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Severe WX Severe Weather Event April 13-14, 2019

Is that sounding contaminated? I never really knew how to determine that aside from obviously unrealistic SRH values and the vertical velocity going nuts.
 
warneagle said:
Is that sounding contaminated? I never really knew how to determine that aside from obviously unrealistic SRH values and the vertical velocity going nuts.
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I also don't think that sounding shows surface based storms yet (big differences in LCL & LFC) . Fairly new to soundings, so I may be off base.
 
GA Stormchaser said:
Some day we may be able to confidently say that, based on a single computer model. Today is not that day...that's why there are a "boat load" of models and it's an art & science of looking at them all and trying to spot consistencies over time. Even when there is consistency, sometimes mother nature throws us a curve ball. Isn't weather great !!!!! Good news is....we won't have to wait long now to find out what is in store.
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Whe
TornadoFan said:
Talk about a huge hodograph.
View attachment 1346
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What is the location of this sounding?
 
No, I'm talking about the MDT risk area tomorrow, sorry, should've been more specific.

Also, that sounding is near Winnfield, LA if I plugged the coordinates into google maps correctly
 
MattMets said:
Multiple confluence bands from HRRR, uptrends from 18z and increases confidence for supercellular stormmode
View attachment 1348
View attachment 1349
More spacing evident here
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That's a disaster in the making if it is correct. 0z runs will be important tonight in assessing risk if storms arrive earlier vs later. I am beginning to think there may discrete cells ahead of the main line moving into west alabama around midnight.
 
Yeah, I guess it's close enough to time that we can start talking about the "H-R" words. Do y'all think they'll go that route? I know the significance of the threat is there, but is confidence high enough?
 
warneagle said:
Yeah, I guess it's close enough to time that we can start talking about the "H-R" words. Do y'all think they'll go that route? I know the significance of the threat is there, but is confidence high enough?
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The way i see it, confidence just doesnt get much higher than this....there is always some question. They may hold until tomorrow just because they can and see if there are changes. There are always some questions, even a few hours before an event.
 
WOW!

00Z-20190413_HRRRSE_prec_radar-15-35-10-100.gif
 
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