Severe WX Severe Risk 2/23-2/24

[Hailey]

Reed timmer is calling it an outbreak on Facebook


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[TornadoFan]

Reed timmer is calling is an outbreak on Facebook


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A little early to be using the O word?

 

[Hailey]

Here is Reeds map


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[tennessee storm chaser]

currently we have no convection going along the gulf coast this time... latest satellite image... showing some nice breaks in sky...

 

[NWMSGuy]

currently we have no convection going along the gulf coast this time... latest satellite image... showing some nice breaks in sky...

What do you feel about Reeds outlook? Looks like my local is on the western periphery of his higher end outlook.

 

[TornadoFan]

Curious as to what the current storms are gonna do to the atmosphere tomorrow.

 

[amp1998]

A little early to be using the O word?

No not really. We are now less than 24 hours away from when the event is supposed to unfold, and even the least aggressive model guidance now suggests a rather sizable event for being in the cold season. Most CAMs now support a significant tornado threat in Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Curious as to what the current storms are gonna do to the atmosphere tomorrow.

good chance they could n should lay down some outflow boundaries for tomorrow.... good question

 

[Taylor Campbell]

I'm going to start heading toward northern MS super duper early tomorrow morning. Just got done looking over new model data, and fully expecting a moderate risk tomorrow. This is looking really bad on the high resolution models.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

What do you feel about Reeds outlook? Looks like my local is on the western periphery of his higher end outlook.

not bad call to be honest... I would still put far southeast n east Arkansas counties in also

 

[Hailey]

When should the next spc outlook be out?


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[tennessee storm chaser]

When should the next spc outlook be out?


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tomorrows outlook be around 3 or cst

 

[TornadoFan]

About 2 and a half hours from now.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

About 2 and a half hours from now.

think that's day 2 outlook right?

 

[TornadoFan]

think that's day 2 outlook right?

Yes.

 

[warneagle]

When should the next spc outlook be out?


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midnight central

 

[warneagle]

Moderate Risk is out.

 

[TornadoFan]

SPC now has an area of moderate risk up.

 

[warneagle]

 

[champal3003]

Interesting write up from BMX:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1103 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

.UPDATE...
Evening Update and 06Z Aviation.
.SHORT TERM...

Battle of the airmasses continues over Central Alabama late this
evening. The warm front was still located just north of the US 80
corridor. South of the boundary, unseasonably moist airmass in
place. Surface dew points in the 60s and temperatures rose into
the 80s earlier this afternoon. North of the front, east southeast
flow was hanging on with temperatures in the 50s. This northern
airmass was undergoing modification as dew points continue slowly
climbing. Southerly isentropic lift and larger scale ascent will
keep showers in the forecast area wide overnight. The low level
jet ramps up west of the area and the heaviest rainfall will be
just to our north. Many locations remain totally saturated, so any
rainfall may have detrimental affects.

The latest HI-RES/CAMS have the warm front shifting northward on
Saturday afternoon. The airmass has near record precipitable
water, dew points, and warmth associated with it. Something more
like we experience in Spring. There are challenges as to where the
best forcing develops and where the instability forms. But all
indications are that severe thunderstorm development looks better
for tomorrow. More discussion on this in a few hours.