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1/6-1/7 Winter Storm Potential Thread (2 Viewers)


Brax

Brax

Member
Messages
88
Location
Atlanta, GA
I think FFC is waiting for something before they really commit.... Things keep trending up though so they've gotta say something soon.
 
atlwx

atlwx

Member
Messages
3
Location
Atlanta
Brax said:


Pretty sure this graphic uses 10:1 ratios. Actual ratios could be in the average of 15:1 range verbatim. GFS has been incredible consistent throughout the past few days....
Click to expand...

This pleases me.

Hey y'all! Glad to be back!!
 
K

k0skinne

Member
Messages
10
Location
Carrollton, GA
Great to have it back and THANK YOU to all of you who worked so hard during this time.

Now, good luck to all with the approaching winter weather. Hopefully all of us will win!
 
Brax

Brax

Member
Messages
88
Location
Atlanta, GA
Gonna post this here so it gets seen.... The local mets are all hugging the heck out of the NAM..... Which is pretty funny since the WPC diagnostics disco says straight up, for this system the NAM can be discounted completely. They're suggesting a GFS, GEFS, ECMWF blend.... You heard it right. Those models that give us the MOST is what the WPC is suggesting everyone use. http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd
 
ShowMeYourTDs

ShowMeYourTDs

Member
Messages
31
Location
Decatur, GA
Brax said:
I think FFC is waiting for something before they really commit.... Things keep trending up though so they've gotta say something soon.
Click to expand...


Maybe something along the lines of 2-4" ? Based on 0z EURO & 06z GFS runs it looks like the precip axis may be right along 85.
 
Brax

Brax

Member
Messages
88
Location
Atlanta, GA
9z SREF is in. It's beginning to cave to the GFS as well. 40% of the members say snow, 40% say rain (Huge improvement over 03z) - Since the rain members basically mimic the NAM and the CPC says we can discount them, we're left with ~80% chance of snow. Adjusting for the low members due to the rain, our mean snowfall total of the SREF plume is roughly 4 inches for KATL. The timing of the snow supporting members are all in line with the GFS to start around 1AM Saturday morning.
 
Brax

Brax

Member
Messages
88
Location
Atlanta, GA
ShowMeYourTDs said:
Maybe something along the lines of 2-4" ? Based on 0z EURO & 06z GFS runs it looks like the precip axis may be right along 85.
Click to expand...

I think that'll be their next call map. They may increase to 6 if the models keep screaming that at us... 0z COBB adjusted GFS gave us 7.5" and the 6z gave us 12" - It's easy to forget the snow ratios here in the south and just to assume 10:1, but with this super cold arctic air that is coming in, they have to be accounted for.
 
nautile

nautile

Member
Messages
24
Location
Chelsea, AL
I'm usually take it or leave it with snow, but it has to happen this time. My son's OT told him it might snow Friday. He doesn't hear the word 'might.'
 
ShowMeYourTDs

ShowMeYourTDs

Member
Messages
31
Location
Decatur, GA
Brax said:
I think that'll be their next call map. They may increase to 6 if the models keep screaming that at us... 0z COBB adjusted GFS gave us 7.5" and the 6z gave us 12" - It's easy to forget the snow ratios here in the south and just to assume 10:1, but with this super cold arctic air that is coming in, they have to be accounted for.
Click to expand...

I'm trying to remember what part of town you're in- Marrietta?
 
ShowMeYourTDs

ShowMeYourTDs

Member
Messages
31
Location
Decatur, GA
Brax said:
You'll likely get more than me then. Lucky!
Click to expand...

I'm not ready to start beating that drum yet. Seems like these suckers still always slide NW at the last minute. But who knows. One thing's for certain; I am refusing to buy firewood this weekend. I'm afraid that if I do, I'll jinx the system for the board.
 
Brax

Brax

Member
Messages
88
Location
Atlanta, GA
ShowMeYourTDs said:
I'm not ready to start beating that drum yet. Seems like these suckers still always slide NW at the last minute. But who knows. One thing's for certain; I am refusing to buy firewood this weekend. I'm afraid that if I do, I'll jinx the system for the board.
Click to expand...
Hope you have a very warm house and a super trusty power grid. It's gonna get COLLLLLD Sunday/Monday.
 
tagat

tagat

Member
Messages
32
Location
Sylacauga, Al
Winter Storm Watch for AL added more counties to the south. Possible upgrading to Winter Storm Advisory later today/night. Pic from Spann's Blog



Also From James Spann Blog his thoughts for Accumulations in watch area.

 
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