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12z NAM brings more QPF to the table, starting in the metro around 4PM. Also things shifted NW again (surprising no one) but temp profiles appear to be relatively unchanged.
The overall result (Due to the horrendous handling of the thermals) looks like less snow, but if you adjust very much for model bias it'd likely be a decent run.
Any chance the main band south of Birmingham still could shift north with the 12z runs or is it too late for changes like that in runs this close to the event?12 NAM showing a good bit more tilt in our s/w at hr. 21
What are 850s & 2m's looking like? I can't view TT at work...all I have is NCEP
33/34 at surface with DPs well below freezing. (NAM has been having an incredible problem with WAA on this system.... It's like it doesn't understand how overrunning works)
850s are just as borderline.
I think there is a good chance of a northward shift prob. into at least Shelby county, maybe southern Jefferson. Also, I suspect the precip will fill in more as well...plus that is the current trend for the nam.Any chance the main band south of Birmingham still could shift north with the 12z runs or is it too late for changes like that in runs this close to the event?
I think there is a good chance of a northward shift prob. into at least Shelby county, maybe southern Jefferson. Also, I suspect the precip will fill in more as well...plus that is the current trend for the nam.
Do you think there will be any surprises with higher totals here in central Al, or we will be lucky to see up to 3in.I think there is a good chance of a northward shift prob. into at least Shelby county, maybe southern Jefferson. Also, I suspect the precip will fill in more as well...plus that is the current trend for the nam.
Sniff sniff.
Long time. Glad to see youSniff sniff.
Something's in the works when the wolf starts sniffin'