Severe WX Wednesday/Thursday/Friday April 17th-19th Severe Threat

[andyhb]

That 12z Euro run was pretty amazing, with a major severe event starting Wednesday in the eastern Plains/MO/AR/LA and running through the night to GA and Carolinas on Thursdays. If the trough broadened just a bit, it would be even more impressive. The 18z GFS was also pretty dangerous looking for both days.

There is a pretty stout signal here across guidance for a possible widespread, multi day event. A large warm sector looks like it will be in place by Wednesday after at least two days of return flow following Sat-Sun's system. Evolution of the trough/timing is definitely a bit still up in the air, but a strong trough, assuming it isn't too linearly forced, interacting with a both a zonally and meridionally extensive warm sector like that could really yield something big. Still plenty of time for changes to either make it more or less volatile, but the ensemble guidance is pretty locked in and also the CIPS extended analogs have one of the strongest signals I've seen this far out for severe wx over quite a large chunk of real estate.

The 18z GFS had an absolutely incredible EML the morning of Wednesday. You're talking widespread very favorable thermodynamic profiles with something like this...

 

[CheeselandSkies]

SPC still holding off on sounding the alarm for this due to some model disagreement.

 

[skelly]

SPC still holding off on sounding the alarm for this due to some model disagreement.

Good. Hope it modifies and mitigates.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

12zgfs stil looking nasty for mid next week wed nite thuraday ...

 

[mattdanielwx]

SPC still holding off on sounding the alarm for this due to some model disagreement.

Yeah, but they should probably at least highlight parts of the Southeast for some kind of threat. You don't have to be super specific when it is six days out. Just say that dynamics are in play for the potential to see severe weather. Just word it saying that specifics on how significant the weather could be will be based on placement/strength of the system as models continue to show different solutions.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Yeah, but they should probably at least highlight parts of the Southeast for some kind of threat. You don't have to be super specific when it is six days out. Just say that dynamics are in play for the potential to see severe weather. Just word it saying that specifics on how significant the weather could be will be based on placement/strength of the system as models continue to show different solutions.

yea. True... 12zgfs game on still

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Spc starting hit on this threat now... large multi day outbreak threat ...

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

View attachment 1361

multi day outbreak potential... euro is very concerning... more so than the gfs at this point... interesting week ahead for sure

 

[Xenesthis]

multi day outbreak potential... euro is very concerning... more so than the gfs at this point... interesting week ahead for sure

I have the distinct impression this will be more of an issue then the current system

 

[mattdanielwx]

I have the distinct impression this will be more of an issue then the current system

Maybe. I think we'll have more instability with the Wed/Thu system than the one that will enter the Southeast tonight and tomorrow. Every event is different. We shall see. Time will only tell.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

Great AFD from BMX this morning concerning the event. HUN being a little cautious.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Great AFD from BMX this morning concerning the event. HUN being a little cautious.

meg Memphis already hinting on it

 

[Xenesthis]

I will go on record on this one. I have a bad feeling about this set up.. I think this one could be quite significant

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

I will go on record on this one. I have a bad feeling about this set up.. I think this one could be quite significant

Starting see March 21 1952 on some analogs early still. But. Ouch.... bad

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Well, I went ahead and took next Wednesday off since the GFS has shown some potential extending into the upper Midwest for a couple runs...still limited in my range since I also couldn't take Thursday off and have to be at work at 3 AM.

 

[Xenesthis]

I know at this time most people are concentrating on the ongoing event. However I was doing some research on the newest models and to be honest is extremely ugly. There really does not seem to be any way around this system being very nasty

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

I know at this time most people are concentrating on the ongoing event. However I was doing some research on the newest models and to be honest is extremely ugly. There really does not seem to be any way around this system being very nasty

Yeah I’m taking off work Wednesday and Thursday myself ... looking over ensembles. I made my
Mind up... now watch me jinx it lol

 

[Equus]

It's looking like my trip is going to fall right in the middle of the worst of it on Thursday so I went ahead and paid for in-flight WiFi assuming the trip still happens heh... I really hate to be away from home for these sorts of things

 

[Xenesthis]

Enough said...When was the last time we had a low pressure area in that region at 985mbs?? I bet somebody here can you can think of a time...GFS output