1/6-1/7 Winter Storm Potential Thread (2 Viewers)

[Brax]

I think FFC is waiting for something before they really commit.... Things keep trending up though so they've gotta say something soon.

 

[atlwx]

Pretty sure this graphic uses 10:1 ratios. Actual ratios could be in the average of 15:1 range verbatim. GFS has been incredible consistent throughout the past few days....

This pleases me.

Hey y'all! Glad to be back!!

 

[k0skinne]

Great to have it back and THANK YOU to all of you who worked so hard during this time.

Now, good luck to all with the approaching winter weather. Hopefully all of us will win!

 

[Brax]

Gonna post this here so it gets seen.... The local mets are all hugging the heck out of the NAM..... Which is pretty funny since the WPC diagnostics disco says straight up, for this system the NAM can be discounted completely. They're suggesting a GFS, GEFS, ECMWF blend.... You heard it right. Those models that give us the MOST is what the WPC is suggesting everyone use. http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd

 

[SASQUATCH]

Testing

 

[Mr. Plow]

6z GEFS doesn't give anyone even the least bit of excuse to ditch it....

I'll take E7 please!.

It's great to have TW back!

 

[ShowMeYourTDs]

I think FFC is waiting for something before they really commit.... Things keep trending up though so they've gotta say something soon.

Maybe something along the lines of 2-4" ? Based on 0z EURO & 06z GFS runs it looks like the precip axis may be right along 85.

 

[TripleJ185]

Love seeing the numbers and great having the site back with recognizable members!

 

[Brax]

9z SREF is in. It's beginning to cave to the GFS as well. 40% of the members say snow, 40% say rain (Huge improvement over 03z) - Since the rain members basically mimic the NAM and the CPC says we can discount them, we're left with ~80% chance of snow. Adjusting for the low members due to the rain, our mean snowfall total of the SREF plume is roughly 4 inches for KATL. The timing of the snow supporting members are all in line with the GFS to start around 1AM Saturday morning.

 

[Brax]

Maybe something along the lines of 2-4" ? Based on 0z EURO & 06z GFS runs it looks like the precip axis may be right along 85.

I think that'll be their next call map. They may increase to 6 if the models keep screaming that at us... 0z COBB adjusted GFS gave us 7.5" and the 6z gave us 12" - It's easy to forget the snow ratios here in the south and just to assume 10:1, but with this super cold arctic air that is coming in, they have to be accounted for.

 

[nautile]

I'm usually take it or leave it with snow, but it has to happen this time. My son's OT told him it might snow Friday. He doesn't hear the word 'might.'

 

[ShowMeYourTDs]

I think that'll be their next call map. They may increase to 6 if the models keep screaming that at us... 0z COBB adjusted GFS gave us 7.5" and the 6z gave us 12" - It's easy to forget the snow ratios here in the south and just to assume 10:1, but with this super cold arctic air that is coming in, they have to be accounted for.

I'm trying to remember what part of town you're in- Marrietta?

 

[Richardjacks]

12 NAM showing a good bit more tilt in our s/w at hr. 21

 

[Brax]

I'm trying to remember what part of town you're in- Marrietta?

Yep. Right at KMGE.

 

[ShowMeYourTDs]

Yep. Right at KMGE.

I'm between downtown Decatur and East Lake CC. KPDK is probably the closest reporting station to me.

 

[Brax]

I'm between downtown Decatur and East Lake CC. KPDK is probably the closest reporting station to me.

You'll likely get more than me then. Lucky!

 

[ShowMeYourTDs]

You'll likely get more than me then. Lucky!

I'm not ready to start beating that drum yet. Seems like these suckers still always slide NW at the last minute. But who knows. One thing's for certain; I am refusing to buy firewood this weekend. I'm afraid that if I do, I'll jinx the system for the board.

 

[Brax]

I'm not ready to start beating that drum yet. Seems like these suckers still always slide NW at the last minute. But who knows. One thing's for certain; I am refusing to buy firewood this weekend. I'm afraid that if I do, I'll jinx the system for the board.

Hope you have a very warm house and a super trusty power grid. It's gonna get COLLLLLD Sunday/Monday.

 

[ShowMeYourTDs]

Hope you have a very warm house and a super trusty power grid. It's gonna get COLLLLLD Sunday/Monday.

I think I've got enough to get thru this one already anyway.

 

[tagat]

Winter Storm Watch for AL added more counties to the south. Possible upgrading to Winter Storm Advisory later today/night. Pic from Spann's Blog

Also From James Spann Blog his thoughts for Accumulations in watch area.