Severe WX Severe Risk 2/23-2/24

[Richardjacks]

Well, I saw an 11 earlier, so I guess not lol

yeah, I do not know the scale.

 

[Equus]

will be interesting to see what happens to those as they move north while the shear starts to increase

Yepyep. I'm honestly interested if the little cells over Aliceville and Gainesville hold on for the better environment if they can keep themselves distinct. Aliceville one might be weakly spinning already.

 

[Richardjacks]

Yepyep. I'm honestly interested if the little cells over Aliceville and Gainesville hold on for the better environment if they can keep themselves distinct. Aliceville one might be weakly spinning already.

true but in general it just looks messy, may mess with overall environment

 

[Richardjacks]

Yepyep. I'm honestly interested if the little cells over Aliceville and Gainesville hold on for the better environment if they can keep themselves distinct. Aliceville one might be weakly spinning already.

The one west of Boligee is now a lightning producer

 

[amanda90]

Line of storms holding sub-severe in West Tennessee so far...

 

[Equus]

true but in general it just looks messy, may mess with overall environment

Yeah messy storm mode's always my #1 question for events like this, I'm not seeing this batch be distinct.

Seeing lightning on RS now near Epes. Getting echo tops of 29kft. Pretty impressive this early on.

 

[Kory]

Yeah messy storm mode's always my #1 question for events like this, I'm not seeing this batch be distinct.

Seeing lightning on RS now near Epes. Getting echo tops of 29kft. Pretty impressive this early on.

VBV can promote upscale growth into a line which leads to messy storm mode. We’ll see how storm mode looks later as wind fields strengthen.

 

[Richardjacks]

VBV can promote upscale growth into a line which leads to messy storm mode. We’ll see how storm mode looks later as wind fields strengthen.

I suspect we will start to see significant changes by 5pm if not, yeah it will be a mess.

 

[andyhb]

Rotation with the storm near Monticello, AR, which will be moving into the most favorable parameter space over the next few hours.

 

[TornadoFan]

rotation just ramped up in the last scan

 

[StormStalker]

Hey Guests! Take a second and join the discussion!

 

[Richardjacks]

sorry for the stupid question, are we in live mode yet?

 

[MichelleH]

sorry for the stupid question, are we in live mode yet?

Yep

 

[Richardjacks]

it is a little early but check out the cell north of Gordo Al

 

[WesL]

sorry for the stupid question, are we in live mode yet?

Yep

Yes, it is and I'll add a banner. Thanks for the reminder.

 

[Vols1]

Think things in and around Nashville will be unstable enough to support supercells?

 

[GA Stormchaser]

Cell just west of Newellton AR (SW of Vicksburg MS) looks to be getting interesting. Looks to be over 40Kft already.

 

[Equus]

it is a little early but check out the cell north of Gordo Al

Lightning continues to increase in the storm near Eutaw as well... these are really intriguing if VBV doesn't keep them in check

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

it is a little early but check out the cell north of Gordo Al

One around Eutaw looks suspicious

 

[Equus]

New MD for west-central AL...

Mesoscale Discussion 0126
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

Areas affected...west-central AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 231958Z - 232100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are intensifying in west-central AL and at least
one has exhibited weak/transient rotation indicative of a marginal
supercell. Will monitor convective trends in the short term
regarding the need for a tornado watch before the risk of severe
weather increases later this evening.

DISCUSSION...A couple of storms have developed during the past 1-2
hours near the AL/MS border to the east of Meridian, MS and west of
Tuscaloosa, AL. The storms have developed in the warm sector and
seemingly due to both diurnal heating and within a zone of low-level
warm/moist advection. The thunderstorm activity will likely
coincide with the diurnal heating cycle and it is possible this
activity weakens with the onset of diurnal cooling. However, if 1
or 2 storms can become bootstrapped and become unequivocally
surface-based, the transition to supercell would occur and a risk
for a tornado or two may accompany these storms. This possible
scenario is highly uncertain but there is greater confidence the
severe risk will increase towards early evening as the thunderstorms
over MS move into western AL.

..Smith/Grams.. 02/23/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...