Severe Weather Threat - November 3rd-6th, 2022

[TH2002]

Any word from the eastern side of Broken Bow/areas east of town? There was a big TDS blowup right around that area but have yet to see anything.

Some damage shots from Idabel

 

[buckeye05]

Really? Are there any notable surveys that you would consider 'conservative' in recent years from the Fort Worth WFO?

Dec 2015 surveys were abysmal. Photos show the team never left their car to inspect many of the paths, and all later paths from the Garland/Rowlett supercell were rated mostly EF1 with some EF2, despite stronger damage being apparent.

Earlier that year, they assigned a low-end EF3 rating to the Cisco, TX tornado, despite extreme damage to vegetation, vehicles, and houses, and clearly being well within the violent category.

More recently, the second of the two 2017 Canton, TX wedge tornadoes debarked trees, scoured grass, mangled vehicles, and leveled homes, yet was rated EF3. Aerial photography revealed that the leveled homes weren’t included in the survey for some reason.

The October 2019 Dallas outbreak surveys were also pretty bad.

So yeah, not a trusted WFO when it comes to surveys.

 

[Tanner]

Dec 2015 surveys were abysmal. Photos show the team never left their car to inspect many of the paths, and all later paths from the Garland/Rowlett supercell were rated mostly EF1 with some EF2, despite stronger damage being apparent.

Earlier that year, they assigned a low-end EF3 rating to the Cisco, TX tornado, despite extreme damage to vegetation, vehicles, and houses, and clearly being well within the violent category.

More recently, the second of the two 2017 Canton, TX wedge tornadoes debarked trees, scoured grass, mangled vehicles, and leveled homes, yet was rated EF3. Aerial photography revealed that the leveled homes weren’t included in the survey for some reason.

The October 2019 Dallas outbreak surveys were also pretty bad.

So yeah, not a trusted WFO when it comes to surveys.

Thank you. Doesn't lessen the effect of those tornadoes or these ones, that's for sure. Again, the SPC, storm spotters, law enforcement, media all seemed to do a great job handling this event. I'm curious to see what news coverage gets released so that we can watch it. It has to be hard with the massive radar gap in northeastern Texas to cover severe weather.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

It’s NWS Fort Worth, and they are one of the most conservative survey teams. Even if those slabbed houses end up being well-built, I’m not expecting them to go above EF3 knowing their track record.

Obviously multiple violent candidates from this outbreak though.

The EF3 rating for that one house seems correct but you are right NWS Fort Worth does ignore extreme contextual damage. It is irrelevant.. Tim Marshall and Gary Woodall also believe it is Irrelevant as do a number of NWS offices.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Dec 2015 surveys were abysmal. Photos show the team never left their car to inspect many of the paths, and all later paths from the Garland/Rowlett supercell were rated mostly EF1 with some EF2, despite stronger damage being apparent.

Earlier that year, they assigned a low-end EF3 rating to the Cisco, TX tornado, despite extreme damage to vegetation, vehicles, and houses, and clearly being well within the violent category.

More recently, the second of the two 2017 Canton, TX wedge tornadoes debarked trees, scoured grass, mangled vehicles, and leveled homes, yet was rated EF3. Aerial photography revealed that the leveled homes weren’t included in the survey for some reason.

The October 2019 Dallas outbreak surveys were also pretty bad.

So yeah, not a trusted WFO when it comes to surveys.

Here is something from the Bridge Creek-Moore 1999 tornado. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/scour.htm

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Here is something from the Bridge Creek-Moore 1999 tornado. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/scour.htm

Is that scouring only F2 or F3 Buckeye05? Not a chance.

 

[buckeye05]

Let’s stay on topic please

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Let’s stay on topic please

Ok, but you did mention other tornadoes that should have been rated as violent because of extreme context. I wonder if NWS Shreveport is a more lenient NWS office.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

Ok, but you did mention other tornadoes that should have been rated as violent because of extreme context. I wonder if NWS Shreveport is a more lenient NWS office.

He never even mentioned Westminster.

Significant Tornado Events

Whoops, I missed a group of photos from around the Tiffin area, near the start of the path. These are all from the same property. A before and after of the family's home: Two of the family cars destroyed: Their barn and other assorted wreckage: Wow, that vehicle damage...

talkweather.com

VHE F4 at minimum.........rated HE F3. What the hell......

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

He never even mentioned Westminster.

Significant Tornado Events

Whoops, I missed a group of photos from around the Tiffin area, near the start of the path. These are all from the same property. A before and after of the family's home: Two of the family cars destroyed: Their barn and other assorted wreckage: Wow, that vehicle damage...

talkweather.com

VHE F4 at minimum.........rated HE F3. What the hell......

I said other tornadoes that should have been rated as violent not just Westminster 2006.

 

[TH2002]

The Clarksville-Idabel tornado was clearly violent well before crossing the state line into Oklahoma, at least one large home was slabbed near Clarksville with pretty impressive contextual damage occurring on the property. This is possibly the most violent damage I've seen so far from this outbreak.

source:

 

[pohnpei]

Some violent damage made by clarksville tornado.

 

[TH2002]

Idabel tornado is preliminary EF3.

NWS: At least 4 tornadoes in ETX, SE OK; surveys continue

Surveys of the damage are ongoing, but the National Weather Services says their teams have confirmed at least four tornadoes so far from Friday’s storms that killed at least two people, injur…

www.ktalnews.com

 

[Tomcats Forever!]

Some violent damage made by clarksville tornado.
View attachment 15416View attachment 15417View attachment 15418View attachment 15419View attachment 15420

Looks like some scouring, possibly. The divot in the second pic could be an impact from the car.

 

[buckeye05]

Idabel tornado is preliminary EF3.

NWS: At least 4 tornadoes in ETX, SE OK; surveys continue

Surveys of the damage are ongoing, but the National Weather Services says their teams have confirmed at least four tornadoes so far from Friday’s storms that killed at least two people, injur…

www.ktalnews.com

This one needs an upgrade in my opinion. Clarksville and Idabel are within the NWS Shreveport WFO area, and that office tends to have good judgement, but we shall see.

 

[akt1985]

With how violent these tornadoes were last night, it is amazing there has only been confirmed fatality so far.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The moderate risk was slow to be added to the outlook (a forecaster change may have helped with getting that risk in the outlook) and we got pretty low grade tornado watches considering the type of environment and model agreement we had for this setup. The greatest risk area was highlighted so well because of the very obvious weather data.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

The moderate risk was slow to be added to the outlook (a forecaster change may have helped with getting that risk in the outlook) and we got pretty low grade tornado watches considering the type of environment and model agreement we had for this setup. The greatest risk area was highlighted so well because of the very obvious weather data.

The Moderate Risk was fine but I think at least the first tornado watch should have had higher probabilities or A Particularly Dangerous(PDS) Tornado Watch. However, I think the SPC did a great job overall though and probably had uncertainties how this major tornado outbreak was going to materialize.

 

[buckeye05]

Cason/Naples, TX is preliminary EF2. Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't that one sweep away/level homes? Only thing I can think of is maybe they were manufactured homes on a permanent foundation. A bit unusual but still something you see once in a while.

 

[UK_EF4]

Cason/Naples, TX is preliminary EF2. Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't that one sweep away/level homes? Only thing I can think of is maybe they were manufactured homes on a permanent foundation. A bit unusual but still something you see once in a while.

If that’s the same storm that went into New Boston, then judging by DAT, the haven’t surveyed the full path yet. I haven’t seen any damage photos from Naples though either way.