that's the case...but at least it is just the NAM
 

Richardjacks

Member
Meteorologist
Messages
727
Location
Hoover, Al
Any chance the main band south of Birmingham still could shift north with the 12z runs or is it too late for changes like that in runs this close to the event?
I think there is a good chance of a northward shift prob. into at least Shelby county, maybe southern Jefferson. Also, I suspect the precip will fill in more as well...plus that is the current trend for the nam.
 

ARCC

Member
Messages
417
Location
Coosa county
I think there is a good chance of a northward shift prob. into at least Shelby county, maybe southern Jefferson. Also, I suspect the precip will fill in more as well...plus that is the current trend for the nam.

I've seen the 6z GFS come in with a little warm bias as well. Wouldn't surprise me at all if the 12z come in colder. If QPF keeps increasing this may be a central AL storm of legend , whatever frozen form falls.
 

tagat

Member
Messages
32
Location
Sylacauga, Al
I think there is a good chance of a northward shift prob. into at least Shelby county, maybe southern Jefferson. Also, I suspect the precip will fill in more as well...plus that is the current trend for the nam.
Do you think there will be any surprises with higher totals here in central Al, or we will be lucky to see up to 3in.
 

Richardjacks

Member
Meteorologist
Messages
727
Location
Hoover, Al
I think the 3" mark is about max...I could see a higher amount west to east starting around I65 somewhere between Chilton and Jefferson county...ultimately that is the zone I think there will be more forcing and banding with highest moisture content in the DGZ. The GFS continues to show a slight north shift with each run and now the nam is following, but I still think the NAM is underplaying the precip field, but it is beginning to catch on.
 

Blountwolf

Member
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
179
Location
Blount Springs
OK, someone fill us in on the big picture of this system - what are the pieces on the board this time? Cold air? Check. Moisture? Check. What's the forcing mechanism - surface low? I confess, I haven't paid much attention to this threat until I went under the WSW.
 
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