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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023

Yeah, you are right about those two, but there is also that sneaky EF4 in SE Georgia there and the Georgia tornado last year, so I think that is 4 in total there.
The Southeast Georgia one is the Bryan County EF-4 from last year. I just didn't pay attention to it initially. As another poster pointed out, that tornado really is an anomaly.
 
Bassfield with a TOR.
1676578668467.png
 
Bassfuield needs a tornado warning

It's been issued:

714
WFUS54 KJAN 162016
TORJAN
MSC031-065-067-091-162115-
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0022.230216T2016Z-230216T2115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Jackson MS
216 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northeastern Marion County in south central Mississippi...
Covington County in southeastern Mississippi...
West central Jones County in southeastern Mississippi...
Southern Jefferson Davis County in south central Mississippi...

* Until 315 PM CST.

* At 215 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Bunker Hill, or 12 miles north of Columbia, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Carson around 220 PM CST.
Melba around 225 PM CST.
Collins around 240 PM CST.
Hebron around 255 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Bassfield and Seminary.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3147 8996 3180 8945 3180 8939 3159 8925
3143 8959 3143 8965 3140 8965 3135 8977
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 233DEG 40KT 3144 8981

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

AJ
 
Lord almighty this thread is flying. Alright let me try to post a little analysis, hopefully it doesn't get buried lol.

Southern target: Storms have finally caught onto a RM movement, meaning they're actually ingesting SRH and feeling the shear. This means we're finally starting to see semi-discrete structures. The cells behind bassfield don't look bad either, and there's more showers to the southeast that could root and develop into supercells with time. It looks like our LLJ is performing about as expected, but it has improved, meaning that we're getting more robust low level kinematics which will help allow for storms to become right movers.

Northern target: looks like we're having OFD issues at the moment with a lot of cells. QLCS tors may be more common up there. That being said, shear is very impressive and QLCS tornadoes coming out of that area could absolutely be significant. In far N MS, there's a more discrete storm that's currently tor warned that could also be a problem.
 
Lord almighty this thread is flying. Alright let me try to post a little analysis, hopefully it doesn't get buried lol.

Southern target: Storms have finally caught onto a RM movement, meaning they're actually ingesting SRH and feeling the shear. This means we're finally starting to see semi-discrete structures. The cells behind bassfield don't look bad either, and there's more showers to the southeast that could root and develop into supercells with time. It looks like our LLJ is performing about as expected, but it has improved, meaning that we're getting more robust low level kinematics which will help allow for storms to become right movers.

Northern target: looks like we're having OFD issues at the moment with a lot of cells. QLCS tors may be more common up there. That being said, shear is very impressive and QLCS tornadoes coming out of that area could absolutely be significant. In far N MS, there's a more discrete storm that's currently tor warned that could also be a problem.
Good post! Thanks for the update
 
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