Severe WX April 19-20, 2020 Severe Weather Threat

[RF16Gold]

Wow! It is 86 in Evergreen and only 62 in Montgomery, and 68 in Greenville. What a warm front.

 

[xJownage]

Alright guys so this is a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency already right? /sarcasm

I don't think we're going to see a maximized threat until the LLJ kicks in later this evening. There was already one cell that took a hard right turn just east of jackson and started riding the front, and chasers on the storm reported very disorganized structure. The cell merger N of Laurel, MS is something to watch out for as the evening progresses.

 

[Evan]

Alright guys so this is a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency already right? /sarcasm

I don't think we're going to see a maximized threat until the LLJ kicks in later this evening. There was already one cell that took a hard right turn just east of jackson and started riding the front, and chasers on the storm reported very disorganized structure. The cell merger N of Laurel, MS is something to watch out for as the evening progresses.

Cell near Laurel is riding the warm front. Watching it closely as if it gets a tad bit better organized it should easily be capable of dropping a TOR in a favorable environment.

 

[BayouWeatherGeek]

It's 75 and sunny in my area, there's a tor watch till 10 pm tonight.

 

[TCLwx]

It has been pouring in Tuscaloosa. We might hit 4-5” once all is said and done.

3.87" at my house since midnight. We just eclipsed the 40" mark on the year. And the bottom just fell out of it again.

 

[skelly]

Been having a cold lingering rain now rain picking up and eery thick fog rolling in...

 

[Evan]

Cell near Laurel is riding the warm front. Watching it closely as if it gets a tad bit better organized it should easily be capable of dropping a TOR in a favorable environment.

I'd the 18z HRRR paints some pretty nasty helicity streaks in that corridor over the next several hours. So, this might be the storm or area to watch closely for the next few hours. I think the HRRR is most likely pointing to the cell or complex behind the one that is now north of Laurel as being the one that is most responsible for those helicity streaks.

 

[skelly]

Then fog suddenly lifted...

 

[xJownage]

Cell near Laurel is riding the warm front. Watching it closely as if it gets a tad bit better organized it should easily be capable of dropping a TOR in a favorable environment.

And right on cue it's disorganizing. I think the veering winds are killing the tornado potential right now. Later tonight will likely be another story.

 

[Evan]

Need a TOR SW of Jackson, MS.

 

[xJownage]

Need a TOR SW of Jackson, MS.

Tail end charlie near Tillman looks like it's trying to form an embedded supercell. Pretty notable rotation as well on that.

 

[Evan]

Need a TOR SW of Jackson, MS.

Broadened out in subsequent frames.

 

[xJownage]

I believe that may have been a false return, there was no cc drop and the rotation immediately broadened on the very next scan. Not really sure what to think about it.

 

[Evan]

Watch the cell near Quitman. It's trying to get its act together in a hurry.

 

[Gawxnative]

Watch the cell near Quitman. It's trying to get its act together in a hurry.

Many of the cells in that group are working on "the look". now and again.. Think if it was a couple true discrete it would be trouble

 

[xJownage]

If those cells are going to produce, they're going to now along the boundary. It won't be long before they get north of the front.

 

[sak]

Seems like the threat is over north of I-20. And unless something changes pretty drastically in the next 2-3 hours, there likely won't be any tornadoes north of the Montgomery area. I figured the front would progress a little bit northward through the day but it really hasn't budged at all. The area that is unstable is such a small area that by the time the storms fire and start moving NE they are going to quickly move into cooler air

 

[South AL Wx]

Tornado watch issued for parts of MS/AL until 11 pm. 90/70 probs.

 

[Bama Ravens]

 

[MikeP]

Damn thats a ton of rain on radar....