Severe Weather 2020

[Richardjacks]

Check out a couple scans back from GWX as well

woah, guess they are confident that it isn't reaching the ground

 

[Kory]

woah, guess they are confident that it isn't reaching the ground

We’ll find out very soon. I just see a rain curtain and wall cloud.

 

[TCLwx]

We’ll find out very soon. I just see a rain curtain and wall cloud.

Quite surprised to see that signature.

 

[Kory]

When I tell you it is pitch black, it is pitch black.

 

[Kory]

That thing was rotating quite vigorously.

 

[Kory]

Looks like we got another storm that is rotating just NW of town. I bet the camera atop the Tuscaloosa County courthouse is a great look into these storms.

 

[GA Stormchaser]

Looks like we got another storm that is rotating just NW of town. I get the camera atop the Tuscaloosa County courthouse is a great look into these storms.

SPC put a meso disc out for that area. Mentioned the signatures on Radar. Not going to issue watch based on expected brevity and borderline ingredients.



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[Kory]

Our 3rd flash flood warning in a week. I think it’s rained a lot.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

A lot of rotating storms out there, but nothing warned.

 

[bwalk]

GRlevel3 is showing a good bit of mesocyclone activity in West Alabama (11:15 am, CST). Is this accurate? I don't see any verification of this in the SVR mode of GRl.

 

[Kory]

Yeah, that’s not accurate. At all.

 

[bwalk]

Yeah, that’s not accurate. At all.

Yup. GRl is producing these meso rings like popcorn balls. They pop up for just a minute or so and then disappear. Then more appear in other places. Maybe whack-a-mole is a better description. They are built on/produced by algorithms but seem extremely unreliable. Algorithm design problem?

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

boy the gfs just keeps on spitting out bombs of slp in the long range ..

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Newest guidance is in good agreement that the system we were looking at for mid next week is going to be pretty uneventful on the severe side. The 1st week of March is now what I’m watching closely for a potential threat.

 

[Kory]

The base state is quite favorable for severe weather (I.e., the Pacific SST config is -PDOish). The intraseasonal MJO is what is mucking up the pattern now and until that forcing moves out of the West Pac, I suspect the pattern will not be that favorable. It’s why I stated I was not impressed with next week’s system despite the look on the models several days back. +AAM (and positive trending AAM) is not what you look for and expect a favorable severe pattern.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Thanks for the informative post, @Kory. I was getting curious as to why it appears the systems in the near to medium range won't be able to get much going in terms of severe convection, despite the relatively mild winter in the central CONUS with only transient shots of Arctic air (such as the one we are in now).

 

[Kory]

Thanks for the informative post, @Kory. I was getting curious as to why it appears the systems in the near to medium range won't be able to get much going in terms of severe convection, despite the relatively mild winter in the central CONUS with only transient shots of Arctic air (such as the one we are in now).

Yeah, this pattern has been progressive and I don't necessarily think some of the medium to longer range systems as of late kind of fading are a harbinger for future systems. We have zero blocking, so the pattern should continue to favor a very fast-moving jet stream as we surge toward another record daily +AO and likely a record high February +AO.

I honestly don't know what to expect, but the MJO is forecasted to weaken within the next week, which may allow the background pattern to take hold, which would seemingly favor more activity...right as we approach March.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Newest guidance is in good agreement that the system we were looking at for mid next week is going to be pretty uneventful on the severe side. The 1st week of March is now what I’m watching closely for a potential threat.

We are on a strong trend that is increasing this likelihood.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

This thread is awful quite as were heading toward March ... first week of March has my attention for now

 

[Kory]

This thread is awful quite as were heading toward March ... first week of March has my attention for now

I think because of how the last two backpedaled from what was dubbed a significant event. This Tuesday/Wednesday event has some red flags with a heck of an EML and crazy shear values (similar to 1/10-1/11). I think moisture return is still questionable but we’re seeing a better signal for higher moisture return with models slowing this from Tuesday into Wednesday.