Severe WX Severe Risk 2/23-2/24

[TornadoFan]

Warm front is starting to rapidly move north, according to Reed.

 

[Hailey]

Reed is now using the words “ this is as dangerous as it gets for Dixie Alley”


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[gangstonc]

Reed is now using the words “ this is as dangerous as it gets for Dixie Alley”


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That’s Reed for you. He gets excited.

 

[Kory]

HRRR has a lot of convection breaking out of AL during the afternoon, but I'm not sure we'll have the support that will be to our west at that time.

 

[Bama Ravens]

Reed is now using the words “ this is as dangerous as it gets for Dixie Alley”


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While this is a significant threat over parts of the SE today, I think Reed can get caught up in hyperbole sometimes.

 

[Kory]

While this is a significant threat over parts of the SE today, I think Reed can get caught up in hyperbole sometimes.

Yeah, we're 5 days from meteorological spring here in Dixie. Tornadoes happen. Just have a way to get warnings and have a plan for shelter and you'll be fine.

 

[Hailey]

Is it just me or does it seem like cells are starting to break from the main line?


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[Kory]

Also, it's 75/70 in Tuscaloosa. We're gonna reach convective temps easily in a bit.

 

[CAL]

Currently seeing three potential issues with this system that are simply gnawing at me:

#1-Critical angle, the angle between the 0-500 meter bulk shear vector and the surface storm relative wind vector is forecast to be between 30 and 40 degrees by the majority of the models, especially when the Bunkers right motion vector is not applied to this situation (not all supercells move to the right of the mean wind in tornado events, especially in the deep south). The reason I chose to not apply Bunkers RM here is due to the fact that my gut tells me low level shear is a bit too strong for right movers based on research. Moreover, critical angles within the aforementioned range are very rarely associated with significant tornado events, and only if certain parameters are present to take up the slack.

#2-There is a significant weakness in the mid level storm relative wind structure, namely where the mean wind (non-deviant gold square on SHARPpy soundings) storm motion estimate is directly on or very near the hodograph trace for a depth of at least 4 km. This can be a strong signal for struggling mesocyclones, and if buoyancy is not high enough, some upscale growth can occur... even if just in segments/clusters that form from struggling convective cores/supercells. This weakness, existing between 2-6 km in most of the models this morning, also indicates a cessation in the veering of the storm relative wind vector with height... not good at all for fledgling mesos, because as we know, SRH was originally intended by Lilly and Dr. Davies-Jones to be a parameter for predicting the development of mid-level mesocyclones only, not low level (however there is some carry over).

#3-It's possible that high level storm relative winds are too strong for the given situation. SPC mesoanalysis currently has 80-85, even as high as 90 knot storm relative winds at anvil level moving across a large portion of the Enhanced/Moderate Risks. Our homies Rich Thompson and Dr. Rasmussen both say that's a bit too much per peer reviewed literature.

It's possible that these items are meaningless and all heck will break loose today, sure wouldn't be the first time I've blown a forecast...certainly won't be the last

 

[Richardjacks]

Still see more evidence of storms breaking out well ahead of the line but upper ridge trying to hang on with anticyclonic flow aloft.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Currently seeing three potential issues with this system that are simply gnawing at me:

#1-Critical angle, the angle between the 0-500 meter bulk shear vector and the surface storm relative wind vector is forecast to be between 30 and 40 degrees by the majority of the models, especially when the Bunkers right motion vector is not applied to this situation (not all supercells move to the right of the mean wind in tornado events, especially in the deep south). The reason I chose to not apply Bunkers RM here is due to the fact that my gut tells me low level shear is a bit too strong for right movers based on research. Moreover, critical angles within the aforementioned range are very rarely associated with significant tornado events.

#2-There is a significant weakness in the mid level storm relative wind structure, namely where the mean wind (non-deviant gold square on SHARPpy soundings) storm motion estimate is directly on or very near the hodograph trace for a depth of at least 4 km. This can be a strong signal for struggling mesocyclones, and if buoyancy is not high enough, some upscale growth can occur... even if just in segments/clusters that form from struggling convective cores/supercells. This weakness, existing between 2-6 km in most of the models this morning, also indicates a cessation in the veering of the storm relative wind vector with height... not good at all for fledgling mesos, because as we know, SRH was originally intended by Lilly and Dr. Davies-Jones to be a parameter for predicting the development of mid-level mesocyclones only, not low level (however there is some carry over).

#3-It's possible that high level storm relative winds are too strong for the given situation. SPC mesoanalysis currently has 80-85, even as high as 90 knot storm relative winds at anvil level moving across a large portion of the Enhanced/Moderate Risks. Our homies Rich Thompson and Dr. Rasmussen both say that's a bit too much per peer reviewed literature.

It's quite possible that these items are meaningless and all heck will break loose today, sure wouldn't be the first time I've blown a forecast...certainly won't be the last

don't feel bad... every outbreak has potential issues to look at ... even 4 27 11 .... getting bad feeling on some things also

 

[Daryl]

 

[Bama Ravens]

Wonder if we see a PDS tornado watch in the area of the moderate risk zone?

 

[Freshgeek]

Wonder if we see a PDS tornado watch in the area of the moderate risk zone?

SPC mentioned strong tornadoes expected. If they still think that when they're issuing the watch, then it will definitely be a PDS

 

[amanda90]

This is the strongest warning from local mets (that I've seen) so far - I think they've been playing this a little conservative.

Still on the fence about what to expect here in the Memphis area; there's been cloud cover all day and rain only just stopped a couple of hours ago. Not sure if that's going to help us avoid the worst of it or if it's not even going to matter with the warm front.

 

[Kory]

Special balloon launch by BMX will tell us a lot about the atmosphere this afternoon.

 

[warneagle]

Wonder if we see a PDS tornado watch in the area of the moderate risk zone?

Can't imagine it wouldn't be with obvious significant tornado potential on the table. This MD isn't gonna be the main watch though.

 

[warneagle]

Is this thread live by the way? I wanna know if I can spare my F5 key or not.

 

[JayF]

Is this thread live by the way? I wanna know if I can spare my F5 key or not.

Yes it is live. Your F5 key is safe for today

 

[warneagle]

Yes it is live. Your F5 key is safe for today

Alright, thanks. Seems inauspicious to be hitting the F5 key during a severe weather event in any case...