barcncpt44
Member
Here is the warning map from NWS Peachtree City.
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1/6-1/7 Winter Storm Potential Thread
- Thread starter Tyler Penland
- Start date
ShowMeYourTDs
Member
Looks like some extra backside moisture that I hadn't noticed previously @ 33hrs. Is this new or am I just stupid?
SASQUATCH
Member
12K 18Z NAM thru hr 36
bingcrosbyb
Member
NAM looking closer to the GFS.
ShowMeYourTDs
Member
Does that look like it's nosing back south & west with the accum map? Looks like the heavier axis is along I-85.
SASQUATCH
Member
All I can tell right now is a nice northward expansion of precip field modeled.
NAM is finally catching on...I still think the heaviest precipitation could be a little further north...but the trend is clear.
Casie
Member
Thanks! I like the look of that!
ShowMeYourTDs
Member
I need to go back and look at the 12z GFS...didn't deem it appropriate to slump down in the seat during a conference call with the boss & watch the frames......Don't act like y'all haven't done that
Tazzman
Member
You've been calling it for several days now Richard....bring it home!
bingcrosbyb
Member
18z NAM simulated radar and H5. You can see now the precipitation developing due to the forcing for north Alabama showing up around 9pm Friday evening. I haven't seen this before from the NAM and is a step closer to the GFS solution. The best moisture however still remains south of I-20 as there is only very very light precip for north Alabama during the day Friday. I like the current NWS placement of heavier precip between Birmingham and Montgomery with the best dynamics as the system develops and starts to pivot northeast.
Note the SREF 15Z plume shows an average around 1" for Birmingham with some larger and smaller members. Combined with the Euro showing 1.4", the 1-2" for I-20 and points east still seems reasonable.
ARCC
Member
Really a bogus map, 850s a scorching for most of the precip except for far north AL. Otherwise it's pretty much a dusting for most of us unless you get some ZR/IP.
In other terms, not a good run except if you live in Huntsville.
SASQUATCH
Member
Richard, it seems the associated low in the Gulf develops closer to the coast and comes inland a little steeper than past runs. Don't know if this helps my location much since I think most of what we potentially see will be from overrunning. Your thoughts are appreciated.
daculaweather
Member
LOVE the FFC AFD...
-----------------------
...INCREASING CHANCES FOR HIGH IMPACT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
NORTH GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday/...
Potentially high impact accumulating snow event on our hands for
majority of north Georgia and parts of west central Georgia starting in
far north Friday afternoon then transitioning southward by late
afternoon into the overnight. The setup isn't of a variety that we see
very often in the region as it is not the more typical CAD wedge with
overrunning moisture and resultant diabatic low level effects...but an
advective more large scale forcing interacting with a developing
Gulf/coastal low pressure system and the enhanced risk for convective
banding of heavier snow within the northern deformation zone. Multiple
forcings are at play with conditional instability with the saturated
column...mid/upper level vorticity advection from the west and low
level translated cyclogenesis to the south.
P-type and amounts...progged thermal profiles and very deep saturation
columns support a rain to snow transition with possibly brief sleet
period. The main worry will be the heavy snow potential within
convective banding that could occur by late Friday afternoon into early
Saturday morning that includes the Atlanta metro area. Given the
possible liquid equivalent moisture and snow to liquid ratios upwards
of 12:1 /possibly higher at times/...a band could quickly dump a few
inches within an hour. Some high res models that resolve convective
processes explicitly are indicating multiple bands...though some
discrepancy on exact location. Overall expected amounts of 2 to 4
inches with locally higher north of a line from Hamilton to Forsyth to
Lexington that includes the Atlanta metro area. Have upgraded the
Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning accordingly and started
the onset for farther southern portions including Atlanta after 21z
Friday or 4 PM. This continues through 1 PM Saturday as it should be
diminishing to the east as the low tracks farther up the east coast
...though additional concern is to what little snow could melt through
the weekend and even Monday if these snow totals come to fruition. Even
areas farther south outside the warning location may end up with
subsequent overnight ice developing given the arctic followup. Further
advisory upgrades may be warranted.
Please monitor the forecast updates leading up to this event as some
amounts and timing could be adjusted...but this is our best filtered
estimate to what has been a roller coaster ride of various guidance
member solutions in the last several days...while acknowledging this
-----------------------
...INCREASING CHANCES FOR HIGH IMPACT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
NORTH GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday/...
Potentially high impact accumulating snow event on our hands for
majority of north Georgia and parts of west central Georgia starting in
far north Friday afternoon then transitioning southward by late
afternoon into the overnight. The setup isn't of a variety that we see
very often in the region as it is not the more typical CAD wedge with
overrunning moisture and resultant diabatic low level effects...but an
advective more large scale forcing interacting with a developing
Gulf/coastal low pressure system and the enhanced risk for convective
banding of heavier snow within the northern deformation zone. Multiple
forcings are at play with conditional instability with the saturated
column...mid/upper level vorticity advection from the west and low
level translated cyclogenesis to the south.
P-type and amounts...progged thermal profiles and very deep saturation
columns support a rain to snow transition with possibly brief sleet
period. The main worry will be the heavy snow potential within
convective banding that could occur by late Friday afternoon into early
Saturday morning that includes the Atlanta metro area. Given the
possible liquid equivalent moisture and snow to liquid ratios upwards
of 12:1 /possibly higher at times/...a band could quickly dump a few
inches within an hour. Some high res models that resolve convective
processes explicitly are indicating multiple bands...though some
discrepancy on exact location. Overall expected amounts of 2 to 4
inches with locally higher north of a line from Hamilton to Forsyth to
Lexington that includes the Atlanta metro area. Have upgraded the
Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning accordingly and started
the onset for farther southern portions including Atlanta after 21z
Friday or 4 PM. This continues through 1 PM Saturday as it should be
diminishing to the east as the low tracks farther up the east coast
...though additional concern is to what little snow could melt through
the weekend and even Monday if these snow totals come to fruition. Even
areas farther south outside the warning location may end up with
subsequent overnight ice developing given the arctic followup. Further
advisory upgrades may be warranted.
Please monitor the forecast updates leading up to this event as some
amounts and timing could be adjusted...but this is our best filtered
estimate to what has been a roller coaster ride of various guidance
member solutions in the last several days...while acknowledging this
SASQUATCH
Member
bingcrosbyb
Member
Winter Storm Warning for Central Alabama (South of Birmingham) from 6am Friday to 9am Saturday.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
307 PM CST THU JAN 5 2017
...WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...
.A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING BRINGING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. AT NEARLY THE SAME TIME... A WEAK
GULF SYSTEM WILL FORM SPREADING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
ARE LIKELY IN THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS. PLEASE STAY TUNED
TO LOCAL MEDIA PARTNERS FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AS THIS
EVENT GETS CLOSER. SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY.
ALZ019-021-025-027>029-035>038-061200-
/O.UPG.KBMX.WS.A.0001.170106T1200Z-170107T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KBMX.WS.W.0001.170106T1200Z-170107T1500Z/
CALHOUN-CLEBURNE-SHELBY-TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CHILTON-COOSA-
TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANNISTON...HEFLIN...TALLADEGA...
SYLACAUGA...ASHLAND...ROANOKE...CLANTON...ROCKFORD...
ALEXANDER CITY...VALLEY...LANETT
307 PM CST THU JAN 5 2017
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CST
SATURDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM
FRIDAY TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.
* EVENT...A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS.
* TIMING...FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
* LOCATION...LARGEST IMPACTS FROM A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-65
* ACCUMULATIONS...RANGING FROM NEAR 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND
SLEET ACCUMULATION SOUTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-65. IMPACTS
COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.
&&
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
307 PM CST THU JAN 5 2017
...WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...
.A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING BRINGING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. AT NEARLY THE SAME TIME... A WEAK
GULF SYSTEM WILL FORM SPREADING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
ARE LIKELY IN THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS. PLEASE STAY TUNED
TO LOCAL MEDIA PARTNERS FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AS THIS
EVENT GETS CLOSER. SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY.
ALZ019-021-025-027>029-035>038-061200-
/O.UPG.KBMX.WS.A.0001.170106T1200Z-170107T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KBMX.WS.W.0001.170106T1200Z-170107T1500Z/
CALHOUN-CLEBURNE-SHELBY-TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CHILTON-COOSA-
TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANNISTON...HEFLIN...TALLADEGA...
SYLACAUGA...ASHLAND...ROANOKE...CLANTON...ROCKFORD...
ALEXANDER CITY...VALLEY...LANETT
307 PM CST THU JAN 5 2017
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CST
SATURDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM
FRIDAY TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.
* EVENT...A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS.
* TIMING...FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
* LOCATION...LARGEST IMPACTS FROM A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-65
* ACCUMULATIONS...RANGING FROM NEAR 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND
SLEET ACCUMULATION SOUTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-65. IMPACTS
COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.
&&
nautile
Member
Schools beginning to announce closures for tomorrow. Winter Storm Warning starting 6 a.m. tomorrow for CALHOUN-CLEBURNE-SHELBY-TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CHILTON-COOSA-
TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS
TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS
bingcrosbyb
Member
Winter Weather Advisory for I-20 corridor 6am Friday to 9am Saturday
RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
307 PM CST THU JAN 5 2017
...WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...
.A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING BRINGING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. AT NEARLY THE SAME TIME... A WEAK
GULF SYSTEM WILL FORM SPREADING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
ARE LIKELY IN THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS. PLEASE STAY TUNED
TO LOCAL MEDIA PARTNERS FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AS THIS
EVENT GETS CLOSER. SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY.
ALZ015-017-018-020-022>024-026-034-061200-
/O.UPG.KBMX.WS.A.0001.170106T1200Z-170107T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KBMX.WW.Y.0001.170106T1200Z-170107T1500Z/
WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CHEROKEE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-
ST. CLAIR-BIBB-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JASPER...GADSDEN...CENTRE...
CARROLLTON...TUSCALOOSA...BIRMINGHAM...HOOVER...PELL CITY...MOODY
307 PM CST THU JAN 5 2017
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CST
SATURDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY
TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.
* EVENT...A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS.
* TIMING...FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
* LOCATION...LARGEST IMPACTS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20.
* ACCUMULATIONS...ONE HALF TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
A CORRIDOR INCLUDING TUSCALOOSA...THE BIRMINGHAM METRO AREA...
GADSDEN AND LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.
&&
$$
RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
307 PM CST THU JAN 5 2017
...WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...
.A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING BRINGING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. AT NEARLY THE SAME TIME... A WEAK
GULF SYSTEM WILL FORM SPREADING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
ARE LIKELY IN THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS. PLEASE STAY TUNED
TO LOCAL MEDIA PARTNERS FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AS THIS
EVENT GETS CLOSER. SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY.
ALZ015-017-018-020-022>024-026-034-061200-
/O.UPG.KBMX.WS.A.0001.170106T1200Z-170107T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KBMX.WW.Y.0001.170106T1200Z-170107T1500Z/
WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CHEROKEE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-
ST. CLAIR-BIBB-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JASPER...GADSDEN...CENTRE...
CARROLLTON...TUSCALOOSA...BIRMINGHAM...HOOVER...PELL CITY...MOODY
307 PM CST THU JAN 5 2017
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CST
SATURDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY
TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.
* EVENT...A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS.
* TIMING...FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
* LOCATION...LARGEST IMPACTS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20.
* ACCUMULATIONS...ONE HALF TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
A CORRIDOR INCLUDING TUSCALOOSA...THE BIRMINGHAM METRO AREA...
GADSDEN AND LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.
&&
$$
ARCC
Member
Yeah but look at the sim reflectivity and then the QPF maps following. Go to Pivotal Weather. Their maps do a much better job at taking out the noise(precip with surface temps under 32 degrees)
barcncpt44
Member
Winter Storm Warning issued for Anniston/Oxford, Sylacauga, Alexander City, Clanton, Talladega, Roanoke.
