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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023

CheeselandSkies said:
Was not expecting no tornado or even severe thunderstorm warnings in MS/AL/TN at 2120Z based this morning's HRRR runs, that's for sure.

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I'm ready to hear treys breakdown , I've learned a lot by his videos alone.

We still arent out of the woods yet. I'd watch for a sneaky tornado threat in south central / south Alabama moving forward.
 
Bama Ravens said:
Storm mode in central/south MS and into Alabama seems pretty messy right now. Wonder if that’s going to hinder things?
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I am still concerned that as the low level jet ramps up a bit this evening, there will be enough instability remaining. We are still in February, so it doesn't take as much.
 
This cell near Silas is intriguing.. moving forward it may be one a issue.
 

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Extremely weak low level lapse rates may be some of our issue today. I remember them being forecasted to be around 6.5 to 7 for a good portion of central Alabama if I'm correct. Need more high lapse rates than that for any substantial rotation or storms.
 
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