Severe WX Severe Weather Event April 13-14, 2019

[Taylor Campbell]

Wow! Tomorrow, and Sunday are looking horrific!

 

[Argus]

Tornado warning near San Angelo, TX Concho and Tom Greene counties 730 AM EDT

 

[Liberty4dayz]

Storm in north LA is spinning like a top. Could be a loooong 24 hours....

 

[Austin Dawg]

How far east? Grew up in Bee Cave/Westlake

Pflugerville. We just moved from the Steiner Ranch area. So we are further north and east now.

 

[Richardjacks]

I have lots of homes to show today, so it will be tough for me to follow things until this evening. However, glancing at radar to the west, I got to wonder if they hold back on the high risk due to junk convection already firing around ARKLATEX, just looks messy to me right now.

 

[KoD]

Interested to see if the 12z keeps the southern portion of the risk zone under a cap through the afternoon like 06z 3k NAM does.

 

[rolltide_130]

The 12z HRRR brings the significant tornado risk MUCH further E towards the MS/AL state line and even into parts of W AL late tonight...

This threat is NOT downtrending despite what the 3km NAM wanted to show yesterday I'm afraid..

 

[TornadoFan]

Latest HRRR still showing a string of supercells.

 

[TornadoFan]

But how will the ongoing activity this morning affect the afternoon storms?

 

[Bama Ravens]

Fairly concerning look off the 12z HRRR. This would be around 3am tomorrow.

2am forecast sounding near Tuscaloosa from the 12z HRRR

 

[Richardjacks]

Fairly concerning look off the 12z HRRR. This would be around 3am tomorrow.

2am forecast sounding near Tuscaloosa from the 12z HRRR

That seems to be a trend as actual sbcape is better modeled, but the current rain will have to move out soon to be reality.

 

[Kory]

We have 70+ dews along the coast with an EML sliding in. This rain should have no bearing on the warm front moving north.

 

[Richardjacks]

We have 70+ dews along the coast with an EML sliding in. This rain should have no bearing on the warm front moving north.

That's my thinking, its just more widespread than i expected

 

[TornadoFan]

Was the ongoing convection this morning expected?

 

[Richardjacks]

Was the ongoing convection this morning expected?

It wasnt expected to be this widespread

 

[Richardjacks]

Unless something changes soon, this will kill the expected instability later. It keeps backbuilding and is not lifting north yet.

 

[Kory]

It’s still 12-18 hours from the event in Alabama. I think declaring the severe weather threat over is a bit extreme.

All indications are well have rapid moisture recover considering this is not an organized cold pool MCS.

 

[warneagle]

Yeah it's pretty junky in east TX and northern LA too, maybe that will tamp down the threat some.

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

Unless something changes soon, this will kill the expected instability later. It keeps backbuilding and is not lifting north yet.

It appears to be weakening a little over the last hour. There was a large mass of rain with some pretty decent dbz on radar south of Birmingham earlier and it seemed to fall apart as it moved north. With that said I was not expecting that much rain on radar this morning.

 

[Richardjacks]

It’s still 12-18 hours from the event in Alabama. I think declaring the severe weather threat over is a bit extreme.

All indications are well have rapid moisture recover considering this is not an organized cold pool MCS.

I am in no means declaring it is over, just saying watch for trends, there will be some changes.