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Archive Severe Weather 2019

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Kory said:
There’s certainly a nonzero threat for severe next Wednesday/Thursday with that large trough ejecting out of the Rockies to the Plains.
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agree... jumping ahead quite bit here kory... but after a little cool down late march perhaps... you seeing signs of a very active april for severe weather across Dixie and mid south? some the experts thinking that way....
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
agree... jumping ahead quite bit here kory... but after a little cool down late march perhaps... you seeing signs of a very active april for severe weather across Dixie and mid south? some the experts thinking that way....
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Looks like we'll have quiet week or two after this week's system. We get into northwest flow and a cooler regime. But, it appears that there will be a resurgence of the low amplitude and suppressed jet that will come into the West Coast to close out March with threats ramping up again to open April.
 
Upcoming Bombogenesis Event for Oklahoma

Don't know that this qualifies for severe weather but 60 mph wind gust can do plenty of minor damage. A surface low will strengthen north of Ok tomorrow (Tues. 3/12/19) in such an out-of- the-ordinary fashion as to qualify for "bombogenesis" classification. Bombogenesis occurs when a surface low deepens 24mb or more in a 24 hour period. These are relatively rare but if it verifies Ok will receive the brunt of the high wind produced by the system.

These winds are independent of severe thunderstorm events.
The pressure gradients on the images below are just wild.

1552328693108.png
 
NAM pops a rather decent threat in the midwest Thursday morning into afternoon. It's the only model that really pops out that threat, so it's kinda an outlier. However, this wouldn't be the first time NAM sniffs out a threat before other model packs does, so something to watch.
 
Our local NWS discussion is pretty interesting. They have toned down the tornado talk as of now. Here are some excerpts:


000
FXUS64 KEWX 112327
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
627 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2019

Late Tuesday evening begins the Pacific frontal driven marginal to
slight risk threat that will carry over into early Wednesday. The
Marginal area bisects the area along the I-35 corridor Tuesday night
and shifts east of I-35 after daybreak Wednesday. Areas west of a
Liberty Hill to Bulverde line are in a slight risk area where
discrete supercells and connecting squall line segments will be
possible. With CAPES generally below 2000 through the event, speed
shear will be the primary influence on a severe threat, with hail
being more of concern over the southern Edwards Plateau,
transitioning to a damaging wind threat as a more organized squall
line takes shape over the Hill Country.

The pattern is expected to move through the area fairly quick, so
only a few spots to see cell training might be able to see a quick 2
inches of rain, while most areas can expect around 1/2 inch or less.

The large upper low is expected to generate breezy conditions by late
Tuesday afternoon with wind gusts to 30 mph possible through late
Tuesday night.

By late Wednesday morning the cold front and line of weakened storms
should be east of I-35, with a few stronger storms picking up
strength with daytime heating becoming an influence the storms as
they enter East TX. More wind gusts to 30 mph are expected in the
wake of the front by midday Wednesday, and a few gusts to 35 mph
could develop over the higher terrain of the southern Edwards
Plateau. The upper low will be curving northward early Wednesday;
thus there should be a considerable daytime thermal gradient from N
to S over our area where the higher terrain to the NW has a chance to
mix down some of the cooler mid level temperatures, and the southern
areas see mostly a downsloping westerly wind.
 
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CheeselandSkies said:
Seems like kind of an underwhelming severe threat for such a deep low. The instability just isn't there. NAM gonna NAM but right now the forecast is just 50s and rain for Thursday.
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Wonder how much longer we going keep saying little instability... figure time we get to April . That won’t be much issue as we start tapping moisture from the Caribbean....
 
Peter Griffin said:
Man that thing looks like it had some pretty nasty motion.
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Yeah Germany is certainly not immune to violent tornadoes. There were two powerful tornadoes there in the late 18th century which are some of the earliest recorded violent tornadoes. It doesn’t get them quite as frequently as France and Poland, but they’re certainly not uncommon. There was a weak tornado close to where I was living in Freiburg when I was over there in 2013.
 
Kory said:
Looking forward, things will begin to heat up the last week in March, with several GFS ensemble members showing rather ominous solutions. EPS only goes out to 10 days, but that also looks like it is headed toward an active solution with troughing dropping into the Western U.S. and a rather low amplitude pattern taking shape.
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With the numerous well-spaced and long-lived supercells that occurred yesterday, I suspect it was just a tick higher on the moisture removed from a high risk/PDS day with multiple tornadoes on the caliber of Beauregard...and some of them would have been after dark. Yeesh.

Usually coastal convection or capping (too much and nothing goes up in a wide area of favorable parameter space, as was seen last 3/19 south of the Jacksonville cell, or too little + too much forcing and there is quick upscale growth and/or cell interference) throws a wrench in things to some extent. Neither of those were an issue yesterday.
 
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CheeselandSkies said:
With the numerous well-spaced and long-lived supercells that occurred yesterday, I suspect it was just a tick higher on the moisture removed from a high risk/PDS day with multiple tornadoes on the caliber of Beauregard...and some of them would have been after dark. Yeesh.

Usually coastal convection or capping (too much and nothing goes up in a wide area of favorable parameter space, as was seen last 3/19 south of the Jacksonville cell, or too little + too much forcing and there is quick upscale growth and/or cell interference) throws a wrench in things to some extent. Neither of those were an issue yesterday.
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The EML is very strong for this being an El Niño year, which is usually plagued by poor lapse rates and messy convection. I can’t really think of any system, this year, that was completely mucked up by the subtropical jet alone.
 
12Z OP GFS has a very amped system for the 25th-26th which verbatim would be a widespread severe weather outbreak but probably TOO amped for an ideal tornado scenario (although yesterday showed that's not always the case), then after that moves out it has the dreaded long-wavelength, low amplitude trough looming at the end of the run. Of course this will change many times between now and verification hour, but the idea is there and supported by the ensembles.
 
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