Severe Weather 2020

[WesL]

I don’t know about overseas, but I know we still have sorties flying daily. Couldn’t they compile some of that information from military aircraft around the US?

Edit: Oops, meant to quote the accuweather article.

I think it is more of a volume issue. As right now there are 5257 flights in the air around the world. I went back to Feb 12, 2020 around the same time as now and there were 15,192 aircraft in flight. More flights, more information, more often in more areas.

Data pulled from FlightRadar24.com

 

[Kory]

Looks like March will come in right about average in terms of the tornado count. The start of April continues to look below average.

 

[Austin Dawg]

Looks like we are going to get some hailers and damaging winds today. Tornado threat low.

 

[andyhb]

Most of the first half of April looks dead severe weather wise, may continue beyond that too.

 

[Gail]

Most of the first half of April looks dead severe weather wise, may continue beyond that too.

I'll take it. There's enough going on in the world right now without throwing more severe weather on top of it.

 

[Kory]

Most of the first half of April looks dead severe weather wise, may continue beyond that too.

I'm interested how things bounce back once we get the MJO into the Western Hemisphere/Indian Ocean next week (and the subsequent lag in atmospheric response). Looks like it's going higher amplitude too. That may be enough to shake up the pattern going into the latter half of the month. But yeah, the first half looks really quiet.

 

[Kory]

I do want to emphasize that our day 5 verification rates on modeling has now been reduced to what we'd see on day 6 to day 7. That's an accuracy reduction to what we'd expect 10-15 years ago! This is mostly due to a lack of data assimilation from aircraft.

We've seen modeling continue to waver on a system next weekend flip-flopping from a suppressed/sheared out mess to a more substantial threat for parts of Dixie. As I've said many times the past couple weeks, DO NOT TAKE ANY MODELING AT FACE VALUE BEYOND 5 DAYS.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

I do want to emphasize that our day 5 verification rates on modeling has now been reduced to what we'd see on day 6 to day 7. That's an accuracy reduction to what we'd expect 10-15 years ago! This is mostly due to a lack of data assimilation from aircraft.

We've seen modeling continue to waver on a system next weekend flip-flopping from a suppressed/sheared out mess to a more substantial threat for parts of Dixie. As I've said many times the past couple weeks, DO NOT TAKE ANY MODELING AT FACE VALUE BEYOND 5 DAYS.

spot on there, data is lacking with this crisis going on

 

[Taylor Campbell]

There’s an active Tuesday-Thursday ahead. That looks certain.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

There’s an active Tuesday-Thursday ahead. That looks certain.

I created a thread for this period. https://talkweather.com/threads/severe-weather-threat-4-7-4-9-2020.1487/. We also need to watch this weekend and early next week for a potential threat. Keep your head up.

 

[MichelleH]

I created a thread for this period. https://talkweather.com/threads/severe-weather-threat-4-7-4-9-2020.1487/. We also need to watch this weekend and early next week for a potential threat. Keep your head up.

It's been way too quiet for April. Makes me nervous. Lol

 

[Kory]

Go figure...GFS is trending toward the euro. Still not there yet, but it looks like a heavy rain/severe wx threat next weekend.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Holy Batman long range euro lol

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Holy Batman long range euro lol

The entire 240hr period = .

 

[MichelleH]

The entire 240hr period = .

Ashamed to admit I still don't know how to read models, so can you explain in English?

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Ashamed to admit I still don't know how to read models, so can you explain in English?

Robust severe event late Wednesday into Thursday morning, and two tornado outbreaks Sat/Sun and Tues/Wed in the Southeast states.

 

[TheUnknown]

Robust severe event late Wednesday into Thursday morning, and two tornado outbreaks Sat/Sun and Tues/Wed in the Southeast states.

I heard that the parameters were ridiculously impressive. What areas/states in particular do you see as the greatest concern as of now

 

[andyhb]

Most of the first half of April looks dead severe weather wise, may continue beyond that too.

Well this aged like milk. Certainly have some concerns about what the Euro and UK have been suggesting this weekend for the past several runs now.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Still worth wondering how much impact the relative lack of aircraft data will have on model performance. Pretty much impossible to say though whether that would result in more "false positive" severe threats in the medium range, vice versa, or varies depending on the exact conditions.

 

[Kory]

It’s still day 5/6...let’s see if we get model consistency over the next day or two and then we may need to sound the alarms. There’s some ugly solutions for Easter Sunday.